Murray: Dems will get their map

By Art Gallagher

New Jersey will have a legislature controlled by the Democratic party for another ten years, according to Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.

In a column posted on Politickernj and on his own blog Murray dissects the tea leaves of that Alan Rosenthal, the tie breaking 11th member of redistricting commission, revealed in his public statements about the standards that will be used to determine the new legislative map.  Murray concludes that the Rosenthal approved map will result in 22 “safe” Democratic districts and 18 “safe” Republican districts.

Murray says that Rosenthal values “continuity of representation” ….that incumbents should be drawn into districts where the majority of voters are already represented by them…over “competitiveness”  and that as a result the new map will have a “deminis” impact on the status quo.

Murray also implied that the Democrats have outmaneuvered the Republican in there redistricting preparation. He says Democrats organized themselves to negotiate with the 11th members of the commission whereas the Republicans organized themselves to challenge the new map in court, where they will likely lose.

Murray’s margin of error is +/- 100% of Rosenthal’s consistency with his historical body of work.

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COAH HAS MADE NJ HOUSING UNAFFORDABLE

By Michael Laffey

As an attorney I am often exposed, through my clients, to examples of government ineptitude.  Truly there is no scarier phrase then “I am from the government and I’m here to help”. 

I recently came across a most glaring example of this.  Twenty years ago this person purchased a “low income housing unit”   These are typically units that that are built by developers so that towns can meet their COAH obligations.  In return the developer gets increased density for its market rate housing.  More about that later.  These units have deed restrictions that limit the amount the value of the house can appreciate.

This person is now ready to move out of their low income housing.  Here is the problem.  There are no buyers who qualify as low income.  In an effort to assist this person I contacted some experts in this area and found out that even when there are low income buyers available they can not qualify for a mortgage. Apparently there are numerous vacant low income housing units just sitting there. It seems thanks to an activist Supreme Court and an inept government we have housing units that no-one can buy.  

Now this is not the first time I have come across flaws in the COAH system.  I have also seen examples where someone right out of college had income low enough to purchase low or moderate income housing and a relative willing to help them purchase it. Five years later their income is increased substantially, they have a fat bank account and a BMW in the driveway while living in housing that costs them a pittance. Not really the people who needed government intervention to get a leg up.

Another problem, abuse really, are the people who have illegally rented out their COAH units and made a nice sum of cash.  This is more common then you would think.

The real problem however is that COAH housing has done more to increase the cost to live in New Jersey then anything else including overpaid government employees and public employee benefit packages.  Here is why. For the last 30 years developers have been able to force communities to allow them to build developments in excess of what the municipality has zoned for by agreeing to also build a small number of low and moderate income housing. This is due to the ill conceived judicial legislation coming out of the Mount Laurel line of cases.

How has this driven up the cost to live in New Jersey?  For every residential unit that is built a municipality generally spends $1.50 in services for every $1.00 it gets in tax revenue.  This is the reason that taxes are generally higher the more populated a community is.

So thanks to government we have a program to provide affordable housing that really does not work AND has actually made it more expensive to live in New Jersey. In my opinion it has also degraded our quality of life by overdeveloping our communities. For these reasons affordable housing is a perfect example of an area that should not be the responsibility of government.

How do we fix the problem?  Unfortunately since the Supreme Court decision that started the whole mess is based on rights the court has found in our state constitution there is only one way to fix the problem.  We need an amendment to the State Constitution which in effect overrules the Mount Laurel cases and does away with the Council On Affordable Housing. This will get the government out of the affordable housing business and return zoning control to local municipalities.  Since our Legislature in thirty years has not had the courage to do this that will not likely happen until we get initiative and referendum in the State of New Jersey.  This will do more to control property taxes going forward then anything else being done.

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Monmouth County Ahead of the Curve

Celebrating Monmouth’s GOP Women during Women’s History Month

By Christine Giordano Hanlon, Esq., Monmouth County Republican State Committeewoman

This is not your grandfather’s Republican Party…at least not in Monmouth County.  For years, women have been making big strides within our party as elected officials, local party leaders and activists.  While the number of women in elected office is generally on the decline, Monmouth County Republican women continue to move ahead with the backing of party leadership both at the local, County and State level.

Monmouth’s GOP women have a strong presence in State government, perhaps the strongest of all of the 21 counties.  Former Sheriff Kim Guadagno made history when she was elected to serve as the first Lieutenant Governor in 2009.  In the legislature, 36% of the female Republican legislators are from Monmouth County.  Senator Jennifer Beck (D-12) is one of only three female Republicans in the State Senate.  Of the eight Republican women in the State Assembly, three call Monmouth County home.   Mary Pat Angelini, Caroline Casagrande and Amy Handlin represent Monmouth County’s 11th, 12th and 13th Districts, respectively.  

At the County level, two of the three Monmouth County constitutional officers are Republican women.  County Clerk M. Claire French and Surrogate Rosemarie Peters have served the citizens of Monmouth County for many years.  Freeholder Lillian Burry has been a trailblazer for women across our County, having served as Mayor of Colts Neck, Freeholder since 2006 and the first woman in County history to serve as Freeholder Director in 2008.  And the Republican controlled Board of Freeholders have appointed women to some of the most important positions in our County – County Counsel, County Administrator and Clerk of the Board.

In our towns, Monmouth Republican women serve as local elected officials, Municipal Chairs and grass roots activists.  Mayors Nancy Grbelja (Millstone), Ann Marie Conte (Wall), Janet Tucci (West Long Branch), and many more GOP women serving on the governing bodies of 23 of our 53 municipalities, have demonstrated that Republican women are electable leaders who are making significant contributions to local government.  Approximately 30% of our 53 local Municipal Chairs are women, a number that has grown dramatically in the past three years.  Women have also taken on leadership roles in volunteer efforts, spending countless hours doing the ground work on campaigns and forcefully advocating on important issues. Their efforts help advance the success of our party at every level of government.

Monmouth County’s Republican Women’s Federation is the one of the strongest and fastest growing county Federations in the State of New Jersey, boasting an increase in membership from 49 members in 2007 to 200 members in 2010.  In addition, for the first time in the history of the Monmouth County Affiliated Republican Club, traditionally the male counterpart to the Women’s Federation, a woman was elected Vice President in 2011.

March is National Women’s History month.  It is the perfect time to recognize both the Republican women who have accomplished so much, and the County and local party leadership that supports them.  Monmouth County’s Republican Party is certainly ahead of the curve with respect to women in government, and it is with great respect and admiration that I congratulate all of the Monmouth GOP women who have stepped up to lead, to inspire, to serve.  I am very proud to be a Monmouth County Republican.

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What really matters. Chapter 2

By Art Gallagher

Michael sent me a text at 10:17 AM that he and Ruth could go back to their hotel room now and thanking me for monitoring the situation.  I had sent him a message at 8:42 telling him that the news reports were saying that the waves in Hawaii were insignificant.   His email message to the family simply stated that all was ok and that they were thankful and tired.

In the 5 1/2 hours between communications with my brother who was in the path of a tsunami,  I kept praying, monitoring the news on TV and the Internet and gave my best effort at my normal early morning routine of checking the news sites for material to comment on at MMM.

At app.com there was coverage of a four alarm fire in Ocean Grove.  My mother spends a lot of time in Ocean Grove.  Not often during this time of year, but she could be there.  Calls to her home and cell went unanswered.  Could both my mother and brother be in harms way at the same time on opposite sides of the planet?!  Mom called back later from Michael’s home in California where she was looking after his teenage daughters while he and Ruth were vacationing.

So far on this Friday morning nothing bad had happened to any of my loved ones, as far as I knew for sure, but events of the day were shaking me up.   Word from earlier in the week that a beloved aunt needed a liver transplant was shocking.  Now my brother’s life and perhaps my mother ‘s were in imminent danger.  The normal business of living that I usually approached urgently seemed trivial today.  The news from Japan was devastating, but it wasn’t personal.

Just after I received Michael’s message that he and Ruth were fine, my wife arrived home from a doctor’s appointment.   Lori was relieved to hear that Michael and Ruth were well.  She looked happier than I had seen her looking in quite sometime.  The surgical procedure she had a week earlier for a back injury had worked well.

It was getting to be late in the morning and I was late in getting to the business of living.  However, I spent some time filling Lori in on what had happened since I was awakened for no apparent reason in the middle of the night.  Lori asked me what time I was awakened.  “2:47 AM,” I replied.  At that very moment a TV anchor’s voice announced, ” At 2:46 this morning east coast time a 8.9 level earthquake hit off the coast of Japan.”

I still can’t get my head around that one.  It could mean something or it could mean nothing.  I believe in God and believe there is such a thing as miracles and divine intervention.  I also believe that the power and nature of God is beyond human understanding .  I am suspect of those who claim to understand God and tell other people how to live based on their “knowing.” 

I don’t “know” that God woke me up in the middle of the night nor do I “know” that I felt an earthquake on the other side of the planet.  I don’t “know” that my prayers made a difference in keeping my brother and his wife safe. I know I woke up in the middle of the night.  I know I communicated with my brother via human technology and thanks to that technology I know he and his wife are safe.

I believe I received a wake up call.  That while I’ve been urgently engaged in the business of living, I’ve paid less attention to what really matters than I need to.

When I arrived home on Friday night after dealing with the business of living, Lori filled me in on the good news from her doctors appointment.   The procedure on her back injury had worked.  Her suffering was greatly reduced. There was more work to be done, but she told me that the doctor said she had made his day when she told him she felt as though she had a new future.  She had been mentally preparing to live in pain and with limited mobility for the rest of her life and now she felt she wasn’t going to suffer that way.   If she had previously told me that she was going through that, I didn’t hear it.   This really mattered.

Lori will have another procedure in a few weeks, which will keep me working on the business of living.  Those health insurance premiums need to be paid and it really matters.

News sources say the events of Friday shifted the earth’s axis.   I’ve been moved.  Were you?

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What really matters. Chapter 1

By Art Gallagher

Sometimes the business of living keeps us from appreciating what really matters in life.  I suppose I should speak for myself, but I’ve heard that’s true for others too.   Unfortunately it takes an unexpected catastrophic or potentially catastrophic event to wake me up.   Yesterday was a day filled with several wake up calls for me.

I was awakened out of a deep sleep for no apparent reason in the middle of the night.  The digital clock in the bedroom read 2:47 AM.    I went to the bathroom because that’s what men in their 50’s do when they wake up in the middle of the night, and tried to go back to sleep.   But I had an annoying restlessness.   I turned on the television to find something mindless to help me sleep.  I tossed and turned for a while and felt myself starting to doze off when there was an emergency news break on the TV about a big earthquake in Japan and a coming tsunami.  “That’s terrible,” I thought to myself as I rolled over into what I hoped was the doze that would last at least a couple of hours.

The next thing I noticed I was on my feet heading towards my computer.  I didn’t remember giving up on the nights sleep and getting to work.  I was just up and walking towards my computer.  The television still had the news of tsunami in the Pacific going.   The digital clock read 3:40.

There was an email from my brother Michael that had arrived at 3:35 AM.  It had been sent from his Blackberry.

His email was distributed to his family.  He and his wife were at a resort on the north shore of Oahu.  There was a tsunami warning because of a big earthquake off the coast of Japan.  It was 10:30 PM in Oahu and the waves were expected to hit at 2:30 AM.   The hotel was having an information meeting at 11:15.  They were on the 5th floor of a 6 story building. They will send more info when they have it. And finally he sent us the name of his lawyer.

WTF!  Suddenly the news on the television was personal.  I was wide awake.  It was now 3:45 AM and everyone else on my brother’s email distribution list was likely sleeping.

I directed my Internet browser towards the resort’s website to get a look at this 6 story building my younger brother was staying at.   It looked to be a well constructed concrete structure, but it was right on the shore line!  The TV just had a picture of a building in Japan falling into the water.

I started switching the TV between FoxNews and CNN for news from Hawaii and surfing the web for Hawaiian news and government sites.  CNN was doing a better job than Fox in covering the events.  A web cam from Waikiki was playing loud Hawaiian music that woke up my wife.

One of the news stations had an announcement that Hawaiian police were instructing locals to follow evacuation routes to higher ground and instructing visitors to return to their hotels. WTF!  Locals are being told to head up the mountains and visitors are being told to head towards the water!  The news shows on TV were talking about something called “vertical evacuation” which means get to the highest floor in the building. There was footage of another building in Japan falling into the water and the wave in Japan was on fire.  I don’t know about this vertical evacuation business. 

I checked out the evacuation maps on the Hawaiian state website.   If it were me and my wife at that resort, we would leaving that 6 story building on the beach and hiking up the mountain.  One news site said the police had established road blocks on the evacution routes.  “Where’s the jail?” I imagined myself telling the officer as I ignored his order to go back to my hotel.

No doubt my brother was getting all of his information locally.  He didn’t even know that I had read his email.

One of the Hawaiian government sites said to stay off the phone lines, land and cell, because heavy phone traffic can interfere with emergency communications.  I remembered that being so from 9-11. 

Michael had sent his email from his Blackberry. I sent him I text at 4:34,”Praying for you and monitoring internet for evacuation info.  I hope you are being moved away from the coast line.”   8 minutes later I get a text back from him, “Thanks, Artie. We’re on the 5th floor of a building on elevated point. 6 feet of water expected. 1st and 2nd fls evacuated as precaution. All guests in hallways.”

“I saw a photo of the building on the resort’s site,” I responded, “I would move to higher ground off the coast, but I know you will make the right decisions.”    Michael now knew that he had another source of information if he wanted or needed it.  All I could do now was pray, ask others to pray, which I did on facebook while waiting for Michael to repsond to my first text, and keep monitoring. 

It was now 4:50 AM.  What a way to start the day.    My wake up calls were just starting.

More to come later today or tomorrow.

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Newt Gingrich Announces His Presidential Exploratory Committee

By Art Gallagher

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich announced the formation of a presidential exploratory committee today in an email announcement to his supporters and friends.

In his announcement and fundraising appeal, Gingrich said:

Over the last year I’ve watched a failure in leadership, and have spent a lot of time thinking and praying about taking the first step. I am writing you to ask for your advice, as Callista and I consider whether or not I should run in 2012.

What I need to do right now is listen to and learn from people all across America. I need to be certain that if I run, my candidacy will have the support it will need to make a positive difference for our nation. However, I can’t do it alone. What I am hoping you will do is help me and support me during this exploratory process.

I have asked a lot from you over the years. In return you have humbled me by demonstrating your talent, energy, and financial sacrifice that reflect how deeply you and others like you, care about our nation. You are an indispensable part of helping me decide what to do next, and I have to tell you, I need you now more than ever before. If I run, this will be the single biggest challenge we’ve ever faced together. So, success depends entirely upon you. I want to hear from you. I need to hear from you. So let me ask you:

1. Would you support my candidacy if I were to run for President?
2. Will you support my exploratory effort with a financial contribution
of $35, $50, $100, or even more at this vitally important early
“Newt Explore 2012” stage today?

I am convinced that the 2012 election is the best opportunity to realize all we have worked for together over all the past years. We must move from the world that fails — to the world that works. The time is now to reject the Left’s ideas, and replace them with better ideas; ideas that fulfill our bigger dreams for ourselves, our families and our country.

Now is the time. I need your help. I need to know if you believe I could run and serve effectively as President of the United States. And I need to know today. I am waiting to hear from you.

Gingrich’s website is at NewtExplore2012.com

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Legislative Redistricting Could Create Havoc For Incumbents

By Art Gallagher

The New Jersey Legislative Reapportionment Commission has until April 3rd to produce a new map of legislative districts.  Candidates for State Senate and Assembly from the major parties will have to submit their nominating petitions during the week of April 11th, unless there is legislation that changes the date of the petition submission and/or the primary.

Patrick Murray of the Monmouth University Polling Institute has produced two maps for columns he has written at Politickernj.  Both his “Constitutional” map, which Murray concedes is only almost constitutional as conflicting standards make a purely constitutional map impossible, and his “Competitive” map would create conflicts among Monmouth County incumbent legislators based upon their residency.

Murray’s “constitutional map” (town list here) would put Assemblymen Declan O’Scanlon (Little Silver) and Dave Rible in the 11th district, based upon their respective residencies, and move Assemblywoman Mary Pat Angelini (Ocean Township) into the 9th where there would be a seat available as Murray’s constitutional map moves Assembly incumbents Brain Rumpf and Diane Grove into the 2nd district. 

Senators Jennifer Beck and Joe Kyrillos would be competing for the Senate seat in the 13th.  Robert Singer would become the incumbent Senator in the 12th district (Beck’s seat) and there would be an Assembly vacancy in 12.  The 12th vacancy would presumably be filled by a resident of Colts Neck, Farmingdale, Howell, Jackson or Lakewood.   Lakewood would be the largest town in the district by population.

Murray’s “competitive” map (town list), like his “constitutional” map also puts Red Bank and Middletown in the 13th district, pitting Beck and Kyrillos against each other.  The competitive map moves Old Bridge out of the 13th into a newly constituted 40th district comprised of Middlesex County towns.  This moves Sam Thomspon (Old Bridge) into a more competitive district.  Declan O’Scanlon (Little Silver) would be an incumbent in the new 13th.

Caroline Casagrande (Colts Neck) in the only incumbent in Murray’s competitive 12th.  Casagrande could step up and seek the Senate seat, creating two Assembly vacancies.  Look for Freeholder Director Rob Clifton (Matawan) to seek a seat in the legislature in this scenario.  Freeholder Lillian Burry (Colts Neck) could be a contender too.  On the Democratic side, Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornick would be a likely contender for a vacant seat.  A Casagrande vs. Hornick battle for Senate could be a classic race. 

All incumbents are safe in Murray’s competitive 11th.

One source close to the redistricting process told me that Murray’s maps are a “nice rainy day read,” and that neither the Democrats or Republicans proposed maps are close to his scenarios.  I guess that makes this piece a nice rainy day read too.

There will be a great deal of uncertainty and speculation until the actual new map is released.  And there is uncertain information about how incumbent conflicts based upon residency would be handled. One GOP leader told me that “he thought” that someone could run for a seat in a district that they don’t live in, but would have to move into the district within one year if they won.   Another official said there in no residency requirement in the State Constitution and that statutes governing residency could be easily changed after the new map is released.

Whatever happens there will be a lot of moving and shaking during the first couple of weeks in April, and a lot of hair pulling until then.

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Christie’s Attorney General’s Office Picking Up Where Christie’s U.S. Attorney’s Office Left Off

By Art Gallagher

U.S. Attorney Paul Fishman may not think there is a culture of public corruption in New Jersey, but that doesn’t mean that The Soprano State is no longer plagued with graft.

As Gannett’s Bob Jordan points out, New Jersey Attorney General Paula Dowd, who works for Governor Chris Christie and used to work for U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, is continuing the work that was started during Christie’s seven years as New Jersey’s federal prosecutor.

Jordan is referencing the Attorney General’s Annual Report which touts the accomplishments of Dowd’s team against public corruption, gang activity, fraud, and organized crime.

According to a press release from Dowd’s office, their first year accomplishments include:

• Obtained an eight-year prison sentence against former State Assemblyman and former Perth Amboy Mayor Vas, who solicited an illegal payment from a city vendor and illegally funneled money into his congressional campaign via straw donors; a seven-year sentence against former Irvington Mayor Steele, who took kickbacks from contractors while serving as business administrator for the Irvington schools; a three-year prison term against former Jersey City Municipal Court Administrator Virginia Pagan, who admitted to fixing hundreds of parking tickets; the forfeiture of office of former Assemblyman Anthony Chiappone, who admitted to filing false reports with the Election Law Enforcement Commission.
• Obtained a five-year prison sentence against former Assemblyman Neil Cohen, who admitted to viewing and printing child pornography on a computer in his legislative office.
• Secured convictions and prison sentences against individuals responsible for more than $16 million in fraud including investment fraud, embezzlement and identity theft.
• Took legal action to protect students by holding schools accountable for preventing bullying. Among other actions, Findings of Probable Cause were issued against two school districts – Old Bridge and Emerson — accused of failing to protect students who had been bullied and harassed for years.
• Resolved three major civil prosecutions of mortgage foreclosure “rescue” fraud, resulting in defendant payments of $17 million in penalties, judgments, restitution and other fees.
• · Fought traditional organized crime, obtaining a major indictment charging the Lucchese crime family hierarchy with running an illegal sports betting network that employed violence and extortion and, in a separate case, joining with the Waterfront Commission of New York Harbor to arrest a top official of the International Longshoremen’s Association, three ILA members, and a Newark police officer in an alleged scheme to extort money from dock workers.
• Obtained indictments charging nine defendants in connection with illegal gun trafficking. The indictments were obtained as the result of a cooperative investigation with the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. One indictment outlined a network that allegedly trafficked firearms from the Eastern Shore of Virginia to Trenton, where they were allegedly sold to gang members and other criminals.
• Spearheaded the Fugitive Safe Surrender program in Central New Jersey. The four-day initiative resulted in approximately 4,000 fugitives surrendering, voluntarily, to authorities on outstanding warrants for predominantly non-violent crimes.
• Achieved a 170 percent increase, compared with the prior year, in the amount of civil monetary penalties executed by the Office of the Insurance Fraud Prosecutor. OIFP also increased both the number of indictments filed and the number of defendants charged in 2010.
• Implemented a statewide Summer Warrant SWEEP initiative resulting in the arrests of more than 1,100 high-risk parole and probation absconders during the months of July and August, when violent and property crimes tend to peak.
• Protected investors by settling four Auction Rate Securities cases. The four companies repurchased $1.1 billion in Auction Rate Securities held by New Jersey investors and paid the N.J. Bureau of Securities $7.2 million in penalties for failing to disclose the risks of Auction Rate Securities to investors.
• Provided emergency assistance to thousands of residents and motorists during four federally-declared natural disasters. During the December 2010 blizzard, State Police handled 1,077 accidents and provided emergency assistance to an additional 2,889 motorists.

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Burnham Quits. Burry Blasts Him

By Art Gallagher

Peter Burnham resigned the presidency of Brookdale Community College yesterday in a defiant letter to the college board of trustees that touted his accomplishments.  His said his resignation should not be construed as an admission of wrong doing, according to a report in the Asbury Park Press. Burnham said he was confident that his good reputation would be preserved.

Freeholder Lillian Burry blasted Burnham with the strongest language that any official has yet to use to condemn the disgraced college president’s excessive compensation and spending irregularities:

“He disgraced himself in the eyes of his students, in the eyes of his peers, in the eyes of everyone who believed in his vision for Brookdale and every Monmouth County taxpayer,” Burry said. “He has to be held accountable for his actions.”

Burry also backed off her previous support of the college board.

“They did allow this to happen,” she said. “They created the environment that allowed Peter Burnham to become untouchable. Everyone believed in what he was doing and there was no oversight.”

Freeholder Deputy Director John Curley called upon the Board of Trustees to resign, saying that they are policing themselves which is unacceptable.  Freeholder Director Rob Clifton said that he expected that board members would voluntarily resign.

Across the aisle, Democratic Freeholder Amy Mallet was relatively quiet with the APP, deferring to her potential running mate, former Middletown Committeeman Sean Byrnes who ran for Freeholder against Curley in 2009.

The apparent lack of fiscal oversight at Brookdale is probably not unique to the college, Byrnes said Tuesday.

“Hopefully, the county will take this example and, perhaps, consider doing audits and investigations into some of the (other) boards they have ? library, parks,” he said.

Burry met with approximately 45 members of the Bayshore Tea Party Group last evening where she was very well received.  Charles Measley, a GOP county committee member from Rumson and active BTPG member who attends Brookdale was particularly pleased with Burry.  “I went into the meeting thinking Burry was a RINO, but came away impressed by how conservative she really is,” Measley said,  “regarding Brookdale, she told us of Burnham’s departure and assured us that there would be additional house cleaning.”

Barbara Gonzalez, BTPG founder, said that Burry was extremely impressive and that some of the group’s members thought she should run for higher office.

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Who’s hotter? Christie or Palin?

InTheLobby reminds of that the war of words between Governor Chris Christie and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is heating up as neither of them runs from president.

Meanwhile, Quinnipiac released a poll this morning that says voters rate Christie as much hotter than Palin.

Hmmm.

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