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Monmouth Poll: Christie looks like a lock for reelection

A Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll released this morning echoed the recent Quinnipiac and Rutgers-Eagleton Polls.  Over 70% of New Jersey voters approve of Governor Chris Christie’s performance and over 60% favor his reelection.  Christie is trouncing presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee Senator Barbara Buono by more than 40 points.

78% of voters haven’t heard enough of Buono to form an opinion about her.  Polling Director Patrick Murray said the race is likely to narrow to a 20% gap in favor of Christie and the Democratic challenger becomes better known.

“There is a long history that shows horse race polling has little predictive value this far out from an election. This is especially true when there is a popular incumbent and a largely unknown challenger. The important number here is that 6-in-10 voters support Gov. Christie’s re-election,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “This suggests that the race should close in on a 20 point margin as the campaign progresses and Buono becomes better known. The question remains whether the challenger can peel off Christie supporters to shrink that gap even more.”

Murray says that jobs, property taxes, schools, storm recovery and gun control are very important issues to the New Jersey electorate.   Minimum wage is an important issue with most voters supporting an increase.  However, Christie’s conditional veto of a minimum wage increase has not hurt his support with most voters.

According to Murray’s analysis, Buono has the potential to motivate 7% of the electorate to switch from voting for Christie to voting for her. If she gets all of them, Christie still wins with over 50% of the vote.

Monmouth polling staff attempted to identify voters who could potentially be motivated to switch support from the incumbent because of this issue. This group includes voters who: feel Gov. Christie deserves re-election, are dissatisfied with his veto, say they will vote to support a minimum wage ballot measure, and report that the issue is very important to their vote for governor. Analysis shows that this group comprises about 7% of the total electorate. Hypothetically, if Sen. Buono were able to convince all of these voters to abandon their support for Christie, his re-election support would remain above the 50% mark.

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Posted: February 12th, 2013 | Author: | Filed under: 2013 Election, 2013 Gubernatorial Politics, Barbara Buono, Chris Christie, Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray | Tags: , , , , | 7 Comments »

7 Comments on “Monmouth Poll: Christie looks like a lock for reelection”

  1. It's a long way said at 10:28 pm on February 12th, 2013:

    To November, a million things can happen in all these upcoming months. Focus should be on great challengers to the most lib and troubling legislators, if we are to ever take a majority.

  2. J. Voorhees said at 11:43 pm on February 12th, 2013:

    Christie won’t win if Joe Rudy Rullo enters the primary. EVERY IN OCEAN COUNTY KNOWS JOE! If he ran in the GOP primary he would beat Christie and he would win the general election especially in Ocean County. I used my election prediction software and ran the names “Christie” and “Buono” through and it said the race would be dangerously close. But I ran “Buono” and “Rullo” and it said:

    Buono: 5.7%
    Rullo: 93.4%

    Rullo needs to enter this race. Then he can be elected to senate in 2014 and president in 2016 and run for reelection in 2020 and we can voter for his veep in 2024!

    JOE RUDO RULLY 2013!

  3. monmouthgirl said at 9:58 am on February 13th, 2013:

    Rullo!?

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Uh oh – I laughed so hard I wet my pants

  4. Ocean guy said at 10:56 am on February 13th, 2013:

    Voorhees,

    Didn’t Rullo beat Kyrillos in the primary and then Menedez in the general?

    Wasn’t that him giving the response to the State of the Union last night?

    How about this – tell him to run for town council and see if he can win that and then we can talk about being President.

  5. J. Voorhees said at 1:56 pm on February 13th, 2013:

    Don’t you think if Joseph Rudy Rullo, who is known by everyone in Ocean County, wanted to be elected to town council he could!? HE COULD BE ELECTED TO EVERY SEAT AT THE SAME TIME he is so popular! Why not stop following the sheeple and jump on the Good ship Rullo, sailing towards a brighter tomorrow and a fiscally responsible future?Christie won’t win if Joe Rudy Rullo enters the primary. EVERY IN OCEAN COUNTY KNOWS JOE! If he ran in the GOP primary he would beat Christie and he would win the general election especially in Ocean County.Rullo needs to enter this race. Then he can be elected to senate in 2014 and president in 2016 and run for reelection in 2020 and we can voter for his veep in 2024!

  6. monmouth girl said at 3:51 pm on February 13th, 2013:

    Didnt he run in the primary against Joe Kyrillos? Rullo beat Kyrillos right? 100% to 0% because after all he “is known by everyone in Ocean County” and “he is so popular.”

    I think the Good Ship Rullo sank in the Barnegat Bay.

    But please please keep writing about he is going to be President! Please!

    This keeps up I will need adult diapers – you are too funny.

    P.S. – Does Mrs. Rullo know you are in love with her husband?

  7. J. Voorhees said at 4:49 pm on February 13th, 2013:

    Is there a Mrs. Rullo? He has dedicated so much time to winning I doubt he has time for anything else.