MMM Predictions for Election 2012

By popular demand (from Matt Rooney and a Democratic operative who doesn’t want people to know he/she talks to me) your favorite blogger is shifting his focus away from the Sandy Aftermath and back to politics on this election eve.

Rooney said, “Let’s hear your projection, Gallagher.”  My response: “The power will be off at my house for the rest of the week.”

Here are my predictions:

Public Questions:

Both questions will be approved by the voters.  New Jersey voters will approve borrowing $750 million for higher education infrastructure, and the State Constitution will be amended such that Judges will end up making larger contributions to their pension fund.


School Boards:

Who is running? For the first time, the majority of New Jersey will hold school board elections on the same ballot as the November general election.  First time out is a failure.  The school board elections have gotten less attention than when they were held in April.  Turnout will be higher, but most will not know who they are voting for.

In Monmouth County:

Republicans County Clerk M.Claire French and Freeholders John Curley and Serena DiMaso will win by historic margins against their Democratic opponents that even most of my political junkie readers still can’t name.  60% plus for the French, Curley, DiMaso ticket over Steinhorn, Shea and Lavan.  The GOP retains control 5-0 control of the Freeholder Board and all three constitutional offices.

In the two municipal races I’m following:

Middletown: Republican Deputy Mayor Steve Massell will defeat Linda Baum for a three year term on the Middletown Township Committee by a margin of 62%-38%.  The GOP will retain 5-0 control of the committee.

Highlands: Democratic incumbent Councilman Kevin Redmond and his running mate, school board member Tara Ryan, will defeat Republican newcomers Bill Byrne and Micheal Galvin, 55%-45%.  Democrats widen their control of the Borough Council from 3-2 to 4-1.


4th District: The Dean of the New Jersey Delegation, Chris Smith, will handily win his newly configured district 68%-32% over retired businessman Brian ummm, begins with an F and ends with and h, of Spring Lake.

6th District: Frank Pallone easily defeats Anna Little with 59.99999% of the vote.  The only suspense of the race will be whether Little wins in her hometown of Highlands and the Monmouth County portion of the district.  I predict she loses Highlands and very narrowly wins rest of the Monmouth Bayshore with the help of Romney and Kyrillos coattails.  Pallone wins the Middlesex portion of the district easily.

U.S. Senate:

Bob Menendez will easily defeat Joe Kyrillos, 56%-44%.

Maybe if Max Weinberg had come out for Kyrillos sooner.  You mean you didn’t know that Max was a Kyrillos supporter?  Neither does the NJ media and neither did I before getting a late night google alert. If Rooney and the anonymous Democrat hadn’t talked me into writing these predictions, you probably wouldn’t know about Weinberg’s support of Kyrillos either.  Not that it would have mattered.

The Kyrillos campaign has been a major disappointment and a litany of “if onlys.”

Hurricane Sandy gave New Jersey’s mainstream media an excuse not to cover the “October surprise” sex scandal involving incumbent Senator Bob Menendez and prostitutes in the Dominican Republic.  The story got more legs today as The Daily Caller ran a follow up piece quoting an anonymous government official of the DR saying that Menendez is a regular customer of high-end Dominican hookers.

Not that it would have mattered.  If the race had been close at the end of October and if Sandy hadn’t knocked politics off the front pages one week before the election, the scandal might have made a difference.   Perhaps not.  New Jersey voters are very tolerant of sexual deviancy and skeptical of October surprises.  A late breaking scandal might have given Menendez a sympathetic bounce.

Depending on which party controls the Senate next year the story may dog Menendez.  Not for the sex, but for the ethics of accepting free private jet rides from campaign donor and fellow sex party participant, Dr. Solomon Melgen of Florida.  If the Democrats retain control of the Senate, as I think they will, this story will fade away.  That could change if a U.S. based scandal involving prostitutes and Menendez breaks.

National Senate and House:

Regardless of who is elected president, the Democrats will retain control of the Senate and the Republicans will retain control of the House.

If Mitt Romney is elected president, fellow Morman, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, will find a way to work together to break the gridlock in Washington.

President of the United States:

The early returns from Dixville Notch, New Hampshire are in and the election is tied.

This race is close to call, but here are two scenarios that wouldn’t shock me:

1) Romney wins. An unprecedented number of public polls will be proven to have over sampled Democrats in the battleground states.  Mitt Romney will narrowly win the popular vote, 51%-49% and will win a comfortable electoral collage victory, 277-261.   Romney becomes the first Republican president elected without winning Ohio.

Art's Romney victory map. Click for larger view.

2) Obama wins. The first African-American president becomes the first incumbent to win an electoral collage victory while losing the popular vote.

Art's Obama victory map, Click for larger view

The difference between the two maps: Wisconsin.  If VP candidate Paul Ryan delivers his home state, Mitt Romney will be elected.  If not, Obama wins.



Posted: November 6th, 2012 | Author: | Filed under: 2012 Congressional Races, 2012 Predictions, 2012 Presidential Politics, 2012 U.S. Senate Race, Elections, Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

4 Comments on “MMM Predictions for Election 2012”

  1. Gene B said at 11:39 am on November 6th, 2012:

    My test of Intrade occurs today. For years, I’ve heard that professional gamblers have some kind of magical insight. Tonight I will have my evidence -either way.

    As of 10:31 AM – they called the election for Obama with 82% odds. They also called the Senate for Democrats, with an increase in Democrats. They said that Tom Smith and Todd Aiken would lose for Senate. And that PA and OH would go Dem.

    I’m going beyond this election and going back to my own predictions. Christie will win re-election. But he will never again get a chance to get the Republican nomination for President. AND. Christie will be the last Republican to become Governor of NJ. After Christie, any future non-Dem governors will not be Republican.


  2. Charles M said at 1:52 pm on November 6th, 2012:

    I think Little will get 36%

  3. Bob English said at 6:44 pm on November 6th, 2012:

    Predictions: Obama..291 electorial votes. 50-50 split on popular vote…possibility Romney takes that. Froelich comes a little bit closer that what Art mentions…people do not like candidates who are afraid to debate their opponent.

  4. Bob English said at 10:42 am on November 7th, 2012:

    I might need a do-over on my Smith-Froelich prediction