Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray says on PolitickerNJ that Ernesto Cullari will defeat Anna Little in the CD-6 GOP primary based on Senator Joe Kyrillos coattails and “the bigger issue” that some of Little’s key supporters have fallen out with her since the 2010 race.
I wonder who Patrick is referring to.
2010 nominee Anna Little hopes lightning strikes twice and she knocks off the Monmouth County organization’s preferred candidate – this time, Ernesto Cullari. But it just ain’t gonna happen. It’s not because the party has gotten any better at GOTV. Fewer than 14,000 Republicans voted in the last primary – and the only reason more will vote this year is that native son Joe Kyrillos is running for Senate. The bigger issue is that some of Little’s key supporters have fallen out with her since the last race. Winner: Cullari
Murray predicts that 15% of partisan voters will come out on Tuesday statewide. If the turnout is higher in Monmouth because of Kyrillos’ favorite son status, that should favor Cullari. Little benefits from Kyrillos’s coattails in Middlesex where she appears under the senator on the ballot.
Despite Murray’s swipe at the Monmouth GOP get out the vote effort, the real key to this race is will be the turnout in Middlesex. If Sam Thompson’s team gets 5000 or more voters to the polls, Little should win. In the 2010 race less than 3800 Middlesex Republicans voted. However the Middlesex portion of the district is much larger now since redistricting. If less than 5000 voters come out in Middlesex and 6000 come out in Monmouth, Cullari wins. If 10,000 come out in Monmouth because of Kyrillos, Cullari wins handily.
MMM’s prediction: In a repeat of 2010, the race will go to a recount.
Unlike 2010 the race, the recount won’t be resolved before the Monmouth GOP convention. Little will get up at the convention and endorse John Bennett for Chair as a payback for headlining her $10 per head spaghetti dinner fundraiser in Keansburg. Cullari will get up and endorse Christine Hanlon because she’s Christine Hanlon.
Little will be forced to concede on June 15 in order to pay her fines from the FEC. She won’t have enough money to pay her recount team and the fines. John Bennett, fresh off his defeat in the Chair’s race, will be in Florida and unable to host a spaghetti dinner to pay Little’s fines and pay the recount team.