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Patrick Murray predicts that Cullari will defeat Little

Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray says on PolitickerNJ that Ernesto Cullari will defeat Anna Little in the CD-6 GOP primary based on Senator Joe Kyrillos coattails and “the bigger issue” that some of Little’s key supporters have fallen out with her since the 2010 race.

I wonder who Patrick is referring to.

CD6 GOP
2010 nominee Anna Little hopes lightning strikes twice and she knocks off the Monmouth County organization’s preferred candidate – this time, Ernesto Cullari.  But it just ain’t gonna happen.  It’s not because the party has gotten any better at GOTV.  Fewer than 14,000 Republicans voted in the last primary – and the only reason more will vote this year is that native son Joe Kyrillos is running for Senate.  The bigger issue is that some of Little’s key supporters have fallen out with her since the last race.  Winner:  Cullari

Murray predicts that 15% of partisan voters will come out on Tuesday statewide.   If the turnout is higher in Monmouth because of Kyrillos’ favorite son status, that should favor Cullari.  Little benefits from Kyrillos’s coattails in Middlesex where she appears under the senator on the ballot. 

Despite Murray’s swipe at the Monmouth GOP get out the vote effort, the real key to this race is will be the turnout in Middlesex.   If Sam Thompson’s team gets 5000 or more voters to the polls, Little should win.   In the 2010 race less than 3800 Middlesex Republicans voted.  However the Middlesex portion of the district is much larger now since redistricting.  If less than 5000 voters come out in Middlesex and 6000 come out in Monmouth, Cullari wins.   If 10,000 come out in Monmouth because of Kyrillos, Cullari wins handily.

MMM’s prediction:  In a repeat of 2010, the race will go to a recount. 

Unlike 2010 the race, the recount won’t be resolved before the Monmouth GOP convention.  Little will get up at the convention and endorse John Bennett for Chair as a payback for headlining her $10 per head spaghetti dinner fundraiser in Keansburg.  Cullari will get up and endorse Christine Hanlon because she’s Christine Hanlon.

Little will be forced to concede on June 15 in order to pay her fines from the FEC.  She won’t have enough money to pay her recount team and the fines.  John Bennett, fresh off his defeat in the Chair’s race, will be in Florida and unable to host a spaghetti dinner to pay Little’s fines and pay the recount team.

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Posted: June 4th, 2012 | Author: | Filed under: 2012 Congressional Races, Anna Little, Ernesto Cullari | Tags: , , , , , , , | 8 Comments »

8 Comments on “Patrick Murray predicts that Cullari will defeat Little”

  1. Freespeaker1976 said at 9:07 am on June 5th, 2012:

    On N.J. Politicker…

    “Bargonzo57

    If Ernesto wins, I will not vote. His campaign is a lying bunch of idiots.”

    It sounds like Babs is acting out again, taking her toys and running, failing to become a team player. Like her refusal to help Romney win, unless she get’s what she wants she acts out like a spoiled child.

  2. Really? said at 9:48 am on June 5th, 2012:

    What it really sounds like is the piece of TRASH that Cullari ignorantly hired is playing her classless, moronic little games again. But what can you expect? Cant change TRASH…..

  3. @Really? said at 9:55 am on June 5th, 2012:

    Yup, trash is trash no matter how you dress it up. =)

  4. @ Really II said at 10:20 am on June 5th, 2012:

    @ Really?

    If you are going to throw around innuendos at someone, why don’t you have the cojones to name that person. But, this again is just like the ranting, raving cult members of the BSTP.

    Anna Little and her cult like followers must be having a temper tantrum today because the truth about Anna is getting out.

    You see, if Diane Gooch had done her job, going after Anna in 2010 during the primary instead of Pallone, Anna would have been vetted then and all of this stuff would have come out then. Now, two years later Anna is crying foul because we are finally getting the truth.

  5. TR said at 10:47 am on June 5th, 2012:

    Cosider this. Thompson gave Little the line to help out Kyrillos but does he have any incentive to get out the vote? Little’s team that ran the ground game two years ago is now working for Cuilari. My prediction Cuilari wins both counties by a margin just large enough to avoid a recount.

  6. Really? said at 11:09 am on June 5th, 2012:

    O I am sorry. Kelly Hart=TRASH. Havent you been reading this crap for months around here? The “cojones” are huge. =)

  7. Barry said at 7:50 am on June 6th, 2012:

    Well I guess Mr. Murray’s analytical credibility took a big hit

  8. Harry said at 9:48 am on June 6th, 2012:

    Not to mention Art’s analytic ability…”race to go to recount”