Poll Dancing
Last month there was something of a controversy over the veracity of the Monmouth University vs the Quinnipiac University polls rating Governor Christie’s performance. Within one week there was an 11 point swing in Christie’s approval ratings. A Quinnipiac poll indicated a sky high 59%-36% approval rating for the Guv followed a week later by a down to earth 50%-38% rating produced by a Monmouth poll. Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray explained the difference by criticising the order in which Quinnipiac asked their questions while acknowledging that his poll is weighted to favor Democrats.
This morning’s Fairleigh Dickinson’s Public Mind Poll asked the Christie approval question three ways and got three different answers in the same survey.
When asked “How would you rate the job that Chris Christie is doing as governor?” 49% said excellent or good. 49% said only fair or poor and 2% were unsure.
When asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of Christie, 51% said very favorable or somewhat favorable, 11% said unsure or mixed and 37% said very or somewhat unfavorable.
When given only two choices, approve or disapprove, 56% approve of Christie and 33% disapprove. Only 11% were confused, mixed or unsure after taking that survey.
45% of the respondents identified themselves and Democratic or leaning that way, 23% were Independent, unsure or wouldn’t say, and 32% said they were Republican or lean that way.
34% of New Jersey voters are registered Democrats, 22% Republican and 45% are not affiliated with a major party.
More from my site
Do New Jersey Voters Care About Menendez Scandal?
Did Christie’s Popularity Plunge 11 Points in One Week?
Monmouth Poll: Christie Approval Numbers 51%-35%
Poll biases: It’s not just the sampling weights
Monmouth Poll: Christie looks like a lock for reelection- Monmouth Poll: Christie’s Disapprove Numbers Up 9 points
Christie’s Polling Numbers Rise Significantly
Christie Reverses the Gender Gap
Patrick Murray: Mark Magyar mischaracterized his analysis
FDU Poll: Christie Up By 19%, 40% Say They Are Republican
@ Tolls Are Taxes,
Say it again if you like, but not from a proxy. Comments from proxies are no longer welcome at this site
All that just goes to show what many of us have known all along. Polls are like accountants’ financial statements. They are at best only a hazy and extremely vague estimation of reality, despite all the fraudulent appearance of precision with decimal points and margins of error.
Couple of thoughts:
1) The word “fair” is usually lumped in with “poor” and perceived as a negative. I think people using the “fair” if their feelings are 50/50 regarding the person the question is being asked about. I think its conceivable that when forced to chose between approve or diapprove, those responding “fair” would also split 50/50 on that question which is why the Gov does well on the apporve/disapprove question.
2) Another intersting question to ask would be along the lines of “Politics asside, how do you regard Mr. X?
Woops….posted above before fixing typos.
continued: What I am getting at is a question could be asked to determine how voters personally feel about a candidate or officeholder irregardless of how they feel about them politically.
How does Kyrillos beat Menendez with Romney’s numbers like this. I remember a post from Art that said Romney would have to be in the single digits for Kyrillos to even have a chance.
http://www.northjersey.com/news/state/Poll_Christie_popular_in_NJ_but_Romney_still_trails_Obama.html
Yeah, Yeah, long way to go; but Romney’s numbers are sliding. This doesn’t help either
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/226027-poll-obama-leads-romney-by-seven-in-ohio
Maybe Karl Rove is right…