CD-6 Primary: It will all come down to turnout

On the day Anna Little won the endorsement of the Middlesex County GOP, she became the favorite to win the 6th congressional district nomination.  Despite that all of the candidates, Democrat and Republican are from Monmouth County, the new 6th is a Middlesex County district. 

With no presidential contest on the top of the ballot and the U.S. Senate race uncompetitive, turnout is likely to be very low.  13,000 voters decided the 2010 primary race between Little and Monmouth County GOP Vice Chair Diane Gooch by less than 90 votes.  This time out, I’ll be surprised if there are more than 6000 votes.

Based on name recognition, Little should be considered the favorite.  She scored an upset in the last primary. She was the general election candidate in 2010 and she was a countywide candidate for Freeholder in 2006.

Coming into the race, Ernesto Cullari, the Monmouth County GOP endorsed candidate was a complete unknown, except for readers of the triCityNews where he was the token conservative columnist.   The nomination in both Middlesex and Monmouth Counties was his for the taking because no one else wanted it.  Little was running for the U.S. Senate nomination against Joe Kyrillos.

Little has been once again running against the Republican establishment who turned her away for the congressional nomination twice and never wanted her as freeholder candidate.  She won the office of Freeholder by one vote at a raucous January 2006 convention and was denied the nomination for reelection in 2007.

But it was during a meeting with Kyrillos in early March, before the Monmouth County screening/candidate selection and after Cullari announced his candidacy, that Little give up her Senate bid and decided to make another run for Congress.   Kyrillos did not want a primary challenge from the pesky Little.  Little did not want her career to end with a primary loss to Kyrillos.   The independent minded elected officials and municipal chairs of the Monmouth GOP were not going along with the deal.  They knew Little was no more of a threat to Kyrillos than Badar Qarmout.

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Sam Thompson: Judges suing to prevent having to make larger pension and healthcare contributions are making a “totally fallacious” argument

By Senator Samuel D. Thompson

In the case of DePascale vs. State of New Jersey just heard by the New Jersey State Supreme Court, it has been argued that a new law requiring Justices and Superior Court Judges to make larger contributions towards the cost of their healthcare insurance and pensions reduces their salary which is prohibited by the Constitution.

 A section of the State Constitution reads:  “The salary of Supreme Court Justices and Superior Court Judges shall not be diminished during their term of office.”

Increasing the amount these esteemed judicial officials must pay to purchase healthcare insurance and pensions does diminish their purchasing power but does not diminish their salary.

If DePascles’ argument is sustained, then it could similarly be argued in the future that anything which diminishes these officials’ purchasing power (although not affecting their salary) would be in violation of the Constitution and hence, illegal.  Note this section does not bar any diminishment of salary only action by the Sate.

Thus, following DePascales’ logic, should federal, state or local governmental entities increase income or property tax rates or Social Security or Medicare deductions, it would be equally valid to argue these actions would diminish the salary of these officials since such actions would diminish their purchasing power.

In fact, if the Court finds for the plaintiff in the cited case, one might even argue that when the price of gasoline, groceries, utilities or housing increases, it “diminishes their salary” in the same way as increasing the price of purchasing their health insurance and pension did.  Consequently, one would conclude they should never have to pay a higher price for anything they purchase during their term of office.

Clearly, this argument is totally fallacious, was never the intent of the drafters of the constitution or the people that voted for its adoption and should be summarily dismissed.

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Just a Little Duplicity

Anna Little continues to claim support that she doesn’t have for her fledgling efforts to get on the ballot as candidate for federal office this fall.

In an email blast this morning, Little claimed she would be marching in the Highlands St. Patrick’s parade on Saturday with the Bayshore Tea Party Group.    BTPG is not marching in the parade and has not endorsed Little’s quest for the GOP nomination for Congress from the 6th District.  Little was forced to issue a retraction email and post on her facebook page.

Earlier this week, Little claimed she had the support of GOP leaders for congressional candidacy, despite the fact that she lost the Monmouth GOP endorsement to Ernesto Cullari on Friday March 16th.

Last December, Little listed endorsements she received during her 2010 congressional run on her U.S. Senate campaign website, as if they were endorsements for her ill fated Senate bid against Joe Kyrillos.

If the Middlesex County GOP endorses Little at the convention on Saturday morning, the Republican nomination for Congress in the 6th district against Frank Pallone will be split in the June primary, with Cullari the endorsed GOP candidate on Monmouth County ballots and Little the endorsed candidate on Middlesex County ballots. 

Little has the support of Middlesex County Chairman, Senator Sam Thompson, and is expected to prevail on Saturday.

Thompson and the Middlesex GOP should consider themselves forewarned.  Those who know Little best have decided not to endorse her candidacy.   The reasons listed above are just the tip of the iceberg.

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Little dominates Middlesex GOP screening

With the strong support of the County Chairman, Senator Sam Thompson, Anna Little scored a 27-3 victory over newcomer Ernesto Cullari  last night with the Middlesex County GOP screening committee .

According to the Middlesex GOP rules, Little will be the recommended candidate at the March 24th convention, by virture of a screening victory of over 2/3.

Charles Measley, Cullari’s campaign coordinator, said that Thompson implored the screening committee members to vote for Little.  Thompson is concerned that Little will go back to challenging State Senator Joe Kyrillos in the U.S. Senate race if she does not get the party endorsement for Congress, according to Measley’s account of a conversation he had with the chairman.

The GOP endorsement process moves to Monmouth County tomorrow when the nominating committee will award the party line on the ballot for the June primary.  The committee is comprised of all municipal chairs, current and former elected officials on the county and state levels, and former county chairs.

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MMM Year In Review – April

As is customary, April started with a joke.   This year the month of April ended with two jokes; the school board elections  and the President of the United States of America released his long form birth certificate.

After three years of study, Hopewell Township passed an ordinance regulating chicken sex.

A tongue in cheek post about who the Democrats could get to challenge Senator Joe Kyrillos when their endorsed candidate failed to submit his nominating petitions, generated more calls from Trenton than any other post of the year.

The worst joke of the month has consequences that will last at least a decade.  “Continuity of representation,” a political value in the mind of Rutgers professor Alan Rosenthal, trumped competitiveness and the state constitution in determining the lines of the new gerrymandered legislative map.

The stakes were so high that Governor Christie got personally involved in the negotiations regarding the map.  But Rosenthal’s was the only vote that counted.  The professor was not persuaded by the governor.

The map was so gerrymandered for the Democrats that Christie and the Republicans did not even try to win control of the legislature.  The governor, who came into office vowing to “turn Trenton upside down” transformed into the “compromiser in chief” in order to salvage what he could of his reform agenda.

While Rosenthal preserved the status quo for the Trenton trough swilling class, he unwittingly contributed to the creatation of a national Republican rock star, as Christie, freed up from having to work to win control of the legislature transferred his political attentions to the national stage.

The new map was no joke for many in Monmouth County. 

Senator Sean Kean of Wall was put into the same district as his friend, Senator Robert Singer of Lakewood.  After a few days of saber rattling about a primary for the seat, cooler heads prevailed as Kean agreed to go back to the Assembly to represent the safely Republican 30th district. 

Ocean County Republican Chairman George Gilmore told MMM that the Democrats put Singer and Kean in the same district in the hopes that the GOP would waste resources on a contentious primary in a safe district.  The real reason was that the Democrats were horrified at the prospect of Dan Jacobson returning to the legislature in the upper house.

Jacobson was preparing a fanatasy Republican primary challenge to Kean for Senate should Wall and Asbury Park remain in the same district.   The Democrats, who have never understood Monmouth County, didn’t realize the futility of such an endeavor.  But they knew Jacobson and they weren’t taking any chances.  So they put Senator Jennifer Beck in the same district as Jacobson, knowing that he would never challenge her in a primary.  Jacobson, through his newspaper, created Jennifer Beck.  Just ask him.

The new 11th district would be represented by Beck in the Senate and Mary Pat Angelini and Caroline Casagrande in the Assembly.  A district represented by three women.  A historic first. 

Assemblyman Dave Rible, formerly of the 11th,  was now in the 30th with Singer and Kean.

The new 12th district provided brief drama due to the fact that the lines created a senate vacancy.  Sam Thompson of Middlesex County and Ronald Dancer of Ocean County were the incumbent Assemblymen in the predominently Western Monmouth district.   The Monmouth GOP wanted to keep three senators.  Thompson wanted to move up. Freeholder Director Rob Clifton had long eyed Thompson’s seat in the assembly, but the senate vacancy presented an unexpected opportunity.  Always level headed and not one to needlessly rock the boat, Clifton let the Monmouth, Ocean, Middlesex and Burlington chairmen figure it out.  Thompson got the senate nod and Clifton joined the ticket with Dancer running for assembly.

The 13th district became even safer for Senator Joe Kyrillos.  Assemblyman Declan O’Scanlon of Little Silver joined Kyrillos and Assemblywoman Amy Handlon in representing the district.   Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornick, a Democrat, had his ambitions put on hold by the map makers who put Marlboro into the 13th.

The Democrats did the best they could, but only put up nominal opposition in the Monmouth legislative districts and on the county level.

Former Howell Chair Norine Kelly passed away in April.

Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno threw Carl Lewis off the 8th legislative district ballot for Senate.

A team of six Red Bank Regional High School students won the national Cyber Patriot III competition in applied defense technology.

The Monmouth County Freeholders established term limits for boards and commissions.

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What is we held an election and nobody cared? Part 3, The 12th Legislative District

Part 1.  11th Legislative District

Part 2. Part 2a.   13th Legislative District

Prelude from Part 1:

In seven five weeks New Jersey voters will have the opportunity to elect an entirely new state legislature.

Patrick Murray’s Monmouth University/Neptune Nudniks poll conducted in August indicates that New Jersey voters disapprove of their legislature by a 48%-35% margin.  Democrats disapprove by 45%-38%.  Independents, the majority, disapprove by a whopping 50%-28%.  Surprisingly, Republicans approve of the legislature by a 45%-41% margin.  Public workers disapprove by 55%-26%.

Based solely on those poll results, one might expect that we’d be in the middle of a spirited campaign with Democrats and public workers rallying to throw the Republicans out of office.  Obviously that is not the case.  Democrats control the legislature that their base and Independents disapprove of strongly.

Due to Dr. Alan Rosenthal’s decision that New Jersey voters are better off being continuously represented by legislators they don’t know, there are only a handful of competitive legislative races.  The Democrats will continue to control the legislature for the next two years.  Probably the next ten years.

Part 3

Now that Governor Christie has put an end to the presidential speculation and passionately reitierated his commitment to fixing our broken state, one might think that an election with every seat in the legislature up for grabs coming up in five weeks would be an opportunity for Christie to foward his fixes by picking up support in the legislature.  Christie’s poll numbers are surging in New Jersey.  An FDU poll last week indicated that 54% of New Jersey voters approve of the job he is doing.  FDU also indicated that 47% of New Jersey voters disapprove of President Obama’s performance, down from dramatically from a May poll after Bin Laden was killed that indicated 56% of New Jerseyans approved of Obama.

Yet Christie apparently doesn’t see an opportunity.  During the Q&A of his press conference yesterday the Governor said that he doesn’t see the upcoming legislative election as a referendum on his performance “given the map.”  Once again the conventional wisdom is that the only vote that really mattered in this legislative election, and the next four, was the vote that Dr. Alan Rosenthal cast as the tie breaking member of the Legislative Reapportionment Commission adapting the Democratic gerrymandered map that assured “continuity of representation.”

Now that Christie is focused only on New Jersey maybe he will launched an unexpected campaign to defy conventional wisdom and the Rosenthal/Democratic map. During his fund raising trip last week the New Jersey GOP was one of the beneficiaries of his efforts.  Christie has moved the electorate in unexpected ways previously.  During the 2010 school board elections he called for New Jersey to defeat school budgets in towns where teachers would not agree to contribute to their healthcare.  Could that be done in a legislative general election against a gerrymandered map?  Its wishful thinking on my part.  I would love to see him try it but would be more surprised if he did than if he didn’t.

12th Legislative District

Like the 11th and 13th districts, the 12th has more registered Democratic voters than Republicans, according to Labels and Lists.   The district is compromised of the northern part of Burlington County (6,448 registered voters), Old Bridge in MiddlesexCounty (34,626 registered voters) Western Monmouth County (43,861 registered voters) and the Ocean County towns of Jackson and Plumsted (36,656 registered voters).

Despite a voter registration edge for the Democrats, 29,702 to 27,482 Republicans and 64,407 Independents, the district is considered among the safest of Republican districts.  On the September 14 Real Jersey Guys Radio Show political strategist Chris Kniesler called the district “deep red.”

The Republicans expected to cruise to victory on November 8th are Assemblyman Sam Thompson, Old Bridge in the old 13th district ,who is running for Senate, Assemblyman Rondal Dancer, Plumsted of the old 30th district, and Monmouth County Freeholder Director Rob Clifton, Matawan, running for Assembly.

I honestly didn’t know that names of the Democratic Assembly candidates before reading The Asbury ParkPress’s write up on the district.  They are Catherine Tinney Rome and William Spedding. The Asbury Park Press didn’t say where they are from.

The Democratic Senate candidate is Robert Brown of Old Bridge.  Politikernj describes Brown as a “veteran loser.” He ran against Thompson for Assembly in the old 13th in 2007 and in 2009.  In 07 his running mate was Middletown’s Patricia Walsh.  In 09 he ran with Middletown’s Jim Grenefage.

While Brown doesn’t stand a chance against Thompson, he is providing some comic entertainment to the campaign.  He has forsaken his liberal Democratic bonafides and is attempting to run to the right of Thompson.  He has a Republicans for Brown website and has attempted to use twitter to bait this website and Save Jersey into supporting his candidacy.

Brown wants the campaign to be about Thompson’s state pension.  He contends Thompson, 76 years old, is “double-dipping” because he is collecting his legislative salary and the pension he receives as a result of working for state health department for 22 years and the NJ Turnpike Authority for 3 years.   Brown says he will give up his $14K per year police disablity pension if elected to the Senate where he would earn a $49K salary.  He says Thompson should give up his $49K pension.   Thompson says he won’t.

Brown collects a disablity pension as the result of an 1981 incident where he was shot in his hand and shoulder. He killed the perp who shot him.  Brown recovered from his wounds and went back to work with the Old Bridge Police Department for five years when he requested a disability pension due to lingering physical and psychological disabilities.   He finally retired from the Old Bridge PD in 1988, seven years after the shooting, and litigated his pension for another 11 years before prevailing in the  NJ Superior Court Appellate Division.

In response to Brown’s numerous tweets trying to bait me into his nonsense, I tweeted back that he must not have recovered from his psychological disablities because he is crazy if he thinks I am going to help him get elected.  I have no doubt that if Brown were a Senator he would recover his Democratic roots and do whatever Steve Sweeney told him to do.

While Brown wants the election to be about Thompson’s pension and his own heroism which he has been trying to parlay into a political career for years, The Asbury Park Press decided the campaign is about the horse racing industry.

In reality, unless something very unexpected happens, the 12th district race is a campaign about nothing as the Republicans will win a low turnout election easily with no credible opposition.

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Lucas Not Running In The 12th

By Art Gallagher

Manalapan Mayor Andrew Lucas told MoreMonmouthMusings that he will not be a candidate for Senate or Assembly in the GOP primary in the new 12th legislative district.

Earlier this week Lucas announced that he would by-pass the Monmouth County screening committee to compete in the primary.

The Ocean and Middlesex GOPs nominated Sam Thompson for Senate and Ronald Dancer and Rob Clifton for Assembly earlier this week.  The Monmouth and Burlington County Committees are expected to do the same tomorrow.

Lucas said that he would do all that he could this fall to make sure Republicans are elected in the 12th district and throughout Monmouth County.

Clifton said, ” I have a great deal of respect for Andrew Lucas.  He is a great Mayor and will be a leader in Monmouth County and New Jersey for years to come.”

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Thompson Says He Has Fellow Chairmen’s Support For Senate Race

By Art Gallagher

Assemblyman Sam Thompson of Old Bridge told MoreMonmouthMusings that he has the support of his fellow 12th district county chairmen for his bid to run for State Senate.

Thompson, who is also the Middlesex County GOP Chairman said that Ocean Chair George Gilmore, Monmouth Chair Joe Oxley and Burlington Chair Bill Layton each indicated that they would recommend that their respective conventions or screening committees nominate him for Senator.  He is confident that his own convention will award him the nomination.

Thompson said he would ask the Middlesex County Convention to nominate Monmouth County Freeholder Director Rob Clifton for the Assembly seat that Thompson now holds.  Assemblyman Ronald Dancer, Plumsted is also expected to be nominated.

Clifton told MMM that he proudly supports Thompson for Senate, that he looks forward to campaigning with him and Dancer and serving with them in Trenton.

Manalapan Mayor Andrew Lucas, who has said he will challenge Clifton in the primary, was not immediately available for comment.

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30th District Primary Looking Less Likely

By Art Gallagher

“The Democrats created this district so that Republicans would spend resources fighting each other while they sit back and get ready for the general election and it looks as like that is going to happen.”  So said Ocean County GOP Chairman George Gilmore about the new 30th legislative district in an interview with MMM early yesterday afternoon.

Within hours what had seemed to be a certain primary between Senators Sean Kean and Robert Singer was apparently avoided.  “Sean is talking to Singer,” said Monmouth GOP Chairman Joe Oxley, “There will be no war between the Ocean and Monmouth Republican organizations. Ocean and Monmouth were key counties in delivering a victory to Governor Christie and we will be working together to deliver Republican gains in the legislature.”

Kean later told the Asbury Park Press that he was uncertain about challenging Singer in the primary.  Singer told the APP that should he retire, that Kean would face an Senate candidate from Lakewood.

With both Senators backing off their firm positions to run, it appears that cooler heads will prevail as a slate is chosen with an eye towards victory in November.

The new 12th district will not be such a heavy lift.  “With three counties, Middlesex, Monmouth and Ocean, each having roughly 1/3 of the population of the district it would seem that each county should have a representative in the legislature,” said Gilmore.  Oxley concurred.

Middlesex County Chairman Sam Thompson, Old Bridge, is an incumbent Assemblyman from the new 12th district.  He has been angling to get the senate nod, touting the fact that he would be the only GOP Senator from Middlesex County and that his senatorial courtesy would give the Christie administration a new bargaining chip in dealing with the Democrats.   GOP sources in the legislature and the administration are divided over the benefit of Thompson having sentatorial courtesy so long as there is a Republican governor.  “The Senate seems to be slipping away from Sam,” said one senior Republican close to the process.

Oxley does not consider Manalapan Mayor Andrew Lucas’ primary bid in the new 12th to be a serious undertaking.  “I don’t know who is giving Andrew his political advice,” said Oxley, “this is not fun and games, it is serious business.”  Oxley was referring to Lucas’ comment on MMM that a legislative primary against Freeholder Director Rob Clifton would be fun.

If Clifton is awarded “the line” in Middlesex, Monmouth and Ocean, a Lucas primary victory would appear to be unlikely even if he runs a competitive race in his Western Monmouth base.

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Lucas Will Run In the New 12th

By Art Gallagher

Manalapan Mayor Andrew Lucas will be a candidate for the state legislature in the GOP primary from the new 12th district.

Lucas, who will make a formal announcement tomorrow, said he would defer to Assembly incumbents Sam Thompson and Ronald Dancer should either seek the vacant Senate seat.  In such case Lucas will run for Assembly.  Should neither incumbent Assemblyman run for Senate, Lucas will seek that seat.

Lucas said that he will not compete with Freeholder Director Rob Clifton for the Monmouth GOP line with the screening committee, but would  take the race to a primary.

“I think this will be fun and reinvigorate the western portion of the Monmouth GOP,” said the Mayor.

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