Poll Dancing

Last month there was something of a controversy over the veracity of the Monmouth University vs the Quinnipiac University polls rating Governor Christie’s performance.  Within one week there was an 11 point swing in Christie’s approval ratings.  A Quinnipiac poll indicated a sky high 59%-36% approval rating for the Guv followed a week later by a down to earth 50%-38% rating produced by a Monmouth poll.  Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray explained the difference by criticising the order in which Quinnipiac asked their questions while acknowledging that his poll is weighted to favor Democrats.

This morning’s Fairleigh Dickinson’s Public Mind Poll  asked the Christie approval question three ways and got three different answers in the same survey.

When asked “How would you rate the job that Chris Christie is doing as governor?” 49% said excellent or good. 49% said only fair or poor and 2% were unsure.

When asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of Christie, 51% said very favorable or somewhat favorable, 11% said unsure or mixed and 37% said very or somewhat unfavorable.

When given only two choices, approve or disapprove, 56% approve of Christie and 33% disapprove.  Only 11% were confused, mixed or unsure after taking that survey.

45% of the respondents identified themselves and Democratic or leaning that way, 23% were Independent, unsure or wouldn’t say, and 32% said they were Republican or lean that way.

34% of New Jersey voters are registered Democrats, 22% Republican and 45% are not affiliated with a major party.

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Monmouth Poll: Christie Approval Numbers 51%-35%

By Art Gallagher

Governor Chris Christie’s approval numbers have slipped 5% since February in a Monmouth University/NJ Press Media poll released this morning.

51% of New Jersey residents approve of the governor’s performance compared to 35% who don’t, according to the poll.  Among registered voters, 50% approve of Christie and 38% do not.

In the February Monmouth Poll Christie earned a 52%-38% rating from all NJ residents and 55% to 37% from registered voters.

Today’s Monmouth Poll results are markedly different than the Quinnipiac Poll released last week which indicates that Christie is enjoying his highest approval numbers ever at 59%-36%.

One thing that is consistent between the two polls:  New Jersey residents prefer Senate President Sweeney’s property tax relief plan over Governor Christie’s 10% income tax cut.

I don’t have time this morning to study the two polls to account for the difference and it’s too early to call the pollsters for comment.  Anyone who can account for the difference in the polls before I get to it is welcome to do so in the comments.

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Kyrillos closing the gap with Mendendez

The Quinnipiac poll released this morning has some encouraging news for State Senator Joe Kyrillos and his supporters as they campaign to unseat U.S. Senator Bob Menendez in November.

Menendez’s lead over Monmouth County’s favorite son is down to single digits, 44%-35%, with 18% undecided or not saying.   A February poll by Quinnipiac had the race at 49%-34% .

Menendez’s favorability and familiarity ratings remain anemic for an incumbent.  35% of voters have a favorable opinion of Menendez, 27% have an unfavorable view and 37% haven’t heard enough about him.  In February, 38% approved of Menendez, 24% didn’t and 36% didn’t know enough.  If this trend holds, Menendez is in trouble.

Kyrillos remains largely unknown, but the trends are in his favor.  In today’s poll 14% view Kyrillos favorably, 6% don’t and 79% don’t know enough about him.  In February 82% didn’t know enough about Kyrillos to form an opinion, 11% approved of him and 6% didn’t. 

Perhaps more encouraging for Kyrillos than the head to head numbers against Menendez are the poll results of the presidential campaign.

Quinnipiac says that Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 9 points in New Jersey, 49%-40%.   The presidential race in NJ tightens to 49%-42% if Governor Chris Christie is the VP nominee.

Obama won the popular vote in New Jersey by 15% in 2008.  NJ’s GOP leadership expects that he will take our electoral votes again.  However, they believe that if the race is within single digits, that Kyrillos can unseat Menendez.

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Christie’s Approval Ratings Highest Ever

59% of New Jersey voters approve of the job that Governor Chris Christie is doing, according to a Quinnipiac Poll released this morning. 36% disapprove.

Republicans approve of the governor’s performance by 92%-6%.  Independents approve by 64%-32%.  Democrats disapprove by 64%-30%.

Women give Christie positive marks at a rate of 52%-42%.  Yet the gender gap remains.  Men approve of Christie’s performance by a measure of 67%-30%.

New Jersey’s traditionally Democratic urban areas are evenly split in their assessment of the governor’s job performance.  Christie scored 48%-48% in the cities.  “Philly Land” approves by 55%-38%, suburan areas approve by 60%-36%, ex-urban by 67%-29% and the shore by 65%-31%.

Tax decreases are popular in New Jersey.  

Voters approve of the way Christie is handling the state budget by 58%-35% and approve of his proposed 10% across the board income tax cut by 54%- 32%.   Voter also like Senate President Sweeney’s 10% property tax cut for residents earning less than $250,000 per year by 57%-24%.   If we have to choose, we prefer Sweeney’s plan by 49%-38%.

Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,607 registered voters between April 3-9.  The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.4 %.

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Quinnipiac poll: New Jersey Supports Gay Marriage, Wants A Referendum

“The numbers are all over the lot.”

A Quinnipiac University Poll released this morning indicates that New Jersey voters support same sex marriage by a 57%-37% margin.  By 67%-28% respondents said they support Governor Christie’s proposal the issue be decided via referendum.

Voters are split, 48%-47%, over whether Christie did the right thing vetoing same sex marriage bill approved by the legislature earlier this year.

“The numbers are all over the lot,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, “Voter support for same-sex marriage goes up every time we ask, but about half of them think Christie was right to veto it.  By better than 2-1, they like the governor’s proposal for a referendum.”

The numbers seem to be all over the lot on education reform as well.

By 50%-43% voters approve of the way Christie is handling education. 60% think limiting teacher tenure is a good idea and 72% think merit pay for good teachers is a good idea.   Yet voters oppose school vouchers by 50%-44% and oppose expanding charter schools by 52%-41%.

New Jersey voters have a positive view of public school teachers, 57%-25% but an unfavorable view of the teachers union, NJEA, by a 46%-31%.  Only 42% of union households have a favorable view of the NJEA.

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Why Christie’s Poll Numbers Are Surging

Two credible, independent polls released this week indicate that New Jersey voters strongly approve of Governor Chris Christie.  The Monmouth University Poll gives Christie a 55%-37% rating. Quinnipiac respondents approve by 58% to 38%.  Both polls show women and Independent voters swinging strongly to approve of the Governor.

The narratives of both polls indicate that Christie’s growing popularity is the result of the national attention he has received due to his dalliance with the GOP presidential nomination race.  Neither poll ask respondents about Christie’s handling of Hurricane Irene.

While Irene might be a distant memory for pollsters and pundits, many many New Jerseyans are still dealing with the aftermath.

The Star Ledger’s Kathleen O’Brien says that women are warming to Christie because of how he handled Irene. She says Christies’s “Get the hell off of the beach” rebuke won women over because he was protecting the people rather than berating an opponent.

Women and Independents are approving of Christie because of the job he is doing.  The results of his work over the last 20 months are beginning to be felt.   His performance before, during and after Irene was immediate and tangible.  The impact of the reforms he’s fought and cajoled for are gradually paying dividends.

Christie has been traveling the state this week promoting the property tax relief that is resulting from the pension and benefits reform he negotiated in June.  That will help his numbers further.

Christie’s reforms are being appreciated in places where there are no press conferences as well.  

Wednesday evening at  the Henry Hudson Regional High School in Highlands there was a public hearing concerning the proposed tri-district shared services agreement for one Superintendent of Schools for the Atlantic Highlands Elementary, Highlands Elementary and Henry Hudson Regional school districts.  These three districts each have one school.  For decades there have been three superintendents.  Merging the administration of these schools is a no brainer.  Yet prior to the Christie administration, no brainer solutions couldn’t happen.

The vast majority of the speakers at the public hearing in Highlands spoke of how they have been wanting such a no brainer solution for years.  One women said she’s been advocating such since the 1970’s.

Similar reforms are taking place throughout New Jersey.  Common sense solutions that have been talked about for decades to no avail are now beginning to happen.  New Jersey is noticing.

That is why we approve of Chris Christie.  The national attention he has been getting is nice.  We enjoy it because we know him and he is one of us.  But we approve of the job he is doing in New Jersey, not because of the national media and the national GOP loves him.  We approve of him because he is doing what he said he would do.

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Quinnipiac: New Jersey Voters Don’t Want Toll Increases, Want More Women In Elected Office, OK With Muslim Judge

It seems weird to me that a pollster would release a study with issues as diverse as voters attitudes to Port Authority’s proposed toll and fare increases, the sexual proclivities of office holders and whether a Muslim Judge can do his job, but that is exactly what the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute did this morning.

New Jersey voters do not support Port Authority raising tolls.  The only surprise here is that even people who don’t use the Hudson River crossings or Path Trains don’t support the tolls any more than the people who pay the tolls.  17% of voters favor the toll increases, 38% do not, and 43% haven’t heard enough about them. 

54% of New Jersey voters think there should be more women office holders.  80% think that male office holders are more likely than women to be involved in sex scandals.  We needed a poll for that?

71% of voters were unaware that Governor Christie appointed a Muslim to the bench in Passaic County Superior Court. 65% think Judge Mohammed’s religion will not effect his job performance.

If Quinnipiac asked if Muslim male judges are more or less likely to be involved in sex scandals than non-Muslim male judges, they didn’t report the results.

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Quinnipiac Poll: Christie Up, Obama, Sweeney and Oliver Down

New Jersey Has A Huge Gender Gap

By Art Gallagher

A Quinnipiac poll released this morning indicates that Governor Chris Christie’s approval numbers have rebounded since their June 21 poll. Today New Jersey narrowly approves of the Governor’s performance, 47%-46%.  In June Christies’s approval rating was upside down, 44%-47%.

“By a 50-35 percent margin, New Jersey voters like Gov. Christie as a person,”  said the Quinnipiac release.  

As opposed to what?  An alien? A pet? A superhero?   Christie did not have to provide a copy of his birth certificate to earn that popularity.

Obama in trouble

President Obama’s approval ratings have taken a huge 10 point negative swing in New Jersey since the June 21 Quinnipiac poll. 

In June New Jersey voters approved of the President’s performance, 50-46 percent.  Today New Jersey voters disapprove of how the President is doing his job by 52-44 percent.  These are Obama’s worst numbers ever in New Jersey.

Unless Obama’s New Jersey numbers improve, Senator Robert Menendez’s reelection prospects are in jeopardy.  Menendez’s numbers have been anemic and are declining.   In June only 45% of NJ voters approved of Menendez vs 38% who disapproved.  Today 39% approve vs 42% who disapprove.  Only 41% say Menendez deserves to be reelected vs 43% say he does not.  Yet, by a 45-39 percent margin voters say they would back him over an unnamed Republican.   Republicans need to nominate a named candidate.

Senate President Stephen Sweeney and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver should thank the Lord that their positions are not subject to a statewide ballot.

Sweeney’s numbers are 23% approve to 40% disapprove.  He has suffered a 10 point drop since June.

Oliver fares better only because 54% of New Jersey voters don’t know who she is.  21% of voters approve of the Speaker’s performance and 25% disapprove.  Oliver has suffered a 6 point drop since June.

Gender Gap

Men approve of Christie 58-36 percent while woman disapprove of him 55-37 percent.

Women approve of Obama 51-44 percent. Men disapprove 60-37 percent.

MMM accepts responsibility for the gender gap.  According to the web tracking site alexa.com, MMM’s audience is overwhelmingly men with children and graduate degrees.   We need a female writer or two.

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