The races for Congress in Monmouth County are snooze fests. Our incumbent congressmen, Chris Smith and Frank Pallone are heavily favored to be reelected by wide margins.
But just south of us in Ocean and Burlington Counties, the CD-3 race between freshman Democrat Congressman Andy Kim and Republican businessman David Richter is one of the most competitive and closely watch races in the nation. The partisan balance of power in the House of Representative could depend on the outcome of that election.
Former Asbury Park Councilman Jim Keady, left and Belmar Mayor Lawless Matt Doherty, also left
Former Asbury Park Councilman Jim Keady, the man who provoked Governor Chris Christie into his famous “Sit Down and Shut Up” rant and then asked him out to dinner was easily defeated in his bid to become the Democrat nominee for the House of Representatives in New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District.
Frederick John LaVergne will challenge Congressman Tom MacArthur the November general election. Based on unofficial results, LaVergne was the choice of 62.7% of CD-3 Democrats with 32,493 votes to Keady’s 19,347 votes.
LaVergne, who had the backing on the Burlington County Democrats, reportedly spent $600 on his primary campaign. Keady is reported to have spent $55,000.
Save Jersey has called the contentious Republican primary in the third Congressional District for former Randolph Mayor Tom MacArthur.
In a contest of carpetbaggers to replace retiring Congressman Jon Runyan in the House of Representatives, MacArthur beat former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan handedly.
With 70% of the votes counted in the Burlington County portion of the district and 63% counted in Ocean County, MacArthur is leading with 63% of the vote.
MacArthur will face off against Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard in November. Belgard trounced Howard Kleinhendler of Lakewood with almost 80% of the vote. Kleinhendler was the Democratic nominee against Congressman Chris Smith in the 4th district in 2010.
Former NFL star Jon Runyon will soon also be a former congressman.
The 3rd Congressional District Republican will not seek a third term in Washington, according to a report in the Burlington County Times. (Hat tip SaveJersey)
Meanwhile, the APP ( All Phoney Palloney?) read Patrick Murray’s poll and wrote a headline claiming that Pallone is leading Little “by nearly 2-1.” 2-1? Murray said Pallone has a 12% lead. 2-1 would be a 33% lead. 12% is not nearly 33%.
Even my own analysis on Murray’s poll has been bothering me:
Murray classifies a likely voter as someone who has voted in 2 of the last four general elections. Of the 333,519 registered voters in CD-6, 60,053 voted in 2 of the four last general elections; 23,750 (40%) Democrats, 27,791 (46%) Independents and 8,512 (14%) Republicans, according to GOP records of voter activity.
CD-6 has 333,544 registered voters. In the last five elections, an average of 157,000 people voted. The average is 144,000 if you don’t count the 2008 presidential election (254,543 voters) and the 2007 state legislative election(96,950 voters). Yet, only 60,053 people voted in 2 of the last four elections, the criteria Murray used to select “likely voters.” Granted, Murray used a different list than I did to measure who voted in 2 of the last 4 elections. If there is a wide disparity between the two, my analysis of his poll is as flawed as the APP headline. I think I’ll ask him about his list.
Incidentally, Real Clear Politics also rates the CD-3 race between Jon Runyan and John Adler as a toss up. RCP rates Scott Sipprelle’s race against Rush Holt as “Leans Dem.” I find the CD-12 rating hard to believe. I’m not on the ground in CD-12 as much as I like to be, but I wake up every morning to “I’m Scott Sipprelle and I approved this message.”
