Christie’s N.J. backers now donating to Jeb Bush’s 2016 campaign

WASHINGTON — State Sen. Joe Kyrillos isn’t the only supporter of Gov. Chris Christie to pitch his tent in Jeb Bush’s presidential camp. Kyrillos (R-Monmouth), a longtime Christie friend and political ally, contributed the maximum $2,700 to the former Florida governor’s presidential campaign. So have others who financially supported Christie during his two runs for governor.… Read the rest of this entry »

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What if Menendez resigns?

Senator Bob Menendez, left, and Congressman Frank Pallone, making like chimpmunks at the 2012 Belmar St. Patrick’s parade. Photo credit Charles Measley

First of all, Senator Bob Menendez might not even be indicted.  Leaks out of the Justice Department have been notoriously unreliable since Chris Christie resigned as U.S. Attorney in 2008.

If Menendez is indicted, he probably will not resign. In his press conference this evening, the Senator defiantly insisted on the “appropriateness and lawfulness” of his relationship with Dr. Salomon Melgen, the Florida ophthalmologist who is Menendez’s friend and benefactor. He declared that he is not going anywhere.

If, as CNN speculates, Menendez is charged with corruption this month, it could be Halloween before he goes to trial. Former Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell was indicted in January of 2014.  His trial didn’t start until late July and didn’t end to early September.   Unless Menendez makes a deal to avoid prosecution that includes his resignation, there is not likely to be a Special Election to fill the Senate seat until next year….2016, the year of the next presidential election.

If Chris Christie is still Governor in 2016 and Menendez’s seat becomes vacant, he will get to choose the next Senator and set the date a special election.   There could be a mid-year Special Election or the Special Election could be on the same day as the presidential election.  There’s no way to know now what is likely to happen.

Still, the prospect of a Senatorial vacancy stirs speculation and the phone lines among both Democrats and Republicans have been burning this afternoon since the news of the possible prosecution broke.

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Lautenberg will not seek another term

New Jersey’s senior U.S. Senator, Frank Lautenberg, will not seek reelection when his term expires in 2014.

The Star Ledger broke the story with a statement from the senator:

“I am not announcing the end of anything. I am announcing the beginning of a two-year mission to pass new gun safety laws, protect children from toxic chemicals and create more opportunities for working families in New Jersey,” Lautenberg told The Star-Ledger. “While I may not be seeking re-election, there is plenty of work to do before the end of this term and I’m going to keep fighting as hard as ever for the people of New Jersey in the U.S. Senate.”

Lautenberg will be 91 when his term expires.  Recent independent poll have indicated that New Jersey voters favor Newark Mayor Cory Booker heading to the Senate.

Congressman Frank Pallone is said to be ready to challenge Booker for the Democratic nomination in 2014.   State Senate President Steve Sweeney and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver have also indicated interest in the Democratic nomination.

Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornik said he will not be a candidate.

TV and radio personality Geraldo Rivera is the only Republican who has publically expressed an interest in competing for the Senate seat.  State Senators Tom Kean, JR,  and Joe Kyrillos have been mentioned as possible candidates, as has Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick, Lt. Governor Kim Guadango, and bio-tech executive/Navy Intelligence Officer John Crowley.  New Jersey has not had a Republican in the U.S. Senate since 1974.

In a statement issued to the media, Governor Chris Christie said, “Frank Lautenberg and I have had our differences through the years, but I’ve always respected him for his tenacity, devotion to the people of New Jersey and his love for and commitment to public service. I will always be grateful for his doggedness in fighting with me and the delegation to ensure congressional passage of an aid package after Hurricane Sandy that is delivering necessary assistance to our residents. I wish him the best in his retirement.”

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A Dumb Poll

By Art Gallagher

Fairleigh Dickinson University released a PublicMind poll this morning that indicates that U.S. Senator Robert Menendez would beat bio-tech entrepreneur John Crowley in a hypothetical matchup for the U.S. Senate election that will happen next year by a margin of 45%-26%.

50% of the respondents have never heard of Menendez. 

The Hudson County Democrat first went to the Senate in 2006 to complete Jon Corzine’s term after Corzine became governor.  He was elected to his own term over State Senator Tom Kean, JR the following November.  Prior to being appointed to the U.S. Senate by Corzine, Menendez represented the 13th congressional disrict in the House of Representatives for 15 years.

50% of the voters don’t know Menendez.   The conclusion of the poll should be that the PublicMind is empty.

84% of the respondents said they never heard of Crowley.  Why would they?  He’s a private citizen who has never run for office.  He is an impressive figure, to those who have heard of him.  He was written up in the Wall Street Journal eight years ago and there was a movie, Extraordinary Measures, starring Harrison Ford about his efforts to find a cure to a disease that inflicts his children.   Brendan Fraser played Crowley in the movie.

Extraordinary Measures was not exactly a blockbuster.  It didn’t make Crowley a celebrity.   Maybe if FDU polled Menendez against Fraser it would have been a closer poll.  Maybe not.  If they polled Menendez against George of the Jungle or Dudley D0-Right, film characters Fraser played in the 90’s, it might have been closer.

Menendez outperformed Crowley so handily in the PublicMind Poll released today because he was identified in the questions as the incumbent and as a Democrat.   If the question had been, “Who do you favor for U.S. Senate in 2012, Robert Menendez or John Crowely?” without identifying Menendez’s status as incumbent or either man’s party affiliation, the results would have been very different.

If FDU PublicMind follows their usual pattern, they will shortly release match ups between Menendez and other GOP potential contenders for the 2012 U.S. Senate race.   The polling was done between May 16 and 22.  They release the data and their conclusions piecemeal. 

With the exception of polls that rate the executive, the President and the Governor, the conclusion will most always be that the public is not paying attention.

MMM demonstrated that conclusion in March when we conducted person on the street interviews to see if members of the public could possibly care about “continuity of representation,” the abstraction that Rutgers professor and legislative map selector Alan Rosenthal invented to justify gerrymandering. 

We repost the video of those interviews today for your amusement and dismay:

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