Running Out The Clock?

With Just 56 Days Remaining In The Session, Let’s Hope The Legislature Gets Back From Their Current Vacation Ready To Finally Address Some Of New Jersey’s Most Pressing Issues

“You know we have more work to do, the tool kit has to happen. We have to find a way to put a tool kit together, again I’m sure it will be some kind of a compromise, but the core principles will be the same. … We need to continue to work now and seize the momentum that the Governor said to continue to make improvements in New Jersey.”– Senate President Steve Sweeney, Press Conference On Bipartisan Property Tax CapCompromise, July 3, 2010

THE LEGISLATURE HAS FAILED TO TAKE ACTION ON KEY ELEMENTS OF GOVERNOR CHRISTIE’S REFORM AGENDA

MEANWHILE, SEVERAL OTHER CRITICAL TOOL KIT REFORM BILLS LANGUISH IN THE LEGISLATURE

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LD 11…..2013

By Matthew Gould, cross posted at Republican Out Of The Blue

It is no secret that the Republican field in New Jersey’s 11th legislative district ran a tough campaign this election cycle with mail pieces, some controversial, going out almost daily leading up to the election (I had the pleasure of getting 2 in one day), robocalls from everyone and their mother, door knocking and lots of fundraising. But the question is why? Why are these three popular incumbents running like their seat depends on it when the 2011 election pretty much became a lock when the Democrats announced their field?

The answer is 2013. The Republicans were 1% worried about 2011 and 99% worried about 2013

The next time New Jerseyians vote for a new state legislature is 726 days from now for those who are counting. By then the London Summer Olympics will have ended, we will hopefully still be here (granted the end of the world predictions are wrong), if all goes accordingly we will have a new President of the United States and Chris Christie will be so popular there wont even be a need for an election in New Jersey. Well that last one is a bit far fetched. But there is still a question as to why the District 11 incumbents are so concerned with 2013 and I think I have an answer for you.

Background

• The redrawn 11th district gave democrats a voter registration advantage over Republicans of approximately 10,000, removing Republican heavy Wall Twp. and Rumson from the district and adding the Democrat saturated towns of Asbury Park, Neptune, Ocean and Long Branch. 
• Asbury Park, Neptune and Ocean are home to a large number of minority voters. 
• In 2009 Chris Christie won the new LD-11 65%-35% over unpopular incumbent John Corzine.
• The Democrat map, which was chosen by Alan Rosenthal, the 11th member of the redistricting team put the 11th district in play.

What does this all mean? After the map was drawn parties only had a limited number of days to recruit candidates to run for office. The Republican Party had the clear advantage in the process as the LD-11 looped three Republican incumbents together, all with established support and campaign structures. The Democrats on the other hand were rushed to choose candidates, all of whom would be running for the first time. On top of that the Republicans had candidates in numerous other districts, most notable, 1,2,7,14,18 and 38 who were able to divert the resources of the Democrat State Committee Unions and big democratic donors from seats like LD-11 that could be possible pick ups to seats they needed to save.

In 2013 Gov. Christie will be running for re-election and although there is no clear cut Democratic challenger there is a chance Newark mayor Cory Booker will be nominated. Bookers possible nomination plays a big roll in the outcome of the Legislative election in D-11 come 2013. Why so much emphasis on Cory Booker? Mr. Booker has become somewhat of a popular national figure having appeared on The Oprah Winfrey show with Facebook founder Mark Zuckerburg to receive a $100 million dollar grant for Newark Public schools, he is everywhere on twitter, pioneering the way politicians use the popular social media site, his nationwide appeal opens the door for large amounts of out of state money, especially in an off year gubernatorial election where the democrats will be looking to take back the governors mansion and the NJEA will work tirelessly and spend millions of dollars of membership dues to take Christie out and Mr. Booker is a very popular minority politician.

I will be willing to bet a large amount of money that the democrats will be targeting the 11th district in 2013 not only as a possible pick up in the Legislature but for big democratic turn out in the gubernatorial election. This would hold especially true if Cory Booker were to get the nomination. The New Jersey democrats look at Cory Booker as an Obama type politician; charismatic, excellent communicator and campaigner and a candidate that will spark enthusiasm among minority voters. This spells possible trouble for the Republicans in district 11 come 2013, especially in towns with a large minority population, Asbury Park, Neptune and Long Branch, all of which are additions for to the 11th district for Casagrande who has very little name recognition in these towns. Mary Pat Angelini has had Asbury Park, Neptune and Long Branch in her district for sometime now so she has a slight advantage when it comes to name recognition especially since most of the towns she had not represented in the old 11th district are Republican strong holds.

This leads us back to the 2011 mid-term elections and the tough campaign the LD-11 Republican team   ran. I don’t think it is because they were worried about their democratic challengers in this election cycle but because of their concern for 2013.

None of this is set in stone, a lot can still change in 726 days. It is not known who the Democrats will nominate as their gubernatorial candidate (Republicans get to sit back and watch the bickering for once), the Republicans will not let such a large portion of Monmouth County, which produced a large plurality for Christie in 2009 fall by the wayside, money will flow in from out of state sources for both parties and the Republicans may have an ally in the White House come 2013, especially if Mitt Romney, a close Christie ally, gets the republican nomination and wins the White House and Gov. Christies popularity continues to rise as the state see’s results from his policies. Heck, there are hundreds of factors that will play into 2013 but it seems to me like Beck, Angelini and Casagrande are taking nothing for granted. A move, I think will pay off in 2 years.

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Why Christie’s Poll Numbers Are Surging

Two credible, independent polls released this week indicate that New Jersey voters strongly approve of Governor Chris Christie.  The Monmouth University Poll gives Christie a 55%-37% rating. Quinnipiac respondents approve by 58% to 38%.  Both polls show women and Independent voters swinging strongly to approve of the Governor.

The narratives of both polls indicate that Christie’s growing popularity is the result of the national attention he has received due to his dalliance with the GOP presidential nomination race.  Neither poll ask respondents about Christie’s handling of Hurricane Irene.

While Irene might be a distant memory for pollsters and pundits, many many New Jerseyans are still dealing with the aftermath.

The Star Ledger’s Kathleen O’Brien says that women are warming to Christie because of how he handled Irene. She says Christies’s “Get the hell off of the beach” rebuke won women over because he was protecting the people rather than berating an opponent.

Women and Independents are approving of Christie because of the job he is doing.  The results of his work over the last 20 months are beginning to be felt.   His performance before, during and after Irene was immediate and tangible.  The impact of the reforms he’s fought and cajoled for are gradually paying dividends.

Christie has been traveling the state this week promoting the property tax relief that is resulting from the pension and benefits reform he negotiated in June.  That will help his numbers further.

Christie’s reforms are being appreciated in places where there are no press conferences as well.  

Wednesday evening at  the Henry Hudson Regional High School in Highlands there was a public hearing concerning the proposed tri-district shared services agreement for one Superintendent of Schools for the Atlantic Highlands Elementary, Highlands Elementary and Henry Hudson Regional school districts.  These three districts each have one school.  For decades there have been three superintendents.  Merging the administration of these schools is a no brainer.  Yet prior to the Christie administration, no brainer solutions couldn’t happen.

The vast majority of the speakers at the public hearing in Highlands spoke of how they have been wanting such a no brainer solution for years.  One women said she’s been advocating such since the 1970’s.

Similar reforms are taking place throughout New Jersey.  Common sense solutions that have been talked about for decades to no avail are now beginning to happen.  New Jersey is noticing.

That is why we approve of Chris Christie.  The national attention he has been getting is nice.  We enjoy it because we know him and he is one of us.  But we approve of the job he is doing in New Jersey, not because of the national media and the national GOP loves him.  We approve of him because he is doing what he said he would do.

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Christie Administration Announces Funding To Spur Small Business Lending And Job Creation In New Jersey

Trenton, NJ – Governor Chris Christie today announced that the State of New Jersey has been approved by the U.S. Department of Treasury for $33.8 million in funding through the State Small Business Credit Initiative (SSBCI), part of the federal Small Business Jobs Act of 2010, to encourage small business lending and job creation in the state. The intent of the SSBCI, which is to create jobs and strengthen state lending programs, mirrors New Jersey’s recent efforts to enhance its support of the state’s small business community.”Small businesses are the job creating engines of New Jersey’s economy and we’ve made support for small business a top priority through targeted tax cuts, regulatory relief and lending programs,” said Governor Christie. “This funding being made available through the State Small Business Credit Initiative will strengthen our ongoing efforts to help small businesses succeed and grow in our state and create good paying, lasting jobs for New Jersey families.”

Governor Christie has made economic development a top priority by ensuring that New Jersey becomes a business-friendly state. Through the New Jersey Partnership for Action, under the direction of Lt. Governor Guadagno, the Christie Administration has implemented an aggressive economic development agenda, including overhauling state government’s regulatory system and reducing the red tape that stifles economic growth and imposes costs on businesses and citizens. The Governor’s Fiscal Year 2012 Budget provided for $185 million in targeted, job creating business tax relief and incentives to spur growth. When fully phased in over 5 years, the Governor’s tax policy changes will provide $2.35 billion in job creating tax relief. By implementing these policies, Governor Christie has ensured that New Jersey will once again be “Open for Business.”

The funds from SSBCI will be received by the New Jersey Department of Treasury in three tranches over two years, based upon at least an 80-percent commitment of the first and then second distributions. Through a Memorandum of Understanding, the New Jersey Economic Development Authority (EDA) will use the funds to deploy loans, credit guarantees and loan participations through its existing small business lending programs, and to make a venture capital investment. Funds will be targeted to small businesses, small manufacturers, and women and minority-owned enterprises, with a particular focus on businesses that are located in underserved communities throughout New Jersey.

As part of this effort, the EDA Board today took action to enhance its portfolio by expanding access to capital for small businesses. The Board approved an increase in the funding available through the EDA’s Fund for Community Economic Development (FCED) to support micro lenders, Community Development Financial Institutions and Urban Enterprise Zones that have a successful lending track record in their local communities. Under the “Loan to Lenders” component of the FCED, organizations with a successful EDA history will now be able to qualify for up to $750,000, an increase of $250,000 from what was previously available; new customers may qualify for up to $500,000. The loan term has been extended to up to 15 years, with interest-only payments for up to five years. Previously, terms were available for up to ten years, with interest-only payments for up to three years. Additionally, the use of funds has been expanded to also include lines of credit.

“As the state’s ‘bank for business,’ the EDA has a successful history of partnering with financial institutions to leverage its resources and ensure small businesses have access to the capital they need to remain and grow in New Jersey,” said Lt. Governor Guadagno. “By utilizing EDA’s existing partnerships within the lending community, New Jersey will be able to strengthen its current portfolio of assistance and help our small businesses secure the funds they need to expand and create jobs.”

For information on EDA’s small business programs, visit http://businesslending.njeda.com. To learn more about opportunities for business growth throughout New Jersey, visit the state’s business portal at www.NewJerseyBusiness.gov or call the Business Action Center at (866) 534-7789.

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Christie’s Numbers Still Climbing

By Art Gallagher

Governor Chris Christie is enjoying his highest approval ratings to date in New Jersey, according to a Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll released this morning. 

55% of registered voters approve of the Governor compared to 37% who disapprove.  Among women there was a 15 point swing in favor of the governor.  53% of women approve while 40% disapprove.  In an August Monmouth poll, 45% of women approved of Christie and 48% disapproved.

Among Independents, 58% approve of Christie and 34% disapprove.

Monmouth Polling Director Patrick Murray’s questions and his narrative of the poll focused on the national attention that Christie has enjoyed during his fund raising trip, his speech at the Reagan Library, and the speculation over whether or not he would run for president.  Christie’s preparation for and response to Hurricane Irene were not specifically addressed in this poll.

Despite his increased popularity, New Jersey is not optimistic that Christie will be able to forward his agenda through the Democratic legislature.  54% of New Jerseyans say that the Democratic leaders in the legislature are not working well with Christie compared to 32% who say they have been working well together.  Among Independents, 59% say the Democrats and Christie are not working so well together.

Today’s Monmouth poll is consistent with the FDU poll released on September 27.   In the FDU poll, while 54% of New Jersey voters approved of Christie, 47% said that the state is on the wrong track.

As on wrote after the FDU poll and as InTheLobby wrote yesterday  Christie has an opportunity to lead the electorate into giving him a more cooperative legislature, just as he led the electorate to defeat 59% of the school budgets in 2010 when his approval numbers were not nearly as strong as they are today.

Christie has said that he doesn’t think the legislative elections will be a referendum on his performance “given the map” that is gerrymandered to favor a Democratic legislature.  In a normal year, Christie would probably be right about that. 

However this is not a normal year. It is not normal for a sitting governor to enjoy 55% approval ratings when unemployment is at 9.4%  half way through his term.  With the exception a the few “competitive” districts, there has been no campaign to speak of.  Christie has an opportunity here to close the gap between Democrats and Republicans in the legislature.  Taking control of at least one house of the legislature is not impossible.  It is not likely, but it is not impossible if Christie asks the electorate to give it to him.

I hope he does.

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Christie Will Endorse Romney This Afternoon

Multiple media sources are reporting that Governor Chris Christie will endorse Mitt Romney for President during a press conference in New Hampshire at 3PM this afternoon.

Romney’s website is already hailing the endorsement.

Locally, news of Christie’s endorsement has had a negative reaction from Bayshore Tea Party Group founder Barbara Gonzalez who sent an “urgent” email to the group’s members and other Tea Party group leaders asking that they “take a leap of faith” and endorse Herman Cain for President.

“THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE ANTICIPATED WHEN HERMAN CAIN STARTED TO RISE IN THE POLLS”, wrote Gonzalez,

First, Christie was dragged out to run for President, and when that didn’t work, he is off to endorse Romney.

Are we really going to sit here and let them do this? Do you see what is happening here?

I know some of you don’t agree with me, but I am not going to sit back and let them dictate to me who is going to be the next President.”

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SNL Spoofs Romney and Christie

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Scott Sipprelle Is Not Running For President

Neither is Sarah Palin

Governor Chris Christie is not the only Jersey Guy who announced yesterday that he is not running for president.  On the Real Jersey Guys Radio Show with former Senator Dick LaRossa and Art Gallagher yesterday afternoon, Scott Sipprelle, last years GOP nominee for Congress in the 12th Congressional District, said he’s not running either.

Following suit, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin told Mark Levin that she’s also not running.

If you missed the show with Sipprelle, here’s a recording:

My wife said she enjoyed it.  I hope you do too.

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Governor Chris Christie’s Landmark Pension Reforms Deliver $267 Million in Property Tax Relief to New Jerseyans This Year

Trenton, NJ – Governor Chris Christie today announced that the historic, bipartisan pension reforms he signed into law on June 28, 2011 will save New Jersey’s property taxpayers and local governments $267 million in Fiscal Year 2012. Today’s announcement includes $224 million in local taxpayer savings in the Police and Fireman’s Retirement Systems (PFRS), in addition to previously released savings estimates of $43 million in the Public Employee Retirement System (PERS), for a total savings of $267 million across municipalities, school districts and counties this year.

“This $267 million in savings is the direct result of our bipartisan efforts to take on the biggest challenges facing our state and deliver sustainable, long-term property tax relief to New Jersey’s families and job creators. Because we took action, New Jersey taxpayers are now seeing that real results will ease strained local budgets and bring costs under control at the local level,” said Governor Christie. “These savings are critical to getting our economy moving again and creating jobs, while also protecting the core local government services New Jerseyans expect and deserve.” 

This historic pension and benefits reform law provides more than $120 billion of savings on state and local government pension payments over the next 30 years. Due to the Governor’s commitment to reverse two decades of irresponsible neglect of the pension system, New Jersey’s taxpayers will now realize substantial savings over the next three decades.

The Governor’s comprehensive set of reforms means critical savings for state and local governments and real property tax relief for New Jerseyans.

·         $79 Billion in State Contribution Savings: Over the next 30 years, the state pension contribution will be $148 billion, a projected savings of nearly $80 billion. Without reform, the state was projected to contribute $227 billion over the same period.

·         $43 Billion in Local Government Contribution Savings: Over the next 30 years, local government pension contributions will be $70 billion, a projected savings of nearly $43 billion. Without reform, local governments were projected to contribute $113 billion over the same period.

“These initial savings are just a first installment of benefits that taxpayers will realize under the Governor’s landmark pension and benefit reform law,” said Treasurer Andrew Sidamon-Eristoff. “New Jersey communities, from the biggest to the smallest, will see savings as result of these reforms.”   

The $267 million represents local government savings from the projected costs of pension contributions in PFRS and PERS had Governor Christie’s pension reforms not become law. The statewide, year over year savings in pension costs experienced by local governments between fiscal year 2011 and fiscal year 2012 is approximately $84 million. 

A savings breakdown of Fiscal Year 2012 PFRS pension cost savings for each local government in New Jersey – municipalities, counties and other local government units – can be accessed at the Department of Treasury’s website here: http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/pensions/epbam/exhibits/pdf/2012-pfrs-comparison-revised-78.pdf

The local government savings breakdown for PERS, previously released on July 14, 2011, can be accessed here: http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/pensions/epbam/exhibits/pdf/2012-pers-comparison-revised-78.pdf

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What is we held an election and nobody cared? Part 3, The 12th Legislative District

Part 1.  11th Legislative District

Part 2. Part 2a.   13th Legislative District

Prelude from Part 1:

In seven five weeks New Jersey voters will have the opportunity to elect an entirely new state legislature.

Patrick Murray’s Monmouth University/Neptune Nudniks poll conducted in August indicates that New Jersey voters disapprove of their legislature by a 48%-35% margin.  Democrats disapprove by 45%-38%.  Independents, the majority, disapprove by a whopping 50%-28%.  Surprisingly, Republicans approve of the legislature by a 45%-41% margin.  Public workers disapprove by 55%-26%.

Based solely on those poll results, one might expect that we’d be in the middle of a spirited campaign with Democrats and public workers rallying to throw the Republicans out of office.  Obviously that is not the case.  Democrats control the legislature that their base and Independents disapprove of strongly.

Due to Dr. Alan Rosenthal’s decision that New Jersey voters are better off being continuously represented by legislators they don’t know, there are only a handful of competitive legislative races.  The Democrats will continue to control the legislature for the next two years.  Probably the next ten years.

Part 3

Now that Governor Christie has put an end to the presidential speculation and passionately reitierated his commitment to fixing our broken state, one might think that an election with every seat in the legislature up for grabs coming up in five weeks would be an opportunity for Christie to foward his fixes by picking up support in the legislature.  Christie’s poll numbers are surging in New Jersey.  An FDU poll last week indicated that 54% of New Jersey voters approve of the job he is doing.  FDU also indicated that 47% of New Jersey voters disapprove of President Obama’s performance, down from dramatically from a May poll after Bin Laden was killed that indicated 56% of New Jerseyans approved of Obama.

Yet Christie apparently doesn’t see an opportunity.  During the Q&A of his press conference yesterday the Governor said that he doesn’t see the upcoming legislative election as a referendum on his performance “given the map.”  Once again the conventional wisdom is that the only vote that really mattered in this legislative election, and the next four, was the vote that Dr. Alan Rosenthal cast as the tie breaking member of the Legislative Reapportionment Commission adapting the Democratic gerrymandered map that assured “continuity of representation.”

Now that Christie is focused only on New Jersey maybe he will launched an unexpected campaign to defy conventional wisdom and the Rosenthal/Democratic map. During his fund raising trip last week the New Jersey GOP was one of the beneficiaries of his efforts.  Christie has moved the electorate in unexpected ways previously.  During the 2010 school board elections he called for New Jersey to defeat school budgets in towns where teachers would not agree to contribute to their healthcare.  Could that be done in a legislative general election against a gerrymandered map?  Its wishful thinking on my part.  I would love to see him try it but would be more surprised if he did than if he didn’t.

12th Legislative District

Like the 11th and 13th districts, the 12th has more registered Democratic voters than Republicans, according to Labels and Lists.   The district is compromised of the northern part of Burlington County (6,448 registered voters), Old Bridge in MiddlesexCounty (34,626 registered voters) Western Monmouth County (43,861 registered voters) and the Ocean County towns of Jackson and Plumsted (36,656 registered voters).

Despite a voter registration edge for the Democrats, 29,702 to 27,482 Republicans and 64,407 Independents, the district is considered among the safest of Republican districts.  On the September 14 Real Jersey Guys Radio Show political strategist Chris Kniesler called the district “deep red.”

The Republicans expected to cruise to victory on November 8th are Assemblyman Sam Thompson, Old Bridge in the old 13th district ,who is running for Senate, Assemblyman Rondal Dancer, Plumsted of the old 30th district, and Monmouth County Freeholder Director Rob Clifton, Matawan, running for Assembly.

I honestly didn’t know that names of the Democratic Assembly candidates before reading The Asbury ParkPress’s write up on the district.  They are Catherine Tinney Rome and William Spedding. The Asbury Park Press didn’t say where they are from.

The Democratic Senate candidate is Robert Brown of Old Bridge.  Politikernj describes Brown as a “veteran loser.” He ran against Thompson for Assembly in the old 13th in 2007 and in 2009.  In 07 his running mate was Middletown’s Patricia Walsh.  In 09 he ran with Middletown’s Jim Grenefage.

While Brown doesn’t stand a chance against Thompson, he is providing some comic entertainment to the campaign.  He has forsaken his liberal Democratic bonafides and is attempting to run to the right of Thompson.  He has a Republicans for Brown website and has attempted to use twitter to bait this website and Save Jersey into supporting his candidacy.

Brown wants the campaign to be about Thompson’s state pension.  He contends Thompson, 76 years old, is “double-dipping” because he is collecting his legislative salary and the pension he receives as a result of working for state health department for 22 years and the NJ Turnpike Authority for 3 years.   Brown says he will give up his $14K per year police disablity pension if elected to the Senate where he would earn a $49K salary.  He says Thompson should give up his $49K pension.   Thompson says he won’t.

Brown collects a disablity pension as the result of an 1981 incident where he was shot in his hand and shoulder. He killed the perp who shot him.  Brown recovered from his wounds and went back to work with the Old Bridge Police Department for five years when he requested a disability pension due to lingering physical and psychological disabilities.   He finally retired from the Old Bridge PD in 1988, seven years after the shooting, and litigated his pension for another 11 years before prevailing in the  NJ Superior Court Appellate Division.

In response to Brown’s numerous tweets trying to bait me into his nonsense, I tweeted back that he must not have recovered from his psychological disablities because he is crazy if he thinks I am going to help him get elected.  I have no doubt that if Brown were a Senator he would recover his Democratic roots and do whatever Steve Sweeney told him to do.

While Brown wants the election to be about Thompson’s pension and his own heroism which he has been trying to parlay into a political career for years, The Asbury Park Press decided the campaign is about the horse racing industry.

In reality, unless something very unexpected happens, the 12th district race is a campaign about nothing as the Republicans will win a low turnout election easily with no credible opposition.

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