A Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll released this morning echoed the recent Quinnipiac and Rutgers-Eagleton Polls. Over 70% of New Jersey voters approve of Governor Chris Christie’s performance and over 60% favor his reelection. Christie is trouncing presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee Senator Barbara Buono by more than 40 points.
78% of voters haven’t heard enough of Buono to form an opinion about her. Polling Director Patrick Murray said the race is likely to narrow to a 20% gap in favor of Christie and the Democratic challenger becomes better known.
“There is a long history that shows horse race polling has little predictive value this far out from an election. This is especially true when there is a popular incumbent and a largely unknown challenger. The important number here is that 6-in-10 voters support Gov. Christie’s re-election,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “This suggests that the race should close in on a 20 point margin as the campaign progresses and Buono becomes better known. The question remains whether the challenger can peel off Christie supporters to shrink that gap even more.”
Murray says that jobs, property taxes, schools, storm recovery and gun control are very important issues to the New Jersey electorate. Minimum wage is an important issue with most voters supporting an increase. However, Christie’s conditional veto of a minimum wage increase has not hurt his support with most voters.
According to Murray’s analysis, Buono has the potential to motivate 7% of the electorate to switch from voting for Christie to voting for her. If she gets all of them, Christie still wins with over 50% of the vote.
Monmouth polling staff attempted to identify voters who could potentially be motivated to switch support from the incumbent because of this issue. This group includes voters who: feel Gov. Christie deserves re-election, are dissatisfied with his veto, say they will vote to support a minimum wage ballot measure, and report that the issue is very important to their vote for governor. Analysis shows that this group comprises about 7% of the total electorate. Hypothetically, if Sen. Buono were able to convince all of these voters to abandon their support for Christie, his re-election support would remain above the 50% mark.
Atlantic City Attorney Seth Grossman will kick off his campaign to deny Chris Christie the GOP nomination for governor this morning outside the Revel Casino and in Newark across from Red Bull Stadium this afternoon.
The former Atlantic County freeholder and Atlantic City councilman who was arrested with Steve Lonegan for trespassing outside of one of Governor Jon Corzine’s Town Hall meetings in 2008 wants the State to refuse to pay bonds that were not approved by the voters and to cap public pensions at $50,000 per year per retiree. He says New Jersey is in the same mess it was in three years ago when Christie took office, but now its a bi-partisan mess, not just a Democratic mess now.
Grossman told MMM that he has raised $5,000 for his endeavor thus far. He hopes to raise $15,000 by the end of this week to open an office. If he can raise another $45,000 by the end of February, he hopes to hire a campaign manager and appeal to national conservatives to who are upset with how Christie embraced President Obama after Superstorm Sandy for the rest of the $388,000 he will need to qualify for State matching funds for the primary.
In a Rutgers-Eagleton poll released this morning, 64% of New Jersey voters, including 87% of Republicans, say that Christie deserves to be reelected. The Governor has raised well over $2 million for his reelection campaign and will not take State matching funds for the primary. Christie will not be in New Jersey for Grossman’s announcement. He is in California for a fundraising tour including an event at the home of facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg.
The Christie Administration released the following statement regarding AshBrit’s contract with the State for the cleanup from Superstorm Sandy:
Taking Emergency and Long-Term Action To Assist Debris Removal
Competitively Bid Emergency Contract With AshBritt Allowed New Jersey Towns To Take Immediate Action In Addressing Debris Removal In An Efficient And Responsible Manner
________________________________________________
AshBritt Had Extensive Experience And Unique Capabilities To Respond To Major Disasters:
Christie will be in Union Beach tomorrow for his “mobile cabinet.” He is scheduled to address the press at 11:15am at the Union Beach Fire Hose Company #1, 1224 Florence Ave.
Assemblyman Vincent Prieto (D-Hudson), Chairman of the Assembly Budget Committee, and Senate President Steve Sweeney told The Star Ledger that they are going to investigate the lucrative no-bid state contract that AshBrit received from the Christie Administration for Superstorm Sandy clean up and the well connected lobbyists the company used to sell their premium priced services to municipal officials from Sandy ravaged communities.
“We already had questions about how Sandy relief money was being spent, and these findings raise those questions to a new level,” Prieto told The Star-Ledger. “This money is supposed to be spent properly to benefit New Jersey residents and communities devastated by Sandy, not become a feeding frenzy for lobbyists and an excuse to bypass regulations on business, the environment and pay-to-play.”
As a conservative, it warms my heart to see Democrats fighting wasteful spending. Maybe Trenton really has been turned upside down.
As a skeptic, I expect that whatever hearings the Democrats hold will be done with the intention of denting Governor Christie’s substantial Sandy related armor going into the November election.
On Tuesday, from 9am to 5pm, Governor Christie’s Office will be holding a “Mobile Cabinet” at the Union Beach Hose Company 1 located at 1224 Florence Avenue. We will have staff from multiple departments of state government and FEMA that can assist with your insurance issues, help answer questions about flood maps or any other issue related to recovery and rebuilding after Superstorm Sandy. This is a great opportunity to help you, your family, and neighbors on the road to recovery.
Surprisingly, 2010 congressional candidate Scott Sipprelle was leading the poll by a wide margin before we took it down this morning. Sipprelle had 39% if the votes, followed by State Senator Joe Kyrillos with 19%. Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno and Congressman Chris Smith each had 12%. Here are the results of the original poll.
We’ve added former Highlands Mayor Anna Little’s name to the mix because we had a couple of complaints that she was excluded.
Monmouth County’s newest Demcratic office holder, Marlboro Councilwoman Carol Mazzola, is not ready to join Mayor Jon Hormik on the Barbara Buono for Governor bandwagon.
“I love Chris Christie!’ Mazzola exclaimed when asked what she thought about the Governor. But she stopped short of endorsing the New Jersey head of her former party. “Ask me in the fall when its time to make a decision.”
Mazzola was elected to the Marlboro Township Committee as a Republican in 2009. She announced earlier this month that she will run for reelection as a Democrat on Hornik’s team.
Republican Governors Association communications director Mike Schrimpf issued the following statement on the New Jersey governor’s race following the Democratic Governors Association embrace of state senator Barbara Buono’s candidacy earlier today:
“After failing to recruit their first, second, third or fourth choice candidates into the campaign for governor, Democrats have finally settled on state senator Barbara Buono.
Given the tremendous leadership Governor Christie has displayed in closing an $11 billion budget deficit without raising taxes, capping property taxes, and enacting pension and education reforms, the Democrats’ inability to recruit one of their preferred candidates into the race is not surprising. That said, we look forward to contrasting Governor Christie’s record of reform with Senator Buono’s record of higher taxes, increased spending and deeper debt.
While we commend Senator Buono for running, we are confident voters will want to continue the progress New Jersey has made since he took office.”
Atlantic City Attorney Seth Grossman will kick off his campaign to deny Chris Christie the GOP nomination for governor this morning outside the Revel Casino and in Newark across from Red Bull Stadium this afternoon.