NJ Candidates, Political PACs Break the Bank, Breaking Records for Spending

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What can we learn from the Booker-Lonegan contest?

For those who try to read political tea leaves, the only lesson to be taken from the results of the Special Election this week is that apples and oranges make fruit salad.

For conservatives and Tea Partiers enthused that Steve Lonegan lost to Cory Booker by a significantly lower margin than Joe Kyrillos lost to Bob Menendez last year, consider this; Kyrillos had more votes in the 2012 general election than Booker and Lonegan had combined on Wednesday.  More people voted for Joe Kryillos in the 2012 U.S. Senate race than voted for Chris Christie in the 2009 gubernatorial race.

For Trenton Republicans hopeful about taking control of the State Senate, consider this; If the fact that Lonegan lost Senate President Steve Sweeney’s district by only 347 votes, .9%, means that Sweeney is more vulnerable to Niki Trunk’s campaign than previously thought, does that mean that Susan Adelizzi-Schmidt is a shoe-in to defeat Senator Jeff Van Drew in Cape May where Lonegan won by almost 19%?   Does the fact that Booker won Mercer and Middlesex Counties handedly mean there is no hope of picking up the Senate seats in the 14th and 18th districts?  None of the above.

Should Monmouth County Democrats conclude that they have a fighting chance on November 5, because Lonegan beat Booker here by only 9%. Let them think that.

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Save NJ jobs by saving our constitution

By Tom Bracken, Laurie Ehlbeck, John Holub and Stefanie Riehl

New Jersey’s voters face an important choice on Nov. 5. We can either make annual job losses a permanent part of our state’s constitution, or we can send the minimum-wage debate back to the state Legislature where it belongs.

For the sake of New Jersey’s economy, we hope our state’s voters will choose the second path and vote no on Public Question No. 2.
Public Question No. 2 may seem well-intentioned at first glance, but its placement of future annual increases in the minimum wage on a constitutional autopilot is the wrong policy at the wrong time.

On a constitutional level, this minimum-wage hike should not be placed in the state’s founding charter. Instead, it’s an issue that deserves good, old-fashioned back-and-forth and political compromise between the Legislature and Governor’s Office. In fact, both the governor and Legislature admit that they already support a minimum-wage hike.

The minimum-wage debate belongs in the Legislature, not the constitution. For this reason, both Republicans and Democrats — including those who otherwise support an increase in the minimum wage — have spoken out against this irresponsible and harmful proposal.

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Buono would raise sale taxes

Lost in the headlines of yesterday’s special election is the fact that State Senator Barbara Buono would not rule out raising New Jersey’s 7% sales tax, if elected governor, during her debate with Governor Chris Christie on Tuesday night.

Governor Christie noted that the Democrats, with Buono as the Senate Budget Chair, shut down New Jersey’s government in 2006 when Jon Corzine was governor, because they couldn’t agree how high to raise the sales tax.

Assembly Republican Budget Officer Declarn O’Scanlon issued the following statement regarding Buono’s  taxing vision for New Jersey:

“At a time when New Jersey is in the middle of an economic recovery, she has no concept of what a public policy disaster that proposal would be to creating jobs and maintaining our momentum. Increasing the sales tax is regressive and would further impact the most heavily taxed people in the country. It effectively sends the message to consumers to shop elsewhere and keeps New Jersey from being competitive with surrounding states. I am glad she no longer chairs the Senate Budget Committee. We are still trying to recover from the damage done to our economy.

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Long Branch Mayor Adam Schneider Endorses Republicans Beck, Angelini and Casagrande

Guv Chris Christie accepting Long Branch Mayor Adam Schneider’s endorsement. Photo by Art Gallagher.

Long Branch Mayor Adam Schneider, a Democrat, today endorsed the all female Republican team of legislators in New Jersey’s 11th district, Senator Jennifer Beck and Assemblywomen Mary Pat Angelini and Caroline Casagrande.

“I have a worked closely with our legislators on a variety of issues,” said Schneider in a statement issued by the Republican legislators, “They always have the best interests of Long Branch in mind and have gone out of their way to help our residents.  Senator Beck, Assemblywoman Angelini and Assemblywoman Casagrande manage to keep partisan politics out of the picture and focus on the issue at hand. I am proud to work with them and offer them my endorsement.”

In addition to endorsing the Republican legislators from his district, Schneider is one of over 50 Democratic elected officials who have endorsed Governor Chris Christie.

“Oh, that was nice of him,” said Red Bank Councilman Ed Zipprich, a Democratic candidate challenging Angelini and Casagrande, when informed of Schneider’s endorsement.

Monmouth County Democratric Chairman Vin Gopal was surprised that Schneider endorse all three Republican women representing the 11th.  “He endorsed all three of them?” Gopal asked twice, “No, I have no comment.”

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Lt. Governor Debate Tonight

The only debate between Lieutenant  Governor Kim Guadagno and her Democratic opponent, labor leader Milly Silva will take place this evening at 7PM.

News12 will broadcast and livestream the hour long debate.

Watch the debate live here.

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Too Many Empty Suits

By Matt Rooney, SaveJersey.com

If you watched last night’s final #njsen debate, Save Jerseyans, then you heard Cory Booker (D-Twitter) use the word “tea party” more often than his opponent’s name.

Booker is a lot of things but “stupid” isn’t one of them. He came to play this time after flubbing the first debate. and reading plenty of polls which suggest that both the Tea Party and the ongoing federal shutdown are losers for Steve Lonegan. His buddy (and occasional bully) Barack Obama shared a similar experience in 2012. Plenty of smart people think Booker carried the day (and probably the election along with it). And they might be right.

What stuck in my crawl was Booker’s dogged insistence that people like Steve Lonegan are the problem in Washington.

It’s a crock, folks.

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Lonegan to House Republicans: Wait For My Victory, Obama Will Fold

GOP nominee for U.S. Senate Steve Lonegan today urged Republicans in the House of Representatives not to give into President Barack Obama’s demands for re-opening the government and raising the federal debt ceiling, declaring, “When I win, Obama will fold.”

“Republicans need to hold firm because seven days from today when Bob Menendez escorts me down the Senate aisle for my swearing in, the message about what our party should do will be clear for all,” Lonegan maintained.

“I have come as far as I have in this campaign by ignoring the advice from all the pollsters and consultants who have told me to change what I think and change who I am,” Lonegan added. “New Jerseyans are looking for a leader who fights for working taxpayers, not a Hollywood wannabe like Cory Booker who will rubber stamp the President’s far-left wing agenda.”

Lonegan says his internal polling shows a neck-and-neck race in the U.S. Senate contest and that all the momentum is in his favor. “My victory in this election on Wednesday will send a message to Barack Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi that the American people want an end to Obamacare and the rest of the President’s radical agenda.”

The former three-term Bogota mayor called on Republicans to stop listening to the same consultants and pollsters who blew the 2012 election and who are telling the GOP to fold and instead stand firm for seven more days.

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What were they thinking?

Ben Dworkin, Director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics, introduces U.S. Senate candidate Steve Lonegan. September 24, 2013

I don’t think Steve Lonegan and Rick Shaftan are stupid.

I don’t think they believed their own bs over the years that a “true conservative” could win a statewide election in New Jersey, if only given a chance.

Surprisingly to many, Lonegan’s campaign since August was working.  He substantially narrowed the gap between himself and Cory Booker.  He unquestionably weakened the electorate’s perception of Booker.  Lonegan never moderated his message, but he significantly moderated his delivery and demeanor.  He was not a scary angry conservative.

The Lonegan I witnessed at Rider University’s Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics last month was not a flame thrower.  He was an honest and concerned adult sharing his wisdom with college students.

I never got to the point where I thought Lonegan would win next week.  I did think that if he got into single digits, he would be the front runner for a rematch with Booker in 2014.   I thought, if he kept doing what he was doing, in the style he was doing it, his best shot at beating Booker was in November of 2014.

I don’t think that anymore.  With tonight’s debate performance, combined with scheduled appearances with Sarah Palin and Mark Levin this weekend, I think Lonegan and Shaftan concluded they aren’t going to win, so they might as well have fun for the last week of Lonegan’s political career.

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Booker wins on style

Cory Booker came to the second and final Senatorial debate prepared to portray Steve Lonegan as a Tea Party extremist, and Lonegan cooperated.

Lonegan came prepared with facts and punchlines.  Booker turned nearly every question into an opportunity to portray himself as a compromiser who will go to Washington to get things done and Lonegan as an extremist.

Early on in this campaign, Lonegan acknowledged he “lacked a filter” between what he really thinks and what he says.  He seems to have developed a filter over the last several weeks, but he left it at home tonight.

Lonegan’s hardest punchlines are likely to be used against him over the the final week of the campaign.  “You might not be able to swim in that river, but its probably because of all the bodies in it from shooting victims” and “you’ll abort a baby in its 8th month of delivery,” will very likely be used relentlessly by the Booker campaign and they ramp up their Get Out The Vote machine in the coming week.

With more substantive answers, Lonegan probably won on debating points.  But debating points don’t win elections. Both candidates were on message and their message was the same…Steve Lonegan is an antagonistic extremist.  At least he was tonight.

If the Lonegan/Shaftan strategy was to gin up their base, I’m sure it worked.  But it probably turned off moderate voters who were leaning towards coming out for Lonegan.  Booker’s money will make sure Lonegan rhetoric gins up his base in the coming week.

Sarah Palin and Mark Levin are coming to New Jersey to campaign for Lonegan at a Tea Party event in New Egypt on Saturday.  If you’re willing to bet on that as a winning strategy for a New Jersey election, you’re probably also willing to bet that the 0-5 Giants will have home field advantage at the Super Bowl in February.

If I were betting on the next Wednesday’s election, I’d take Booker and give 18 points.

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