Monmouth Poll is bad news for Kyrillos
Last week Kyrillos for U.S. Senate campaign manager Chapin Fay said the campaign planned to win every county that Chris Christie won in 2009, plus Bergen County, which Christie narrowly lost.
Kyrillos will need to comeback stronger than Bucky Dent’s 1978 Yankees in order for that to happen, if the Monmouth University-Gannett poll released this morning in on the mark. U.S. Senator Bob Menendez has widened his lead over Kyrillos from 9 points in July to 15 points today.
“I’m the moderate in this race,” Kyrillos declared to just under 2000 Bergen County Republican and Independent voters on a tele-town hall last week. While his message seemed to resonate with participants on the call who expressed their concerns for jobs, the skyrocketing national debt and gridlock in Washington, Kyillos’s message that he is ” a different kind of Republican,” as he is called in one of his TV ads, does not seem to be landing with Independents throughout the state who now favor Menendez 42% to 26%. In a July Monmouth poll, Kyrillos and Menendez were tied among Independents at 32% each.
President Obama’s coattails seem to be the determining factor in the U.S. Senate race. Obama was always expected to win New Jersey, but the Kyrillos camp believed that if Obama’s margin of victory was less than 10%, that Menendez could be beaten. Obama is widened his lead in New Jersey from 8 points in July to 15 points today, according to the poll.
More from my site
FDU Poll: Menendez leading Kyrillos 45%-33%, but Kyrillos has room to define himself
Kyrillos Stays Positive With Third TV Ad
Who won the U.S. Senatorial debate?
NY Times: Kyrillos has “a plausable path to upset” Mendenez
U.S. Chamber of Commerce Endorses Kyrillos for Senate
Senator Joe Kyrillos’ Response to Senator Bob Menendez’s Campaign Kick-off
Menendez complains about constitutional amendment to make judges pay their fair share
Internal Poll has Kyrillos within 4 points of Menendez
Don’t cry for me Bob Menendez
Menendez Out Raises Kyrillos in Second Quarter Money Race
Not much to add to Art’s piece and probably stating the obvious, but in a Presidential election year with the R Presidential candidate not being competitive in NJ, its a very tall order for an R to win a Senate seat in NJ.
Its too late now, but if you look at Mass (a very blue state where Romeny is behind by a lot more than he is in NJ) you do have an R incumbent (Scott Brown) basically even with his challanger. Brown has split from his party on several occasions and doesn’t seem to want to have anything to do with Romney. That would probably have been the model for Kryillos to try to follow in NJ…to win over indpendent and moderate voters….(and I know he has tried with his “different kind of Republican ads” but that does not seem to be enough.)
Have to agree with the above assessment regarding Kyrillos’ chances in New Jersey. His assault on public workers unions, and failure to say anything about government corruption in his own county of Monmouth, really shows who the real Kyrillos is. I just love his television ad that says there should be no finger pointing. Well Joe, when you see something bad, sometimes you have to point it out and say something. Like the old adage, when you see something, you say something.
It would be interesting to see if the red county of Monmouth goes for Kyrillos. I see he is making a big play for women voters.
Isn’t Scott Brown the incumbent running against a challenger who was never elected to a statewide office? Yeah the situations are similar–Not. You are clearly a Republican in name only because the only good Republican to you is a democrat.
In Massachusetts, Did Elizabeth Warren Kill Someone With Cancer?
http://bostonherald.com/news/politics/view.bg?articleid=1061162883&position=0
I mean, using the Democrats own model, when they say Romney murdered someone, turnabout should be fair play.
But in truth, Warren did not kill someone. However, she sure was trying to help a company stop paying benefits.
WILL THE LIB MEDIA GO AFTER HER?
If course not. It’s just more hypocrisy from the left. So, let’s see how the resident libs try to triangulate this and run from it.
I really don’t get Republicans in this State that continue to call themselves Conservatives in the Primary to get elected; then spend all their time talking about how they aren’t Conservative or “extreme” and how they are a “different kind of Republican”, an Independent thinker, etc. during the General Election campaign, instead of running against their Democrat opponent.
And that’s what gets a poll once a 9 point deficit to now 15 points down.
While Massachusettes is not exactly the same situation as NJ (R incumbent in MA./ R challanger in NJ) it certainly does provide food for thought as to how Sen. Brown is running aprox even against a strong D challanger when the lattest polls show Obama now ahead of Romney by an incredible margin of almost 2-1 (64-32) in the state.
Moral of the story is that there are an aweful lot of people in MA. who are going to vote for Obama and Brown. For Kyrillos to have stood a chance in NJ, he would have to have done in NJ what Brown did in MA (get a significant chunk of Obama voters to vote for him.)
This One Is One POS…
He lies about Romney not paying taxes, now he is so desperate that he goes on on a man of his own faith!
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/25/reid-romney-not-face-mormonism/
Just when you think Reid reaches bottom, he starts digging himself into a deeper hole.
Are we sure Biden & Reid didn’t come from the same gene pool, or is one just trying to out embarrass the other?
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/25/voter-watchdog-group-claims-to-have-uncovered-absentee-ballot-fraud-in-florida/
“This is further evidence of just how susceptible our election system is to voter fraud,” the group’s president, Catherine Engelbrecht, said in a statement.
VOTER ID’S PROTECT THE SYSTEM FROM FRAUD…
Right now, there is no integrity to the system
I’d say Anna Little is going to lose by 20 or more points. Thankfully, after that; her political career should be over.
After election day, it will be time to dismantle the BSTP and create a real tea party with responsible leadership. Hopefully someone will grab that bull by the horns and show Babs the door.
Why is Joe K not attacking Menendez’s horrible record?
This is crazy. Menendez attacking Joe and Joe K running lame milk toast commercials.
If you want to beat an incumbent you have to give the people a reason to fire them, Joe.
Are you laying down on purpose?
Joe K actually doing worse in the polls than Romney. Hard to believe.
Wimpy…I’m sorry if a kid named Bobbie used to kick the crap out of you every day and now you sound like a wimp but I swear it wasn’t me!!!
If you actually read the article you posted the link to, you might understand that it was talking about 30 people who may have used absentee ballots to vote in two states. That is far different than same day voter fraud impersonation that Republican Legislatures and Govenrors claim exists even though some of them where unable to point to a single instance of voter fraud taking place in their states. As for these independent groups claiming fraud, note that in North Carolina where one groups said there were 30,000 dead people still on voter roles (which may or not be true)…the total number of cases where one of those dead peoples identities were used to vote would be a grand total of zero.
Speaking absentee ballot fraud which is a type of voter fraud that actually does exist, the total number of bills passed by those same Republican state legislatures and Governors to deal with absentee ballot voter fraud would also be a grand total of zero. Any chance that could be because a much higher percentage of absentee ballots are from R’s??
How Do FACTS Sound Wimpish?
It’s You, Borrowing Alinski Rule #11 That Makes You The One Trying To “Kick The Crap” Out Of Someone.
Geeeeez, Look In The Mirror, Will Ya?
But, Getting Back To The Meat Of The Story.
If Just ONE Person Votes Illegally, The System Is Not Secure. And Those Were Just The Ones That Were Found. Who Really Knows How Many People Vote Illegally.
The Truth Is That You DON’T Know And In The Case Of Close Elections, Vote Security Matters. There Are Local Elections Won By A Matter Of A Handful Of Votes.
If Those Elections Are Skewed By Those Kinds Of Votes, The Election Itself Is Flawed.
Get Out The Vote Efforts Are So Sophisticated Today With Political Operatives Knowing How Many Of Each Party Are In The Geographic Region, What Party They Are And How Often They Vote. Using Historical Models (I Know, I Have Done This Part Of GOTV Efforts) It Is Easy To Figure Out How Many Votes Are Needed To Win.
DON’T EVER Tell Me Ballot Boxes Have Never Been Stuffed.
Maybe Voter Fraud Happens On A Grand Scale, Maybe Not…
But Honest & Legal Voters DESERVE To Know The Election Is Secure.
We’ve Already Shown You Just How Many Things REQUIRE Id, Especially Photo ID:
http://redbus2us.com/typical-places-that-ask-your-picture-id-in-us-why-not-to-use-passport/
And These Are Juicy
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/john-bates/2012/06/06/first-lady-requires-photo-id-her-book-signings-voter-id-law-hating-media
http://www.inquisitr.com/321278/democratic-national-convention-requires-photo-id/
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/naacp-requires-two-forms-of-id-from-media-to-see-eric-holder-say-voter-id-laws-are-racist/
What The Frack Is Wrong With Requiring That Kind Of ID For The Most Important Thing That We Do, Something That Could Prevent Tyranny?
ANY Candidate, Democrat Or Republican Might Be Predisposed To “Fixing An Election,” And Small Fixed Local Elections Over Time Could Easily Have The Tendency To Empower People To Do Things On A Grander Scale.
It’s About Drawing A Line In The Sand.
It’s Like Guns. Legal Gun Owners Are Not Criminals. It’s Criminals Who Obtain Illegal Guns, And When It’s A VOTE That A “Criminal Obtains,” The Results Are STILL Illegal.
Instead, You Nuts On The Left Want To Cry Racism.
Whoa, the Commish is back!
Hope all is well Mike, haven’t seen you around in a long while and your blog went AWOL/can’t get an email through to you. Anyhow, good to see you around. I won’t share my name but I’m genuinely happy to see your name and honest perspective again.
The list of Republican losers who tried to claim they are “moderate” is long. That’s no way to distinguish yourself. That turns off your base and the other side doesn’t care. Who is advising poor Joe?
If he juiced up his campaign with claims of Conservatism he would have a shot.
Someone explain to me: Why in Jersey can we elect a Governor state-wide, but can’t do it for US Senate in decades?
Tom, you’ve said it before and the word is Smashmouth. NJ loves Christie, not because he’s done a good job by conservative Republican standards, but because he really represents the fat, trash talkin’ tough guy that is the NJ stereotype. We love him because he’s the first guy we can relate to since big Obama supporter Bill Clinton was getting BJs in the office, the stereotype of many Wall St types…. represent the people, smashmouth style. JoeKs image in those ads is just another to be disrespected politician.
[…] Cross-Posted from MoreMonmouthMusings.com (9/25/12) […]
It doesn’t take a witch to know that Joe K. would need some serious magic to reverse a 36 year trend toward electing NJ Democrats to the US Senate. It would take a gargantuan spending campaign – $50M to bend back the force of history. $6M just won’t do it.
Nobody wants any kind of voter fraud but the fact is that the new voter id laws that were passed (for a problem that many legislatures could not find one single example of in their states) affect an estimated 20 million people that do not have the new required forms of id and many of those people (who have been voting leaglly all of their lives including veterans) do not have the means to obtain them. Note that several GOP officails including the former state chaiman in Florida and the leader of the legislatrue in PA. have pubicly said what the real reason is that these laws were passed.
On people not having the means to obtain voter id’s.
It’s just another excuse to kick the can down the road. Pure horse manure. As I understand it, they are free, are they note?
Buses go everywhere.
And even if there is a nominal charge (shouldn’t be), I wonder how many of these people have cable tv and two tv’s while on welfare. I wonder how many of them have the requisite id’s for all of the examples we have shown you.
If you don’t want voter fraud Bobbie Boy, support voter id’s. It’s as simple as that.
After all, it’s the 21st century, not the dark ages
You mean these 20 million people never drink alcohol, smoke a cigarette or need cold medicine?
In 2012, if you don’t want to make the effort to get that free ID I think you really don’t even want to vote.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/27/florida-officials-find-18-non-citizens-on-voter-rolls-after-extensive-search/?test=latestnews
“I have not talked to one Floridian who says I want my vote diluted by somebody who has never had a right to vote in my state,” Scott said
LET’S SEE NOW, with this find and the other 38 or so; that’s nearly half of Bush’s margin against Gore.
NOW do you see the potential impact of illegal voters? It don’t take a lot to screw things up.
Guess what…there is voter fraud in Florida. Just not the same day voter fraud the the new id’s suposed to combat. Woops forgot to mention is that it is Republicans committing the fraud. Company hired to register voters is shredding registration forms if the eperson indicates they want to register as a D.
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/27/14126789-rnc-cuts-ties-with-firm-over-voter-fraud-allegations?chromedomain=nbcpolitics&lite
Chris…some people who are elderly and have been voting all of their lives including veterans are not phsically able to go down to the bus stop and get a bus over to the motor vehicle station especially if they live in a rural area. Many do not have the documentation that is not required for a govt issued photo id.
It Was Not The Republican Party That Was Committing The Fraud….
It Was A Company, And Guess What…
The Republican National Committee FIRED The Company, So Republicans Are Not Supporting Voter Fraud.
THEY FIRED THE COMPANY WHEN IT WAS FOUND OUT.
Why Didn’t You Tell The Whole Story?
Simply Because You Want To Paint Republicans In A Bad Light So That You Can Hide The Fraud In The Democrat Party.
You Have Learned Well From The Obummbler, Create A Canard So That You Can Hide Something Else.
And As To People Not Having Access To The Bus Stop, Do They Not Have Relatives Or Friends Who Could Help Them Obtain The Proper Ids???
Excuses, Excuses For Not Insuring The Integrity Of The System. That’s All Libs Can Offer.
What did the Democrats do after ACORN’s voter registration fraud. They didn’t fire them, they defended them, still use them under what ever new name the operate under.
http://www.humanevents.com/2009/06/19/democrats-continue-to-protect-acorn/
Get your head out of the sand, will you?