Explainer: How Redistricting Can Shape Elections — and What Happens When It Does

Explainer: How Redistricting Can Shape Elections — and What Happens When It Does (via NJSpotlight)

What’s responsible for the extreme divide between Republicans and Democrats in Congress, and to a lesser extent, in Trenton? Some political observers believe part of the problem is the way we draw legislative and congressional districts. These days…

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WISNIEWSKI:NEW LEGISLATIVE MAP WILL WITHSTAND TEA PARTY COURT CHALLENGE

(TRENTON) — Assemblyman John Wisniewski, the Democratic Co-Chair of the Legislative Apportionment Commission, issued the following statement on the Tea Party’s court challenge to the recently approved redistricting map:

     “We are extremely confident in the constitutionality of the recently adopted map, which underwent a through review by not only our attorneys, but former Attorney General John Farmer, who served as counsel to the 11th member of the commission.

     “This is a map that not only met traditional redistricting criteria but improved upon compactness, competitiveness and one-person, one-vote standards and will ultimately be found constitutional,” said Wisniewski (D-Middlesex). 

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The Democratic Map Will Be Approved Today

By Art Gallagher

Multiple news outlets are reporting that Professor Alan Rosenthal, the 11th member of the Apportionment Commission will cast his vote for the Democratic map when the commission has its final meeting in Trenton at noon today.

Assemblyman Jay Webber, the Republican co-chair of the commission told Poltickernj that his team was disappointed and believed they submitted a better map.  Webber said the new map will be an improvement from the current map.

Democratic co-chair Assemblyman John Wisiewski, also the Democratic State Chairman, told Politickernj that his side won by submitting a map the more closely complied with the standards Rosenthallaid out when he joined the commission a month ago.  The Democratic map minimizes incumbency disruption and has a smaller population deviation among districts than the Republican map does.

Both sides expect that the Democrats will retain control of the legislature with the new map, but by smaller margins than their current representation.

MMM will report on the impact the new map will have on Monmouth County districts this afternoon after the map is released.

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Incumbent battles are plentiful under BTPG’s “The People’s Map”

Middletown, NJ –Several articles have come out recently displaying the hysterics surrounding the possibility of a handful of legislators who may lose their jobs as a result of the Apportionment Commission’s final map. Meanwhile, an analysis of “The People’s Map” illustrates nicely how genuine competition between and among parties and incumbents can be easily achieved by simply drawing district lines according to the Constitution.

Below are some of the intra-party battles created as a result of the non-gerrymandered map produced by the Bayshore Tea Party Group:

• ·         District 4: Sen. Steve Sweeney (D) v. Sen. Fred Madden (D)
• ·         District 13: Sen. Joe Kyrillos (R) v. Sen. Jenifer Beck (R)
• ·         District 21: Sen. Barbara Buono (D) v. Sen. Bob Smith (D)
• ·         District 27: Sen. Anthony R. Bucco (R) v. Sen. Joseph Pennacchio (R)
• ·         District 31: Sen. Brian Stack (D) v. Sen. Nicholas Sacco (D)
• ·         District 9: Asm. Ronald Dancer v. Asw. Diane Gove v. Asm. Brian Rumpf

There are 11 additional districts in which incumbents of the same party would be pitted against one another. This is what representative democracy should look like.

While politicians holed up in lavish accommodations at one of New Brunswick’s finest hotels wheel and deal for their own personal benefit, voters are left with the scraps from a rancid political meal. “The People’s Map” changes that dynamic and forces long-term incumbents, many of whom have benefited for a decade from our previously Gerrymandered districts, to defend their records with their constituents and actually campaign for reelection.

It is a uniquely American ideal that no man should be entitled to the benefit of another’s labor. This ideal is no more applicable than in the world of electoral politics.

Upon discovering the information, primary map-maker and Bayshore Tea Party Group Redistricting Committee Chairman Sean Spinello stated:

“One thing that struck me with all the attempts at manipulating the matchups and wanting easy victories was that it sounded like old time boxing promoters…except with less integrity.”

The Bayshore Tea Party Group was heartened recently by NJ Apportionment Commission Co-Chairman and Assemblyman John Wisniewski’s statement citing the importance of adhering to the NJ Constitution with regard to the legislative map drawing, as reported in The Star-Ledger on March 28.

As per Chairman Wisniewski’s admonition, we expect that the Commission will issue a map fully compliant with law and the New Jersey Constitution, such as “The People’s Map.”

 
Please visit our website at www.bayshoreteaparty.org for information on how you can become involved with the effort to restore American Exceptionalism and fix our broken government. [email protected] or call 732-842-6652 for more information.

The Bayshore Tea Party Group Headquarters is located at 275 Rt. 35N in Middleotwn,NJ. Please contact

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Dem Map Would Pit Kean Against Singer

By Art Gallagher

Senator Sean Kean could have a bigger problem than Dan Jacobson in his quest for renomination to the State Senate.

According to a report on Politickernj the proposed legislative map favored by the Democrats on the redistricting commission puts Kean of Wall Township in the same district as Senator Robert Singer of Lakewood.

Without knowing the composition of the entire proposed district assessing each senator’s prospects in a head to head primary would be purely speculative.  However Singer would start with a decided advantage based upon the size of the two senators’ home towns.  Lakewood has 12,636 registered Republicans. 3813 Lakewood Republicans voted in the 2009 primary and 873 voted in the 2007 primary.  Wall has 6,171 Republicans. 2507 voted in the 2009 primary, 457 in 2007.

Neither Kean nor Singer are favorites of Governor Christie.  Kean was uninvited from Christie’s Monmouth County press conference after the December blizzard.  Until recently, Singer was a “double dipper,” serving both in the Senate and on the Lakewood Township Committee.  

As the horse trading escalates in New Brunswick through Sunday, trading Kean or Singer for a more competive district elsewhere in the state, perhaps moving Atlantic City into an Ocean County dominated district, thereby putting Senator Jim Whelan’s Democratic seat at risk could be considered a good trade by the Christie loyalists on the commission.

Politickernj and The Star Ledger have both reported that the final map will be adopted on Sunday at noon.

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Marathon Demonstration For “The People’s Map”

Bayshore Tea Party Group to Lead Demonstration to End Partisan Gerrymandering

Together with groups and voters from around the State, BTPG will gather in New Brunswick

http://www.politickernj.com/46261/dems-head-behind-closed-doors-rosenthal-and-map

Members of the Bayshore Tea Party Group and other concerned citizens will hold a constant demonstration from tonight at 7PM until the Commission votes on the map that will bind New Jersey for the next 10 years.
 
All groups and individuals concerned with the odious process of Gerrymandering and with the intentional dilution of their vote on the altar of protecting incumbent politicians are invited and encouraged to attend.

It’s time the voters of New Jersey stood up and demanded an end to partisan Gerrymandering. That time is now.

Please visit our website at www.bayshoreteaparty.org for information on how you can become involved with the effort to restore American Exceptionalism and fix our broken government. 

The Bayshore Tea Party Group Headquarters is located at 275 Rt. 35N in Middletown, NJ. Please contact [email protected] or call 732-842-6652 for more information. 

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Stop The Maneuvering And Adopt The Constitutional Map

By Art Gallagher

The stakes are apparently very high as the Legislative Reapportionment Commission works almost around the clock this week to settle on a map that could determine the partisan control of the New Jersey State Legislature for the next 10 years.

The 5 Democrats and 5 Republicans on the commission are working to convince the 11th “Independent” member or the commission, Dr. Alan Rosenthal, PhD of Rutgers to choose their proposed map.  Rosenthal is said to be trying to either forge a compromise map or will choose one.  Politickernj is reporting that Rosenthal is using the Democratic map as his foundation.

But who are the stakes high for?

Ultimately the stakes are high for all New Jersey residents, as what is decided this week will inevitably impact the quality of all of our lives  over the next decade. But are most New Jersey residents even paying attention?

Are the commissioners in New Brunswick working so hard this week for the good of the people of the State, or are they fighting for power, control and the money that comes along with it.   Certainly there are commissioners that have pure motives.  I’d like to think that they are Republicans.  Surely my Democratic readers hope the same of their side.

The Bayshore Tea Party Group has proposed a map that meets all the requirements set out in the Constitution.  Turns out that, as a side benefit that proposed map also increases the competitiveness of the districts, and likely would increase minority representation, according to Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray’s analysis of the map.

So why are they working so hard in New Brunswick?  Why can’t both sides and Rosenthal just embrace the BTPG’s Constitutional “People’s Map?”

It turns out that there are “principles” not found in the State or U.S Constitutions driving the efforts.  Perhaps I should say principals rather than principles.  The principle principals are incumbents.  The districts belong to them.  The office’s they hold are theirs, not the people’s.  That’s how it is in practice.

Even Rosenthal buys into incumbent protection.  He puts it in noble sounding academic jargon, espousing the “continuity of representation” and the value of crafting a map that is “minimally disruptive.”

Continuous for who?  Minimally disruptive to who?   Rosenthal’s rhetoric and scholarly writings make it sound as if “continuity of representation” and “minimal disruption” are of value to the electorate.  But are they?

It seems to me that most people are oblivious to what legislative districts they live in and relatively few know who their representatives are.

I don’t have empiracle data to back that hunch up, so I called Patrick Murray.  He said that he is unaware of recent polling data of residents awareness of their districts or their legislators, but that he shares my hunch.

So I took to the streets. Main Street in Belford actually, to find some data. This is what I found:

Watch the video.  Some of it is pretty funny.  While not as scientific as one of Murray’s polls, I doubt the results would change with a larger statistical sample and with interviews throughout the state.  Decades of miserably low turnout in legislative elections are statistically significant enough to conclude that most people are not paying attention to the legislature, and don’t know who their legislators are.

Maybe a Constitutional, non-gerrymandered map would change that.  Maybe people would pay attention and vote if their vote mattered.

Sure, I feel for my friends in the legislature who would be maximally disrupted by the adoption of the BTPG’s map.  But the offices they hold and the districts they represent don’t belong to them.

There won’t be real change in Trenton, the city won’t be turned upside down, unless there is a legislative map adopted that does not take into account the residency of incumbents.

The Republicans on the commission should embrace the BTPG’s map and invite Rosenthal to join them.

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Bayshore Tea Party Group Releases Revised Legislative District Map

Middletown, NJ – The Bayshore Tea Party Group issued a revised version of “The People’s Map” to the Apportionment Commission. The changes are as follows:

· Moves Egg Harbor Township, Weymouth and Estell Manor from District 2 to District 1;
· Moves Atlantic City, Brigantine and Absecon from District 1 to District 2;
· Makes cosmetic corrections to several inadvertently miscolored municipalities that do not affect the population outcomes of any other District.
In response to inquiries received following the release of “The People’s Map”, the Bayshore Tea Party Group Redistricting Committee would like to clarify some questions the public may have with the creation of our map:

 
“The People’s Map” was created entirely by hand and without the assistance of any computer program, such as the program in use by the Apportionment Commission and political parties;
“The People’s Map” was drawn using public census data obtained via the internet, pencils and a calculator;
No funding or other outside support from any person or organization was provided for the creation of “The People’s Map”. The aforementioned pencils, paper and calculators were provided by the Bayshore Tea Party Group, which is funded entirely through the generous donations of our members and the public.

The Bayshore Tea Party Group would like to acknowledge and thank Monmouth University’s Patrick Murray for the notes he provided upon his review of our map.

BTPG would also like to publicly acknowledge Jim Meyer of Gateway Press in Atlantic Highlands, NJ for his hard work in preparing “The People’s Map.”
Please visit our website at www.bayshoreteaparty.org for information on how you can become involved with the effort to restore American Exceptionalism and fix our broken government.

The Bayshore Tea Party Group Headquarters is located at 275 Rt. 35N in Fairview, NJ. Please contact [email protected] or call 732-804-3733 for more information.

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Christie Participating In Map Making Negotiations

By Art Gallagher

Governor Chris Christie has spent the day with Republican members of the of the Redistricting Commission, according to a report published on Politickernj.

The commission, 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans and 11th member Dr. Alan Rosenthan of Rutgers have been holed upped at the Heldrich Hotel in News Brunswick today.  Democrats and Republicans have been meeting with Rosenthal separately throughout the day, making their respective cases for the new legislative map’s configuration.

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Murray: Dems will get their map

By Art Gallagher

New Jersey will have a legislature controlled by the Democratic party for another ten years, according to Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.

In a column posted on Politickernj and on his own blog Murray dissects the tea leaves of that Alan Rosenthal, the tie breaking 11th member of redistricting commission, revealed in his public statements about the standards that will be used to determine the new legislative map.  Murray concludes that the Rosenthal approved map will result in 22 “safe” Democratic districts and 18 “safe” Republican districts.

Murray says that Rosenthal values “continuity of representation” ….that incumbents should be drawn into districts where the majority of voters are already represented by them…over “competitiveness”  and that as a result the new map will have a “deminis” impact on the status quo.

Murray also implied that the Democrats have outmaneuvered the Republican in there redistricting preparation. He says Democrats organized themselves to negotiate with the 11th members of the commission whereas the Republicans organized themselves to challenge the new map in court, where they will likely lose.

Murray’s margin of error is +/- 100% of Rosenthal’s consistency with his historical body of work.

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