Trump widens lead in CNN poll as Christie ties for 10th

WASHINGTON — Businessman Donald Trump widened his lead over his competitors as almost one-third of Republican voters said they wanted him as their 2016 presidential nominee, according to a poll released Thursday. Trump received 32 percent in the CNN/ORC International survey, with retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson in second with 19 percent. The poll, covering the period… Read the rest of this entry »

• Tweet

More Bad Polling News For Christie

Graphic by Robert Hazelrigg, RobertHazelrigg.com

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would both take New Hamsphire’s 4 electoral votes over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton if the presidential election were today, according to Dartmouth University’s eighth annual State of the State Poll.

Walker beats Clinton 38.7 % – 34.8%.  Bush beats Clinton 36.9 – 34.14%.

Clinton would beat Governor Chris Christie 36.5% – 34.4%.

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.2%, so Walker, Bush, Christie, and all other Republicans polled except Ted Cruz are virtually tied with Clinton. Clinton beat Cruz by by more than ten points.  In all the head to head match-ups against Clinton, 30% of the voters are undecided.  This poll is meaningless and I’m only writing about it because I haven’t gotten a press release from the Monmouth County Prosecutor’s Office today and don’t have a click baiting crime story to post.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Tweet

Good News, Bad News Polls For Christie

Two polls release this morning indicate that the news avalanche over “Bridgegate;” the George Washington Bridge lane closures and Hoboken Mayor Dawn Zimmer’s allegations that Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno and other Christie Administration officials said that Sandy relief was contingent upon a development approval have taken a heavy toll on the public’s opinion of Governor Chris Christie.

A Wall Street Journal/NBCNews national poll points to a sharp reversal of American’s opinion of New Jersey’s Governor.  29% view Christie unfavorably while 22% view him favorably.  In an October 2013 poll, 33% view the governor favorably, while only 17% viewed him unfavorably.

In New Jersey, Christie still has positive numbers, but the stratospheric approval numbers he has enjoyed since Superstorm Sandy crushed the Garden State have evaporated in the heat of Bridgegate.

The Farleigh Dickson University Public Mind Poll released this morning says that Christie’s job approval rating is below 50% for the first time since May of 2011.  48% of New Jersey registered voters approve of the job he is doing, while 39% do not.   53% of FDU’s respondents think Christie probably knew about the GWB lane closures before they happened.

Any ‘normal politician’ would be very happy with the kind of numbers that FDU put out Christie today.  Given the beating he’s been taking in the media, that the voters who know Christie best still approve of him by +9 points, even though they think he probably lied when he said he knew nothing of the GWB lane closures before they happened, the FDU numbers are very positive.

New Jerseyans and the rest of the country are paying close attention to the Christie controversies. 85% of NJ voters told FDU they were watching closely.  79% of Americans are aware of the story, according to the WSJ/NBC poll.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Tweet

Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton neck-and neck in mock 2016 race, new polls show

Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton neck-andneck in mock 2016 race, new polls show (via NJ.com)

TRENTON — A pair of new nationwide polls show Gov. Chris Christie and Hillary Clinton neck-and-neck in a hypothetical 2016 presidential matchup. Fresh off a landslide re-election victory, the Republican governor leads the former Secretary of State…

Read the rest of this entry »

• Tweet

Buyer’s Remorse May Swing the Election

“I voted for Obama in 2008, but I’m not going to vote for him this time.”

By Adam Geller

We’ve all heard someone utter this phrase, or something close to it by now.   Whether we are in the business of politics, analyzing polls and focus groups, or having a more casual conversation about the political scene, this is a statement that seems to come up more often as we draw closer to Election Day 2012.

Now, to be fair, there are plenty of folks who are saying, “I voted for Obama in ’08, and I will vote for him again in ’12.”   As long as we are being fair, let us also acknowledge the fact that we have yet to hear anyone state that they voted for McCain last time, but this time they will vote for Obama.

So, the pressing question is the extent to which previous Obama voters will, in fact change their mind.   How many mind-changers are needed to make a difference, and swing the election away from Obama? 

The answer is: not that many.

Rather than add to the body of analysis that already exists on a state-by-state basis, I want to simply concentrate on the popular vote.   In sticking with an analysis of the popular vote, I make every assumption that much of the movement that I describe herein would take place in the battleground states with which we are all familiar.

Let’s start with a reasonable, conservative (small c) theory: let’s assume that no more than one-out-of-ten 2008 Obama voters actually do, in fact, change their minds and this time vote for the Republican.   Now, some may say that the actual number may be higher than that, but for now, let’s stick with a smaller safer assumption.   Let’s also assume, for now, that turnout matches 2008 turnout.

First, let’s go back and look at the actual popular vote results.   Recall that in 2008, the vote tally was:

Read the rest of this entry »

• Tweet