Cook Report: NJ Senate Race Is Toss Up

U.S. Senate candidate Bob Hugin, Kathy Hugin and Monmouth Freeholder candidates Sue Kiley and Gerry Scharfenberger in Red Bank this week

New Jersey could elect a Republican to the United State Senate on November 6 for the first time since Diff’rent Strokes debuted on NBC-TV.

The Cook Political Report this morning moved its rating of the campaign between Senator Bob Menendez and GOP nominee Bob Hugin from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up.”

Read the rest of this entry »

• Tweet

What can we learn from the Booker-Lonegan contest?

For those who try to read political tea leaves, the only lesson to be taken from the results of the Special Election this week is that apples and oranges make fruit salad.

For conservatives and Tea Partiers enthused that Steve Lonegan lost to Cory Booker by a significantly lower margin than Joe Kyrillos lost to Bob Menendez last year, consider this; Kyrillos had more votes in the 2012 general election than Booker and Lonegan had combined on Wednesday.  More people voted for Joe Kryillos in the 2012 U.S. Senate race than voted for Chris Christie in the 2009 gubernatorial race.

For Trenton Republicans hopeful about taking control of the State Senate, consider this; If the fact that Lonegan lost Senate President Steve Sweeney’s district by only 347 votes, .9%, means that Sweeney is more vulnerable to Niki Trunk’s campaign than previously thought, does that mean that Susan Adelizzi-Schmidt is a shoe-in to defeat Senator Jeff Van Drew in Cape May where Lonegan won by almost 19%?   Does the fact that Booker won Mercer and Middlesex Counties handedly mean there is no hope of picking up the Senate seats in the 14th and 18th districts?  None of the above.

Should Monmouth County Democrats conclude that they have a fighting chance on November 5, because Lonegan beat Booker here by only 9%. Let them think that.

• Tweet

Three things that have to happen for Steve Lonegan to walk away with a win

Three things that have to happen for Steve Lonegan to walk away with a win (via NJ.com)

Polls in today’s U.S. Senate special election put Republican Steve Lonegan somewhere between 10 and 14 points behind Democrat Cory Booker as voters head out to cast their ballots. Booker, though his campaign has not been without its foibles, has succeeded…

Read the rest of this entry »

• Tweet

Long Morning Lines in GOP Areas

By Matt Rooney, SaveJersey.com

Don’t get too excited, Save Jerseyans.

It’s very, very early. The polls are open until 8:00 p.m. tonight. Did I mention it’s early?

That being said, I’ve heard anecdotal but consistent turnout reports this morning that bode well for a strong Lonegan performance in today’s #njsen special election.

Example? More than one person has told me about voting lines wrapping out-the-door in Oakland, New Jersey. The Bergen County community of just under 13,000 is home to approximately 1,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats and voted 55.8% for John McCain in 2008.

PolitickerNJ is reporting robust Booker turnout in Essex County but MoreMonmouthMusings cites a source who says it’s unusually quiet in Newark’s East Ward…

We’ve received similar reports from some other Republican-leaning towns around the state such as the affluent bedroom community of Moorestown in Burlington County.

Read the rest of this entry>

• Tweet

Conflicting voter turnout reports out of Newark

PolitickerNJ is reporting that voters are coming out strong for Cory Booker in Newark’s North Ward, South Orange and Montclair.

However, a Newark resident who asked not to be named told MMM this morning that he was only the 9th voter in Newark’s East Ward at about 11:30 AM.

“The Cory Booker campaign is lackluster,” the Newark resident said, “no sound trucks, no signs, no door knockers, nothing. It’s weird.”

While all Independent polls tracking the Special Senate election have qualified their reports with the caveat that turnout for an election on the third Wednesday in October is unpredictable, most pollsters tracking have weighted their results with the assumption that urban turnout for Booker would be consistent with the vote that turned out for President Obama last November.

If the early turnout in Newark’s East Ward is indicative of urban turnout throughout the state, Steve Lonegan could be a U.S. Senator tomorrow.

• Tweet

Lonegan, in Middletown, Tangles With Pix11 Anchor

• Tweet

Second man dies in hospital overnight from Newark shooting

Second man dies in hospital overnight from Newark shooting (via NJ.com)

Google Maps NEWARK — The second victim of a shooting in the South Ward died overnight from his wounds, the Essex County Prosecutor’s Office said. Rajohn McClain, 22, died at University Hospital at 3:38 a.m., said Thomas Fennelly, the county’s…

Read the rest of this entry »

• Tweet

Let me be clear, vote on Wednesday, vote on Wednesday, vote on Wednesday

Republicans and moderate-right Independents planning to sit out tomorrow’s election should view this video twice.

• Tweet

What can we learn from Booker-Lonegan primaries?

What can we learn from Booker-Lonegan primaries? (via NJ.com)

By Frederick Kaimann/The Star-Ledger With the general election for the open U.S. Senate seat tomorrow, what clues do Cory Booker and Steve Lonegan’s primary wins reveal for the Wednesday’s outcome? Both won their primaries handily. Lonegan, the former…

Read the rest of this entry »

• Tweet

Monmouth Poll: Booker’s Lead Shrinks To 10%

It’s two days before New Jersey elects a U.S. Senator to replace the late Frank Lautenberg in Washington and Newark Mayor Cory Booker’s lead over former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan has shrunk to 10%, according to a poll released by Monmouth University this morning.  Democrat Booker led Republican Lonegan by 13% two weeks ago and by 26% in August.

Polling Director Patrick Murray surveyed 1,393 likely voters who have voted in at least two of the last four general elections between Thursday and Saturday of last week.   The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.6%.

The poll results are weighted with the assumptions that Democrats will be 38% of the turnout, Independents 34% and Republicans 28%. Monmouth expects that women will be 52% of the turnout.  The expected racial demographic of voters is 75% White, 12% Black, 8% Hispanic and 5% Asian/Other.

Democrats favor Booker by a margin of 90%-6%.  Independents favor Lonegan, 48%-43% with 6% undecided.  Republicans favor Lonegan 86%-11%.

55% of respondents said that Booker’s views on issues are generally in line with most of New Jerseyans.  30% said Booker is out of step with most voters and 15% are not sure. 48% said Booker is more interested in being on the national stage than he is in serving the people of New Jersey.  This perception accounts for Booker’s weakened support, according to Murray.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Tweet