30th District Primary Looking Less Likely

By Art Gallagher

“The Democrats created this district so that Republicans would spend resources fighting each other while they sit back and get ready for the general election and it looks as like that is going to happen.”  So said Ocean County GOP Chairman George Gilmore about the new 30th legislative district in an interview with MMM early yesterday afternoon.

Within hours what had seemed to be a certain primary between Senators Sean Kean and Robert Singer was apparently avoided.  “Sean is talking to Singer,” said Monmouth GOP Chairman Joe Oxley, “There will be no war between the Ocean and Monmouth Republican organizations. Ocean and Monmouth were key counties in delivering a victory to Governor Christie and we will be working together to deliver Republican gains in the legislature.”

Kean later told the Asbury Park Press that he was uncertain about challenging Singer in the primary.  Singer told the APP that should he retire, that Kean would face an Senate candidate from Lakewood.

With both Senators backing off their firm positions to run, it appears that cooler heads will prevail as a slate is chosen with an eye towards victory in November.

The new 12th district will not be such a heavy lift.  “With three counties, Middlesex, Monmouth and Ocean, each having roughly 1/3 of the population of the district it would seem that each county should have a representative in the legislature,” said Gilmore.  Oxley concurred.

Middlesex County Chairman Sam Thompson, Old Bridge, is an incumbent Assemblyman from the new 12th district.  He has been angling to get the senate nod, touting the fact that he would be the only GOP Senator from Middlesex County and that his senatorial courtesy would give the Christie administration a new bargaining chip in dealing with the Democrats.   GOP sources in the legislature and the administration are divided over the benefit of Thompson having sentatorial courtesy so long as there is a Republican governor.  “The Senate seems to be slipping away from Sam,” said one senior Republican close to the process.

Oxley does not consider Manalapan Mayor Andrew Lucas’ primary bid in the new 12th to be a serious undertaking.  “I don’t know who is giving Andrew his political advice,” said Oxley, “this is not fun and games, it is serious business.”  Oxley was referring to Lucas’ comment on MMM that a legislative primary against Freeholder Director Rob Clifton would be fun.

If Clifton is awarded “the line” in Middlesex, Monmouth and Ocean, a Lucas primary victory would appear to be unlikely even if he runs a competitive race in his Western Monmouth base.

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Quote of the night

“Do you think we would have sold out faster of we had by-laws?”  ~  Joe Oxley

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On By-Laws and Candidate Selection

By Art Gallagher

The boost in traffic visiting this site the last couple of days  and some of the comments in Fred Lehlbach’s post, Where are the By-Laws? ,  and Mike Halfacre’s By-Laws Don’t Matter, Yes They Do, seems to indicate that the topic has considerable interest.

Or maybe I should write less and turn the site over to guest writters more often.  Actually I started this piece in response to Fred’s and before Mayor Halfacre submitted his. Some of my points may duplicate Mike’s.

By-Laws and candidate selection

The 2009 State statute that Fred cited does not require that county committee members be empowered to vote on who the county organization’s endorsed candidates will be.  It requires that there be by-laws and that the by-laws be available to the county committee members.

The Ocean County GOP has by-laws.  There is nothing in them regarding candidate selection.

By-Laws and the law

I think the Monmouth GOP should have by-laws, if for no other reason than to make the controversy go away and to keep it from coming back every year or so.

But that we don’t have by-laws does not mean that the county GOP is operating outside of the law.  As Fred noted, the amendment to NJSA 19:5-3.2  has no effective date.  Even if it did, the law itself was probably unconstitutional the minute Governor Corzine signed it.

In 1989 the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Eu v. San Francisco Democratic Central Committee  that the State of California could not regulate the endorsement of candidates or the way that political parties organize themselves.  The court ruled that the California law in question violated the First and Fourteenth Amendments.

If California can’t do it, New Jersey can’t do it.

The U.S. Supreme Court trumps the NJ Legislature and Corzine.

Oxley’s Candidate Selection Process and County Committee Members

The candidate selection process that Chairman Oxley has employed three times now is not designed to disempower county committee members.  It is designed to empower municipal chairs, who are elected by the county committee members.

The “Oxley method” is a screening committee comprised of all municipal chairs and all present and former elected officials above the municipal level, i.e., all present and former county level officials and state legislators.   The municipal chairs outnumber the “statesmen”  on paper.  Yet in both 2009 and 2010 many municipal chairs, too many, did not show up for the screening committee selection.   As Halfacre noted, the presence of present and former elected officials in the process does dilute the municipal chairs’ influence, and thereby the county committee members, but not nearly as much as voluntary non-participation on the part of the chairs and the committees dilutes their own influence.  There are 53 municipalities in Monmouth County.  If 53 municipal chairs showed up for the screenings, the chairs would have the power.

Oxley has made it clear that he expects the chairs to consult with their local committees. Most who participate in the process do consult with the local committees.

Oxley is not a “boss.” 

In 2009 his choice for Freeholder was not nominated by the screening committee. 

In 2010 everyone knew who Oxley’s choices for the congressional nominations were.  They, Diane Gooch, Scott Sipprelle and incumbent Congressman Chris Smith, won the party endorsements.  If there was any pressure being applied by Oxley for his choices, I, as a municipal chair and a vocal advocate for other candidates in CD 6 and 12, didn’t feel it.  I had no idea who Oxley’s choice for Freeholder was, even after asking him.

In the “Oxley method” those who want to influence the candidate selection process should contact their local county committee members, municipal chairs, elected officials on the county and state level and former elected officials on the county and state level.

Is the “Oxley method” the right way or the best way?  I don’t know.  It has been controversial, even among screening committee members.  However, it is hard to argue with the results. 

Joe Oxley inherited a Monmouth GOP that was on the verge of losing control of county government for the first time in two decades when he was first elected Chairman in June of 2008.  We lost a one seat on the Freeholder board in 2006, 2007 and 2008 each.   We won two of them back, one at a time in 2009 and 2010.  A victory this year brings Monmouth County’s government back into unanimous Republican representation.

Weather you agree with his methods or not, Oxley has stopped the bleeding.  He’s done much better than stop the bleeding.  He’s lead the party to two overwhelming victories in a row.

I love conventions and the campaigning that occurs leading up to them.   I think they bring more people into the process and force candidates to define who they really are.  I think competition is healthy and makes the party stronger.  There is often great political theatre.

Yet it is also true that these campaigns have caused lasting divisions that continue to hurt the party.  Oxley’s two predecessors held conventions.  The party became more and more divided and lost repeatedly.

We should keep examining what we are doing and look to improve it.  Even when it is working well.  We should keep looking for ways to welcome interested people into the process.  In an ideal world open conventions and full committee participation would be the way to go.  But the truth is getting full committee participation looks to be a pipe dream and the recent past of a more open process as proved to be destructive.

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Election Recap

By Art Gallagher

From the top of the ticket to the bottom, the Monmouth GOP under the leadership of Chairman Joe Oxley, earned a resounding and undeniable endorsement from the voters of Monmouth County last Tuesday.

On the top of the ticket, the three Republican candidates for Congress crushed their competition. The combined Monmouth County results of Congressman Chris Smith (CD-4), Mayor Anna Little (CD-6) and Scott Sipprelle (CD-12) were 109,151 to 68,020 over their Democratic opponents, a margin on 62% to 38%.  Unfortunately, due to gerrymandering, Monmouth County is represented by only one Republican in Congress and two Democrats.

On the bottom of the ballot, in the 24 municipalities where there were contests, Republicans won in 15 towns, Democrats in 8 and one town split.  In the 19 towns where there were no contests 14 are controlled by Republicans, 2 by Democrats, 2 are non-partisan.  One town, Oceanport, had one Republican and one Democrat running uncontested.

The heart of the ticket, county candidates Sheriff Shaun Golden, Freeholder Rob Clifton and Freeholder-elect Tom Arnone worked as if they were behind from the beginning of the campaign until the end.  They ran on their records and made their case.  The voters chose them each with pluralities of over 35,000 votes.

Even with these results, there are some who continue to whine or snipe about Chairman Oxley.  Those people should look beyond their personal agendas to the big picture.  Congratulations to Chairman Oxley, to the team he has built and the teams he has empowered.

The losses in CD 6 & 12 were disappointing for many who worked hard on those campaigns.  This was the year to take down Frank Pallone and Rush Holt.  Coming closer than anyone has ever come before does not lessen the sting.

The optimism in 6 and 12 was predicated in the assumption that Independents would break for Republicans and that Democrats would not be motivated to turnout.  Governor Christie’s victories in the districts last year were the original basis of the optimism. Overall dissatisfaction with the Obama administration and  national polls showing a large enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans spurred the optimism that Democratic turnout would be suppressed.

Polls showing the congressional races close woke the Pallone and Holt camps up.  Particularly Adam Geller’s poll for the Little camp that showed Little within 1 point of defeating Pallone.   “You never should have released that poll,” one Democratic insider said in a friendly post-mortem, “half of our team scoffed at the poll, the other half said ‘so what if its not true, something is happening nationally, we can’t take any chances.”  It was then that both Pallone and Holt stepped up their negative ads and prepared their GOTV efforts. 

The ads worked. Both Little’s and Sipprelle’s unfavorable ratings increased in the Monmouth University polls released the week before the election.  The Democratic GOTV efforts, particularly in the cities of Plainfield and Trenton were the electoral equivalent of shock and awe.  

Monmouth County has yet to release town by town numbers, making an accounting for Little’s under performance in the Monmouth portion of the district difficult.  Long Branch and Asbury Park did not have local races.  Thus none of the results in those cities are posted on the county website .   In Neptune Township there was 3150 under votes in the Township Committee race for the Democratic strong hold.  That means there were 3150 voters who cast a ballot but did not vote in the local race. It is a safe bet that Long Branch, Asbury Park and Neptune Township account for Little winning Monmouth by only 4%, while Smith won his portion of the county by over 50 % and Sipprelle by 24%.

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