Despite his repeated and colorful denials of interest, the Republican calls for and media speculation about Governor Chris Christie entering the 2012 Presidential race is not going away.
In large measure that is because Christie doesn’t seem as though he wants it to go away.
“No, I’m not running. I don’t know what to do short of suicide to convince you that I’m not running. Oh, and thanks for asking, I’m really flattered that you are asking, again and again and again, and that you’re willing to raise hundreds of millions of dollars if I change my mind, but I’m not changing my mind.” That’s an invitation to keep asking. It’s a tease. “No, I won’t do it under any circumstances. I’m not ready. But ask me again.”
By most accounts, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels really wanted to run for president. Yet, when he announced that he wasn’t running because he didn’t want to put his family through a presidential campaign, Republican rain makers and the media stopped asking him to run or if there was any chance that he would reconsider.
That’s obviously not the case with Christie.
As I said in my radio conversation with Bob Ingle last week, the only way I can see Christie running is if his wife Mary Pat becomes convinced that another four years of President Obama would have a more detrimental impact on the lives of the Christie children than a Christie presidency would have, and if New Jersey’s First Lady became convinced that Obama was likely to be reelected if her husband didn’t run against him.
As rehearsed and coached as the Christie family appeared in their Piers Morgan interview, after viewing it I was convinced they had made a family decision that Christie wouldn’t run in 2012. I admired their family unity. I admired a marriage that puts the children first.
Yet, why do an interview like that if you’re not running for national office?
I stopped taking the Christie for President buzz seriously after the Morgan interview. Karl Rove’s vibrations about Christie after Texas Governor Rick Perry stole the limelight from Michele Bachman didn’t make me think Christie was running. Ross Douthat’s New York Times columns, here and here didn’t make me think Christie would run. The Daily Caller and Weekly Standard reports that Christie and Congressman Paul Ryan made an pact that one of them would run made me wonder just a bit.
Something happened today that made me wonder if Christie isn’t getting ready to run. It wasn’t the news that Ryan’s not running, according to The Weekly Standard.
Four times today the Christie’s press office sent out email announcements to the press about something Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno is doing, including a video. Usually Guadagno’s public appearances are included in the daily itinerary for the Governor that the press office sends out with little additional mention, if any. Today’s activity was unusual.
The Governor and his team are extraordinarily disciplined. It’s rare that something happens for no reason. If the Governor’s office is intentionally raising Guadagno’s public profile, there is a reason for it.
It makes me wonder if Mary Pat is getting concerned about the Republican field of presidential candidates, our country, and her children’s future.
Governors Chris Christie of New Jersey and Andrew Cuomo of New York sent a joint letter to Port Authority Chairman David Samson and Vice Chairman Stanley Grayson today directing that the toll and fare increases the authority proposed two weeks ago be scaled back and that a comprehensive audit of the capital plan and operations take place.
A copy of the governors’ letter can be found here.
Christie and Cuomo said that their commissioners were able to identify $5 billion in savings within the capital plan over the last two weeks.
Imagine what they could have found if they weren’t in a hurry.
Tolls for cars on the Hudson River crossings will increase by $1.50 in September and then $.75 in December in each year from 2012-2015. The Port Authority’s proposal would have raised these tolls by $4.00 in September. Overall tolls on cars will increase by $4.50 over the next five years rather than the $6.00 PANYNJ proposed over four years.
Drivers paying cash rather than using EZ Pass will pay a $2.00 penalty.
Tolls on trucks using EZ Pass will increase by $2.00 per axle in September, and then an additional $2.00 per year per axle starting in December, 2012-2015.
Trucks paying cash will pay the same increases, plus $3.00 per axle.
Fares on the PATH trains will increase $.25 per year for the next four years.
The governors said that these increases would stop the fiscal crisis at Port Authority and allow for the completion of the World Trade Center and hundreds of other projects that “will ensure the safety and economic viability of a transportation system that millions of New Yorkers and New Jerseyans rely on.”
This toll deal, since the Port Authority’s initial announcement through today’s joint letter by the governors is just too cute for my liking.
Why institute five years worth of toll increases before the comprehensive audit is completed? What happens if the audit reveals another $5 billion in savings? Will tolls be reduced by another $2.50 like the governors were able to reduce the proposed increases with $5 billion in savings discovered in two weeks? Who will conduct the audit? Is prevailing wage on the table for reform? Will the audit be made public? How long will the audit take to complete?
If there is a real fiscal crisis at PANYNJ with a possibility of defaulting on bonds, a more reasonable alternative would have been to grant temporary toll and fare increases, for six months to a year, until the audit could be completed, studied and money saving reforms implemented.
The fact that this fiasco happened during two weeks in August while so many people are vacationing before the back to school rush increases my cynicism and disappointment. It makes me fear what might be in store for us during the last two weeks of December and during the lame duck session of the legislature.
Journalist Jonathan Alter tweeted that sources have told him that Governor Chris Christie is conducting focus groups in preparation for a 2012 run for president.
The Governor’s office is referring requests for comment, confirmation or denial to Mike DuHaime, Christie’s political strategist. DuHamine has not yet responded to MMM’s inquiry.
UPDATE
NJ.com is reporting that Christie’s trusted friend and advisor Bill Palatucci denied that there are focus groups being conducted for a Christie presidential run. Alter issued another tweet saying he has a better source that contradicts the first.
A Quinnipiac poll released this morning indicates that Governor Chris Christie’s approval numbers have rebounded since their June 21 poll. Today New Jersey narrowly approves of the Governor’s performance, 47%-46%. In June Christies’s approval rating was upside down, 44%-47%.
“By a 50-35 percent margin, New Jersey voters like Gov. Christie as a person,” said the Quinnipiac release.
As opposed to what? An alien? A pet? A superhero? Christie did not have to provide a copy of his birth certificate to earn that popularity.
Obama in trouble
President Obama’s approval ratings have taken a huge 10 point negative swing in New Jersey since the June 21 Quinnipiac poll.
In June New Jersey voters approved of the President’s performance, 50-46 percent. Today New Jersey voters disapprove of how the President is doing his job by 52-44 percent. These are Obama’s worst numbers ever in New Jersey.
Unless Obama’s New Jersey numbers improve, Senator Robert Menendez’s reelection prospects are in jeopardy. Menendez’s numbers have been anemic and are declining. In June only 45% of NJ voters approved of Menendez vs 38% who disapproved. Today 39% approve vs 42% who disapprove. Only 41% say Menendez deserves to be reelected vs 43% say he does not. Yet, by a 45-39 percent margin voters say they would back him over an unnamed Republican. Republicans need to nominate a named candidate.
Senate President Stephen Sweeney and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver should thank the Lord that their positions are not subject to a statewide ballot.
Sweeney’s numbers are 23% approve to 40% disapprove. He has suffered a 10 point drop since June.
Oliver fares better only because 54% of New Jersey voters don’t know who she is. 21% of voters approve of the Speaker’s performance and 25% disapprove. Oliver has suffered a 6 point drop since June.
Gender Gap
Men approve of Christie 58-36 percent while woman disapprove of him 55-37 percent.
Women approve of Obama 51-44 percent. Men disapprove 60-37 percent.
MMM accepts responsibility for the gender gap. According to the web tracking site alexa.com, MMM’s audience is overwhelmingly men with children and graduate degrees. We need a female writer or two.
Patrick Murray: Governor May Be Escaping Voters Dissatisfaction With Property Taxes, Managing Expectations
By Art Gallagher
Governor Christie on the Belmar boardwalk with vacationing teenagers from Pennsylvania. Photo credit: NJ.com
Governor Chris Christie’s polling numbers have improved significantly since May.
A Monmouth University/NJ Press Media(Gannett) poll released this morning indicates that 50% of New Jersey registered voters approve of Christie’s performance while 41% disapprove. A May18 poll by Monmouth University had the Governor with a 46% approval rating and a 49% disapproval rating among registered voters.
This is a HUGE 12 point swing in only 3 months.
Unfortunately, Monmouth Polling Director Patrick Murray’s narrative of the poll, and the subsequent mindless media coverage focused on the respondents dissatisfaction with property taxes and other issues, rather than their increasing satisfaction with Christie’s performance.
To his credit, Murray acknowledged as much in a candid phone interview with MMM.
When asked why the Governor’s numbers improved so much Murray said, “I don’t know. I wasn’t expecting such a big swing, we should have asked different questions.”
You’ve got to appreciate Patrick’s candor.
Murray noted that the Governor’s ratings had a similar trend last year, declining during the budget debate and bouncing back after the budget was settled. “It could be that once the crying over the budget cuts is finished, people are more positive.”
Murray speculated that Christie may be able to rise above New Jersey residents dissatisfaction with property taxes and manage their expectations better than his predecessors. “He seems to be managing people’s expectations of how much can be done about property taxes.”
This poll should have been should have been broken up and reported as 1) Voters satisfaction with Chrisite and 2) Voters concerns over the issues that Christie is dealing with. Voters concerns with property taxes, improving schools and the budget are ongoing issues that every governor deals with. This poll tells us that voters are responding favorably to Christie, despite their frustration with the issues. It doesn’t tell us why.
Elsewhere in the media you will read that voters are giving Christie only an average grade and that they are not happy with with how he is handling property taxes, education, etc.
Mayor Matt Doherty and Governor Chris Christie walk the Belmar boardwalk. Photo Credit: Tim Larson, Governor's Office
By Art Gallagher
Governor Christie had such a good time in Belmar today that he’s going back to the beach tomorrow to promote New Jersey’s clean beaches and water.
Christie will be making a stop in Manasquan at 2PM with remarks to the press and then head to the Boardwalk and Dupont Ave. in Seaside Heights at 3:45PM.
Christie spokesperson Michael Drewniak hasn’t responded to my email asking if there are any plans to meet or avoid the cast of Jersey Shore during the Seaside Heights visit.
Politickernj is reporting that New Jersey’s construction unions are leaning on Democratic lawmakers not to criticise Governor Christie over the proposed 50% toll and fare hikes by the Port Authority of NY/NJ. Yet.
The labor unions want New Jersey commuters to fund the $33 billion in NY and NJ infrastructure projects, including the rebuilding of the World Trade Center, that the toll hikes will support.
Trenton Democrats and U.S. Senators Robert Menendez and Frank Lautenberg had initially come out strongly against the toll hikes. Governors Christie and Cuomo claimed they were caught off guard by the toll hike proposal and would review it. Most observers expect Christie and Cuomo to approve lower toll increases than the Port Authority has proposed.
Trenton Democrats are now holding their powder on criticising the proposed hikes, figuring that Christie will look good politically if he responds to the criticism by scaling back the increases. Instead they will attack Republicans after the final hikes are approved.
Christie has blamed the need for toll hikes on years of mismanagement in the Port Authority and has claimed that the people he has appointed are improving the operations and finances of the mega agency. Cuomo said that the proposed toll hikes don’t work for him.
Governor Chris Christie will being holding a press conference in Belmar on Wednesday as one of the stops in a series of beach and boardwalk visits to reaffirm the administration’s commitment to protecting and promoting New Jersey’s beaches and waterways.
The press conference will take place on the Belmar boardwalk between 6th and Ocean Avenue at 3:30PM. Following the press conference the Governor will walk the beach and boardwalk.
Belmar Mayor Matt Doherty said he will be participating in the event and welcomes Christie to his town. “Promoting tourism and the Jersey Shore is what Belmar is all about,” said Doherty.
