A map that favors Pallone?

 The Special Senate Primaries are today.

Turnout is always low in primaries, normally held on the first Tuesday in June.  In the last competitive Democratic Senate primary, 2008 when Congressman Rob Andrews challenged incumbent Senator Frank Lautenberg because he was too old, approximately 325,000 New Jersey Democrats voted.  About 159,000 Republicans voted in the 2008 Senate primary between former Congressman Richard Zimmer and State Senator Joseph Pennacchio.

Voter turnout was always expected to be low for today’s primaries being held on the second Tuesday in August.   The polls indicate that Newark Mayor Cory Booker will easily win the Democratic primary and that former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan is essentially unopposed in the Republican primary. But no one has a historical model by which to predict voter turnout on the second Tuesday in August.

That’s why Congressman Frank Pallone has been running hard like he doesn’t believe, or care about the polls.  Pallone told MSNBC last week that the turnout will be very low, that the polls don’t mean very much at this point, and that he has a strong field operation to get his supporters to the polls.

In the last day of the primary campaign, Booker had Eva Longoria on his bus, Congressman Rush Holt went on The Colbert Report, Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver picked up the last minute endorsement of the Woman Political Caucus of NJ, and Pallone rented a fleet of vans to take voters to the polls.

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Lonengan and Eck Debate Debates

With less than three weeks to go until the Special Senate Primary on August 13, the GOP hopefuls are debating debates.

Yesterday, Dr. Alieta Eck’s campaign Tom Roberts put out a statement with the headline Lonegan Refuses To Debate.

(Somerset, NJ) – Today, Eck for Senate learned that Steve Lonegan has refused a debate organized by the League of Women Voters of New Jersey, which would have matched him against Dr. Alieta Eck on Saturday, July 27th.

“That Steve Lonegan doesn’t want to debate Dr. Eck should probably come as no surprise. Mr. Lonegan has run for office many times and can identify some problems facing Americans, but without solutions he would just join the ranks of those already in DC who are watching our nation’s economic decline. In contrast, Dr. Eck has outlined proven, workable solutions to provide health care and reduce spending. The contrast in a debate would not have been favorable for Mr. Lonegan. We still welcome any future opportunity to debate,” according to Campaign Manager Thomas Roberts.

That sounded like a sound political strategy on Lonegan’s part to me, given that Eck had only 9% name recognition and support from only 5% of registered voters in the last Quinnipiac poll.  For the last week or so, Lonegan has been ignoring Eck and running a general election type campaign, focusing on Newark Mayor Cory Booker and this week, the mad scientist, “millions will die if we don’t tax carbon and make energy completely unaffordable,” Congressman Rush Holt.

But I’m not Lonegan’s strategist.

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