By Alan J. Steinberg This has been the week of the entry of Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno into New Jersey’s 2017 gubernatorial race. The conventional wisdom of the state’s political class is that Guadagno will win the Republican nomination and lose by a substantial margin in the general election to the likely Democratic nominee, former Goldman… Read the rest of this entry »
By Alan J. Steinberg
I have had a rather poor prediction record in this year’s presidential primaries, as I vastly underrated Donald Trump’s appeal. I remain intrepid, however, so the following is my initial Electoral College 2016 projection.
In order to be elected president, a candidate must win states giving him or her a total of at least 270 electoral votes. I believe that Donald Trump will carry all the states won by Mitt Romney in 2012, giving him a base of 206 electoral votes.
I classify seven of the states won by Barack Obama in 2012 as swing states in 2016. These states are the three double digit electoral vote states of Florida (29 electoral votes), Ohio (18), and Pennsylvania (20), and the four single digit electoral vote states of New Hampshire (4), Iowa (6), Colorado (9), and Nevada (6), for a total of 92 electoral votes. Hillary Clinton is likely to carry all the other states won by Obama in 2012, giving her a base of 240 electoral votes.
Posted: May 19th, 2016 | Author: admin | Filed under: 2016 Elections, 2016 Presidential Politics, Alan Steinberg, Opinion | Tags: 2016 Presidential elections, Alan J Steinberg, Analysis, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Opinion, Road to the White House 2016 | 4 Comments »By Alan J. Steinberg
Alan J. Steinberg
Initially, I thought Phil Murphy, as a candidate for the New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2017 would be the second coming of John Corzine – a well-meaning yet out-of-touch gubernatorial candidate who would be unable to communicate effectively with middle class and working class New Jerseyans.
Murphy had been appointed by former Acting Governor Dick Codey in 2005 to chair an advisory commission regarding the state pension shortfall. The commission’s implicit recommendation was a $12.1 billion tax hike – political suicide in New Jersey. To me, this was the forerunner of the Jon Corzine asset monetization/toll hike proposal which doomed him in his reelection campaign against Chris Christie in 2009.
Posted: December 18th, 2015 | Author: admin | Filed under: 2017 NJ Gubernatorial Politics, Alan Steinberg, Opinion | Tags: 2017 Gubernatorial race, Alan J Steinberg, Alan Steinberg, Jon Corzine, Michael Bloomberg, Opinion, Phil Murphy | 2 Comments »By Alan Steinberg
Prior to the election, I predicted on various media appearances that if Mitt Romney lost the presidential race, a national Republican civil war would ensue after the election between 1) the GOP establishment and 2) movement conservatives and grassroots Republicans. I have been surprised how quickly my prediction was proven accurate.
The first major media riposte by the GOP establishment was a column published in the New York Times on December 3, 2012, entitled “Where Have You Gone, Bill Buckley?” by David Welch, a former research director for the Republican National Committee . It’s a good thing that Mr. Welch is a former research director, for in describing Bill Buckley, he demonstrated gross incompetence in historical research skills.
Posted: December 6th, 2012 | Author: admin | Filed under: Republican Party | Tags: Alan J Steinberg, David Welch, GOP Civil War, NY Times, William F. Buckley | 1 Comment »© Copyright 2024 | MoreMonmouthMusings | All Rights Reserved