What President Trump understands that Democrats don’t

Adam Geller, President of National Research, addresses Monmouth County Republicans.

As a practitioner of public opinion polling, I’ve studied, poked and analyzed opinions for more than 25 years. I’ve learned and grown to appreciate how fickle and malleable opinions can be. I’ve also come to understand through opinion research, why President Trump is playing a winning hand going into 2020 and why he is better positioned for victory than you might think.

Mr. Trump isn’t playing the opinion game. He is playing on a different field. He is playing on beliefs and values. And his opponents are all too happy to assist him.

Opinions can change, and they often do. Beliefs don’t change. We can change our opinion about a candidate, or a restaurant, or a TV series. But we don’t change our fundamental values. We don’t change our beliefs. Opinions are ephemeral. Beliefs are unwavering.

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Adam Geller joins pro-Trump Super PAC

Adam Geller

Pollster extraordinaire Adam Geller, president of National Research, Inc., Holmdel, has signed on with America First Action PAC and America First Policies, according to a report at Washington Examiner.

The news in June that Geller had been “fired” by the Trump campaign was fake.   Joining the Super PAC was always the plan.  The FEC mandated “cooling off period” before a professional can move between a campaign and a PAC supporting the same candidate recently expired.

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Scharfenberger sworn in as Monmouth County Freeholder

Monmouth County Clerk Christine Giordano Hanlon issues the Oath of Office to Freeholder Gerry Scharfenberger as his family looks on.

Freehold Township- Gerry Scharfenberger of Middletown was sworn in as a Monmouth County Freeholder on Saturday immediately after the Republican County Committee elected him by acclamation to fill the vacancy on the Board that occurred when Serena DiMaso took office in the State Assembly last month. Read the rest of this entry »

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Geller: Guadagno Leading Ciattarelli 2-1 In GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Adam Geller

One of the pollsters who propelled President Donald Trump to victory last year says Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno is leading her opponent for the NJ GOP gubernatorial nomination by a 2-1 margin with less than three weeks to go before the primary.

Adam Geller of Holmdel, the President of National Research Inc. and a FoxNews contributor, released a memo through the Guadagno campaign this afternoon that states, “With less than three weeks left until the Republican Primary, Kim Guadagno remains strongly positioned to receive the GOP nomination. She has had stronger fundraising, more cash on hand, more county endorsements, and stronger poll numbers according to our latest campaign survey.”

Geller characterised the Ciattarelli campaign as “ineffective” and “negative.”

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Trump’s Internal Polls Were Spot On

By Adam Geller

I want to give a gentle pushback against the narrative that “all the polls were wrong” on the Presidential race. Many of them were wrong. Maybe most of them were. But the internal polls for the campaign were spot on.

You may recall that the pundits laughed when Kellyanne mentioned that we spotted a fairly large hidden Trump vote, or as she called them, “undercover Trump voters.” Our polling always showed these folks in fairly large numbers. And they fell off of their chairs on their bright shiny studio sets when we started actively campaigning in states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania. But again, the polling provided evidence that there were cracks in that big blue wall. And we listened to the polls, and trusted them.

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Rebovich Institute Cancels Gubernatorial Campaign Recap

Ben Dworkin, Director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics, introduces U.S. Senate candidate Steve Lonegan at a September 24, 2013 event.

Rider University’s Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics has cancelled its 2013 Campaign Managers Conference.  The annual event is designed as a open discussion of the previous year’s general election featuring key players from each party.

The recent scandals over the George Washington Bridge lane closures and allegations that the Christie Administration has been dolling out federal Sandy relief money with political and economic strings attached is the reason for the cancellation of this year’s event which was schedule for Thursday, February 20th.

Benjamin Dworkin, Executive Director of the Institute issued the following statement:

The 2013 gubernatorial campaign in New Jersey was a fascinating race, and we had eagerly looked forward to focusing on this particular race during the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics’ Campaign Managers Conference – our annual look at how modern campaigns are run.

Unfortunately, due to recent controversies and ongoing investigations, it has become clear that a full discussion of the campaign is not possible at this time. Therefore, the Rebovich Institute has chosen to cancel the conference.

We want to thank all of our panelists, including Hon. Bonnie Watson Coleman, Hon. Bill Palatucci, Adam Geller, David Turner and Michael DuHaime for their willingness to participate. We look forward to a meaningful discussion of this campaign at some point in the future.

We apologize for any inconvenience to our panelists, supporters, and for all others planning to attend this event.

 

The next public event for the Rebovich Institute will be Leadership & Comedy: An Evening with Hon. Jon Bramnick, NJ Assembly Republican Leader, on Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at 7 p.m.

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Internal Poll has Kyrillos within 4 points of Menendez

The Kyrillos for U.S. Senate campaign released an internal poll this afternoon that shows the GOP challenger within 4 points of the incumbent, Democrat Robert Menendez, with 65 days left to go before election day. 45% of those survey said they would vote for Menendez, 41% would vote for Kyrillos and 14% are undecided.

Of the Menendez voters, 76% said they were definitely voting for the Hudson County incumbent while 24% said they probably would.  71%  of Kyrillos voters were solid compared to 29% probable.

The poll, which was conducted by Magellan Strategies between August 30 and September 3rd, is a survey of 746 likely general election voters from New Jersey.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5% with 95% confidence.  The survey was weighted based upon past general election turnout demographics.

29% of the respondents were Republicans, 39% Democrats and 35% Independents.  27% of the respondents consider themselves conservative, 16% say they are liberal and 51% say they are moderate.

“Joe’s message of creating jobs for the middle class and working together with members of both sides of the aisle is resonating with the voters of New Jersey,” said Kyrillos Campaign Manager Chapin Fay. “It’s clear New Jerseyans want change and, if this surge continues, in two months they will have it when Joe Kyrillos is elected the next US Senator from New Jersey.”

“This marks another poll in which Menendez is yet again under 50%,” said Adam Geller of National Research, the Kyrillos campaign’s pollster.

Menendez 2012 communication director Paul Brubaker was not immediately available for comment.  This post will be updated if he calls back.

If they follow their usual pattern, Quinnipiac will likely release a Kyrillos-Menendez poll from the survey they took August 27-September 2 within the next few days.

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Buyer’s Remorse May Swing the Election

“I voted for Obama in 2008, but I’m not going to vote for him this time.”

By Adam Geller

We’ve all heard someone utter this phrase, or something close to it by now.   Whether we are in the business of politics, analyzing polls and focus groups, or having a more casual conversation about the political scene, this is a statement that seems to come up more often as we draw closer to Election Day 2012.

Now, to be fair, there are plenty of folks who are saying, “I voted for Obama in ’08, and I will vote for him again in ’12.”   As long as we are being fair, let us also acknowledge the fact that we have yet to hear anyone state that they voted for McCain last time, but this time they will vote for Obama.

So, the pressing question is the extent to which previous Obama voters will, in fact change their mind.   How many mind-changers are needed to make a difference, and swing the election away from Obama? 

The answer is: not that many.

Rather than add to the body of analysis that already exists on a state-by-state basis, I want to simply concentrate on the popular vote.   In sticking with an analysis of the popular vote, I make every assumption that much of the movement that I describe herein would take place in the battleground states with which we are all familiar.

Let’s start with a reasonable, conservative (small c) theory: let’s assume that no more than one-out-of-ten 2008 Obama voters actually do, in fact, change their minds and this time vote for the Republican.   Now, some may say that the actual number may be higher than that, but for now, let’s stick with a smaller safer assumption.   Let’s also assume, for now, that turnout matches 2008 turnout.

First, let’s go back and look at the actual popular vote results.   Recall that in 2008, the vote tally was:

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Adam Geller: Menendez is Corzine like vulnerable

Prominent Republican pollster and FoxNews analyst Adam Geller says that today’s FDU poll which has U.S. Senator Robert Menendez beating either Republican State Senator Joe Kyrillos or former Highlands Mayor Anna Little by a 43%-31%, is very bad news for Menendez.

In a memo to the Kyrillos for Senate Exploritory Committee obtained by MMM Geller said:

The takeaway from today’s FDU poll is Bob Menendez is very vulnerable and this is a real opportunity for a good candidate to defeat him. Any incumbent under 50% is in trouble and Menendez is under 45%, which means he is in major trouble.  That is Jon Corzine territory

Joe Kyrillos, even though not yet a candidate, would make a very strong opponent for Menendez because of his personal and fundraising base and his consistently strong fiscally conservative voting record in New Jersey.

I would also note that only 28% of voters think the country is headed in the right direction. That is a terrible number for an incumbent arguing that he ought to be re-elected. 

The bottom line of this poll is that if Joe Kyrillos were to jump into this race, Bob Menendez is in serious trouble.
 

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In Case You Missed It: Adam Geller on Fox About the Congressional Elections

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