What President Trump understands that Democrats don’t

Adam Geller, President of National Research, addresses Monmouth County Republicans.

As a practitioner of public opinion polling, I’ve studied, poked and analyzed opinions for more than 25 years. I’ve learned and grown to appreciate how fickle and malleable opinions can be. I’ve also come to understand through opinion research, why President Trump is playing a winning hand going into 2020 and why he is better positioned for victory than you might think.

Mr. Trump isn’t playing the opinion game. He is playing on a different field. He is playing on beliefs and values. And his opponents are all too happy to assist him.

Opinions can change, and they often do. Beliefs don’t change. We can change our opinion about a candidate, or a restaurant, or a TV series. But we don’t change our fundamental values. We don’t change our beliefs. Opinions are ephemeral. Beliefs are unwavering.

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Adam Geller joins pro-Trump Super PAC

Adam Geller

Pollster extraordinaire Adam Geller, president of National Research, Inc., Holmdel, has signed on with America First Action PAC and America First Policies, according to a report at Washington Examiner.

The news in June that Geller had been “fired” by the Trump campaign was fake.   Joining the Super PAC was always the plan.  The FEC mandated “cooling off period” before a professional can move between a campaign and a PAC supporting the same candidate recently expired.

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Geller: Guadagno Leading Ciattarelli 2-1 In GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Adam Geller

One of the pollsters who propelled President Donald Trump to victory last year says Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno is leading her opponent for the NJ GOP gubernatorial nomination by a 2-1 margin with less than three weeks to go before the primary.

Adam Geller of Holmdel, the President of National Research Inc. and a FoxNews contributor, released a memo through the Guadagno campaign this afternoon that states, “With less than three weeks left until the Republican Primary, Kim Guadagno remains strongly positioned to receive the GOP nomination. She has had stronger fundraising, more cash on hand, more county endorsements, and stronger poll numbers according to our latest campaign survey.”

Geller characterised the Ciattarelli campaign as “ineffective” and “negative.”

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Internal Poll has Kyrillos within 4 points of Menendez

The Kyrillos for U.S. Senate campaign released an internal poll this afternoon that shows the GOP challenger within 4 points of the incumbent, Democrat Robert Menendez, with 65 days left to go before election day. 45% of those survey said they would vote for Menendez, 41% would vote for Kyrillos and 14% are undecided.

Of the Menendez voters, 76% said they were definitely voting for the Hudson County incumbent while 24% said they probably would.  71%  of Kyrillos voters were solid compared to 29% probable.

The poll, which was conducted by Magellan Strategies between August 30 and September 3rd, is a survey of 746 likely general election voters from New Jersey.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5% with 95% confidence.  The survey was weighted based upon past general election turnout demographics.

29% of the respondents were Republicans, 39% Democrats and 35% Independents.  27% of the respondents consider themselves conservative, 16% say they are liberal and 51% say they are moderate.

“Joe’s message of creating jobs for the middle class and working together with members of both sides of the aisle is resonating with the voters of New Jersey,” said Kyrillos Campaign Manager Chapin Fay. “It’s clear New Jerseyans want change and, if this surge continues, in two months they will have it when Joe Kyrillos is elected the next US Senator from New Jersey.”

“This marks another poll in which Menendez is yet again under 50%,” said Adam Geller of National Research, the Kyrillos campaign’s pollster.

Menendez 2012 communication director Paul Brubaker was not immediately available for comment.  This post will be updated if he calls back.

If they follow their usual pattern, Quinnipiac will likely release a Kyrillos-Menendez poll from the survey they took August 27-September 2 within the next few days.

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In Case You Missed It: Adam Geller on Fox About the Congressional Elections

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