Bayshore Tea Party Backed Slate Claims Momentum With Polling Data In LD13

Won’t Say Who Is Doing The Polling Or Reveal Data


townhall.com photo

townhall photo

Bellew for State Senate campaign manager Dwayne Horner called from Texas to say that the campaign polled 5,000 Republican voters in LD 13 on Sunday evening and that 83% said they favored replacing the incumbents.  Horner refused to name the polling firm, saying only that its a well respected Republican firm that worked for the Romney campaign in Florida and several Texas congressional campaigns.

Horner declined to say what questions were asked of those polled, saying he would not get into the specifics of the poll.  Twice MMM asked if the incumbents were named in the polling questions.  Twice Horner declined to answer.

“83% said the incumbents should not be re-elected,” Horner said. “Did you tell them who the incumbents are?” we asked. “I’m not getting into the specifics of the poll, but Leigh-Ann Bellew’s name was mentioned,” Horner responded.

Horner challenged Senator Joe Kyrillos and the anonymous Republican political operative quoted below to go door to door and find 8 of 10 voters who plan to reelect Kryillos.


we the peopleThe slate of candidates challenging LD 13 legislative incumbents, Senator Joe Kyrillos, Assemblywoman Amy Handlin and Assemblyman Declan O’Scanlon claim they have polling data that indicates “voters overwhelming want to fire the incumbents.”

An email sent to Bayshore Tea Party Group members by co-founder Barbara Gonzalez reads, in part, as follows:

Momentum  is on the side of the candidates of R4CL.  Voters overwhelmingly say they are ready to fire the  current incumbents. Internal polls show that voters are ready to support  a new slate of candidates.

Gonzalez told MoreMonmouthMusings that she does not know who is conducting polls for the primary challengers led by state senate candidate Leigh-Ann Bellew or what the numbers say. “That message was sent over by the campaign, I just cut and paste and sent it out,” said Gonzalez, “but my internal poll agrees with it.  Everyone I talk to wants a change.”

Neither Bellew nor her campaign manager Dwayne Horner have returned phone calls asking for information about their polling.

A Republican operative aligned with Kyrillos who declined to be named because he/she is not authorized to speak for the incumbents’ campaign laughed when told about the BTPG email.

“They’re making it up, just like Bellew is making up her resume,” the operative said, “we’re very comfortable with our numbers, Bellew won’t get 20% of the vote.” The operative also declined to say who was polling for the incumbents and what their numbers indicate.

Posted: April 24th, 2013 | Author: | Filed under: 2013 Election, Amy Handlin, Barbara Gonzalez, Bayshore Tea Party Group, Declan O'Scanlon, Joe Kyrillos, LD 13, Leigh-Ann Bellew | Tags: , , , , , , | 16 Comments »

16 Comments on “Bayshore Tea Party Backed Slate Claims Momentum With Polling Data In LD13”

  1. Bull said at 10:54 am on April 24th, 2013:

    Babs has internal polling?? It certainly is internal because it’s all in her mind. They have no resources to conduct a scitifically based poll. No doubt the Tea Party pole was based on an internal polling of their own members all 12 of them.

    As to the erstwhile Senate candidate’s polling, it cant be trusted unless they release the internals and the data. Is the firm reputable?

    I will bet u half the electorate doesn’t even know Belle and she.doesn’t seem to be doing much to change that with only 8 weeks t the primary.

    How much money has she raised?


    Silence Do good, Redux

  2. More On Dwayne Horner, The Campaign Manager said at 11:47 am on April 24th, 2013:



  3. The Real Poll will be Counting Soon! said at 12:50 pm on April 24th, 2013:

    The real pollsters of LD13 will speak loud and clear in June. This party has been corrupted and persuaded by special interests over the years. Just check the incumbents elec forms online, and you’ll fine disgusting and disturbing information, seeing who has donated to whom, and what the perceived quid pro quo and pay-to-play is.

    I have not abandoned the Republican party; it has abandoned me.

    Join me in supporting the R4CL candidates challenging the regular party line supported incumbents in LD 13–and those candidates (also going against the same old party line candidates) going for county-wide office as well!

  4. I find the below dialogue disturbing said at 12:55 pm on April 24th, 2013:

    Inside knowledge by two people discussing information from the “Rising Star” discussed earlier. This could be harmful.

    What pension “scam”?? said at 6:17 pm on April 23rd, 2013:

    When will some jealous people get over a legal system that still permits some people to work after a retirement? You don’t like it, tell your fine legislators to change the system, period. And,ps: he didn’t hire the person you still apparently are worried about, the prior sheriff did, so again, why not just save your stomach juices and heart palpitations, and get over it.

    This Pension Scam!!! said at 7:50 am on April 24th, 2013:

    I hate to burst your bubble about your “rising star” Shaun Golden, but shortly after his election as sheriff, he issued an order re-organizing the sheriff’s department detailing every position along with its duties. Guess what? The position of “Chief Warrant Officer” was not among the positions in the General Order. However, Mickey Donovan was still your “Chief Warrant Officer” —a FICTITIOUS, Non-existent position, which enabled the man to collect a pension AND a salary. Keep in mind, Guadagno eliminated the position one week prior to bringing Donovan on board. The position was never re-established.
    The above actions permitted the “scam” to continue, until Golden, realizing the scam was exposed, moved Donovan into an undersheriff position. So you see, the Golden Boy is complicit as well.
    All will be coming out!!! Is this what our chief county law enforcement officer is all about? This is not good government policy; this is disgusting!

  5. Bob English said at 1:41 pm on April 24th, 2013:

    The last time that I heard of anyone talking about a secret magical poll where they were unable to provide any details about the poll itself was when Dick Morris was predicting a Romney landslide.

  6. Hahah said at 1:52 pm on April 24th, 2013:

    They polled for the Romney campaign in Florida?

    You mean the State where Romney didn’t even see the car coming before it ran him over? End the credibility of the pollster

  7. Dueling Polls in LD13 | The Save Jersey Blog said at 2:27 pm on April 24th, 2013:


  8. EyesWideOpen said at 2:38 pm on April 24th, 2013:

    This is utter nonsense.

  9. Oh, "I find," said at 3:26 pm on April 24th, 2013:

    You will never stop being jealous of Mickey, who has had a long and sterling career as a cop, in the prosecutor’s office, and now as one of three trusted undersheriffs, and still doing a great job: sure, it’s a legitimate place any good cop wants to go to work when retiring, but only the best ones get to be it, and, it is totally within each county’s Constitutional sheriff’s purview, to hire the people he trusts and admires!

  10. You just Love that Mickey Don't Ya said at 4:22 pm on April 24th, 2013:

    Is Mickey going reimburse the pension system the quarter of a million dollars he owes? Is our top law enforcement officer of the county–who took an oath of office, going to do or say something? Is he going to give the electorate an explanation for what he did? Or is “Silence Golden?”

    Again, please answer the question: Why has Sheriff Shaun Golden placed a high-ranking official in a FICTITIOUS position?

    Could it be to illegally obtain BOTH a pension and county salary–off the backs of us sick, tired, and disgusted taxpayers.

    Please don’t give me, “Mickey is a good guy or this or that.” Just answer the question.

    Rest assured this issue has not gone to bed.

    The only think Mickey is the Mickey Mouse operation Sheriff Shaun Golden operates.

  11. TheDigger said at 4:40 pm on April 24th, 2013:

    I can confirm my wife received the phone polling questions (too darn long) and that she clearly stated she was voting for Joe Kyrillos.

    Ooops …you mean she’s in the minority???

    We’ll see on Primary Day.

  12. What Kind Of Campaign Manager said at 5:02 pm on April 24th, 2013:

    Works from a dozen states away???

    Horner won’t answer questions because there was no poll. Another fraud, just like Bellew and her phoney education/attorney credentials.

    ANY REPUTABLE POLL releases the internals, the demographics and the questions.

    Dueling Polls in LD13 | The Save Jersey Blog said at 2:27 pm on April 24th, 2013:



    Silence Dogood, Redux

  13. More about this phoney baloney poll said at 6:40 pm on April 24th, 2013:

    Horner declined to say what questions were asked of those polled, saying he would not get into the specifics of the poll. Twice MMM asked if the incumbents were named in the polling questions. Twice Horner declined to answer.

    “83% said the incumbents should not be re-elected,” Horner said. “Did you tell them who the incumbents are?” we asked. “I’m not getting into the specifics of the poll, but Leigh-Ann Bellew’s name was mentioned,” Horner responded.

    Sounds like a form of push polling to me.


    “One way to distinguish between push polling as a tactic and polls which legitimately seek information is the sample size. Genuine polls make do with small, representative samples, whereas push polls can be very large,” as in the 5000 sample.

    Geeze Presidential Polling doesn’t even do that large a sample, but then Goofball Horner would know that if he was worth his weight as a campaign manager.

    NO one polls 5000 people in a state legislative election where turn out might not be near that. Such oversampling leads to inherent errors because many of these might be infrequent voters who may very well never turn out in a primary.

    They are doing what Obama does, appeal to the low information voter.

    As well, when only one candidate is named, the error always slides toward the candidate named. “Yeah, sure; I’ll vote for her.”



    Silence Dogood, Redux

  14. George Gallup Jr said at 6:53 pm on April 24th, 2013:

    They polled 5,000 Republican voters in one district!

    In my day, we would poll about 1,500 people to take the pulse of the entire country. I hear that whippersnapper Patrick Murray polls 1300 people for the entire state of New Jersey.

  15. The Marquess Of Bayshore said at 7:00 pm on April 24th, 2013:

    Polls don’t matter since most RINOs will stay home anyway because they think they own the state and don’t need bother to vote. OTOH, Conservatives and Citizen-Patriots are fed up with Chris Christie, Joe Kyrillos and the rest of the country club RINO bosses who campaign like Steve Lonegan but govern like Christie Whitman, and they will turn out in overwhelming numbers to vote for Tea Party Approved and Constitutionally Certified candidates Seth Grossman for Governor and Leigh Ann Bellew for State Senator.

  16. MoreMonmouthMusings » Blog Archive » Marist/NBC Poll Is Bad News For New Jersey Tea Parties said at 10:17 am on May 8th, 2013:

    […] Bellew’s campaign said that 83% or their respondents favor Tea Party candidates in the 13th.  Campaign manager Dwayne Harris would not get into the specifics of the poll, like the margin of error or how many phone calls they had to make to reach 5000 people. […]