LD 11…..2013
By Matthew Gould, cross posted at Republican Out Of The Blue
It is no secret that the Republican field in New Jersey’s 11th legislative district ran a tough campaign this election cycle with mail pieces, some controversial, going out almost daily leading up to the election (I had the pleasure of getting 2 in one day), robocalls from everyone and their mother, door knocking and lots of fundraising. But the question is why? Why are these three popular incumbents running like their seat depends on it when the 2011 election pretty much became a lock when the Democrats announced their field?
The answer is 2013. The Republicans were 1% worried about 2011 and 99% worried about 2013
The next time New Jerseyians vote for a new state legislature is 726 days from now for those who are counting. By then the London Summer Olympics will have ended, we will hopefully still be here (granted the end of the world predictions are wrong), if all goes accordingly we will have a new President of the United States and Chris Christie will be so popular there wont even be a need for an election in New Jersey. Well that last one is a bit far fetched. But there is still a question as to why the District 11 incumbents are so concerned with 2013 and I think I have an answer for you.
Background
- The redrawn 11th district gave democrats a voter registration advantage over Republicans of approximately 10,000, removing Republican heavy Wall Twp. and Rumson from the district and adding the Democrat saturated towns of Asbury Park, Neptune, Ocean and Long Branch.
- Asbury Park, Neptune and Ocean are home to a large number of minority voters.
- In 2009 Chris Christie won the new LD-11 65%-35% over unpopular incumbent John Corzine.
- The Democrat map, which was chosen by Alan Rosenthal, the 11th member of the redistricting team put the 11th district in play.
What does this all mean? After the map was drawn parties only had a limited number of days to recruit candidates to run for office. The Republican Party had the clear advantage in the process as the LD-11 looped three Republican incumbents together, all with established support and campaign structures. The Democrats on the other hand were rushed to choose candidates, all of whom would be running for the first time. On top of that the Republicans had candidates in numerous other districts, most notable, 1,2,7,14,18 and 38 who were able to divert the resources of the Democrat State Committee Unions and big democratic donors from seats like LD-11 that could be possible pick ups to seats they needed to save.
In 2013 Gov. Christie will be running for re-election and although there is no clear cut Democratic challenger there is a chance Newark mayor Cory Booker will be nominated. Bookers possible nomination plays a big roll in the outcome of the Legislative election in D-11 come 2013. Why so much emphasis on Cory Booker? Mr. Booker has become somewhat of a popular national figure having appeared on The Oprah Winfrey show with Facebook founder Mark Zuckerburg to receive a $100 million dollar grant for Newark Public schools, he is everywhere on twitter, pioneering the way politicians use the popular social media site, his nationwide appeal opens the door for large amounts of out of state money, especially in an off year gubernatorial election where the democrats will be looking to take back the governors mansion and the NJEA will work tirelessly and spend millions of dollars of membership dues to take Christie out and Mr. Booker is a very popular minority politician.
I will be willing to bet a large amount of money that the democrats will be targeting the 11th district in 2013 not only as a possible pick up in the Legislature but for big democratic turn out in the gubernatorial election. This would hold especially true if Cory Booker were to get the nomination. The New Jersey democrats look at Cory Booker as an Obama type politician; charismatic, excellent communicator and campaigner and a candidate that will spark enthusiasm among minority voters. This spells possible trouble for the Republicans in district 11 come 2013, especially in towns with a large minority population, Asbury Park, Neptune and Long Branch, all of which are additions for to the 11th district for Casagrande who has very little name recognition in these towns. Mary Pat Angelini has had Asbury Park, Neptune and Long Branch in her district for sometime now so she has a slight advantage when it comes to name recognition especially since most of the towns she had not represented in the old 11th district are Republican strong holds.
This leads us back to the 2011 mid-term elections and the tough campaign the LD-11 Republican team ran. I don’t think it is because they were worried about their democratic challengers in this election cycle but because of their concern for 2013.
None of this is set in stone, a lot can still change in 726 days. It is not known who the Democrats will nominate as their gubernatorial candidate (Republicans get to sit back and watch the bickering for once), the Republicans will not let such a large portion of Monmouth County, which produced a large plurality for Christie in 2009 fall by the wayside, money will flow in from out of state sources for both parties and the Republicans may have an ally in the White House come 2013, especially if Mitt Romney, a close Christie ally, gets the republican nomination and wins the White House and Gov. Christies popularity continues to rise as the state see’s results from his policies. Heck, there are hundreds of factors that will play into 2013 but it seems to me like Beck, Angelini and Casagrande are taking nothing for granted. A move, I think will pay off in 2 years.
More from my site
Long Branch Mayor Adam Schneider Endorses Republicans Beck, Angelini and Casagrande
Showdown at the Press editorial board!
Report: Gopal Considering Another Run For Assembly
MMM Year In Review – April
Beck, Angelini, Pledge Gay Marriage Support
Zipprich and McMillian To Challenge Angelini and Casagrande in LD 11
In LD 11, Angelini and Casagrande trailing Houghtaling and Downey
What if we held an election and nobody cared? Part 1, 11th district
Democrats oust Republicans in Assembly’s 11th District
BECK, ANGELINI AND CASAGRANDE TO SEEK RE-ELECTION
This is interesting, but as an average no one, I just don’t entirely agree or think it makes sense.
The district is registered D heavy but I don’t think it means much as most Ds don’t turn out. I bet a lot of registered Ds from 2008 are/were renters who may or may not even live here still and their voter registration just doesn’t reflect the new address, ie – they live elsewhere and never re-registered/won’t re-register.
Even if the candidate were Booker, I don’t think you’d see the media hype like there was for the first [half-]African American president. Not to mention, I could be wrong, but IMO part of Obama’s appeal to folks was that he promised them the moon and the stars, for free, and he had no record in any office to that proved he couldn’t deliver. I firmly believe his lack of a record was a boost to his own claims of what he could deliver, there was no reason for people to doubt him, “can you give us a handout?” … “yes we can”. We’ve all seen the videos: the “Obama gunna pay my house!” and Imma get me some free healfcare!”, but Booker can’t promise Obama’s handouts because Booker, love him or hate him, actually has a record and experience in office to point to, he hasn’t given handouts in Newark, is he going to give away handouts here? No? Not voting for him. I’d guess the police unions can’t be happy with Booker after the 100 some police officers who were let go up there, just a guess, anyone know? Voters, even the minority Democrats and OWS college kids who want handouts as if they are really free aren’t complete fools and I don’t believe that they will buy into the Booker as a money tree line like they did for Obama.
This entry also fails to note that Christie is no McCain. Many hard workers, self-included, sat home leading up to the McCain/Obama election rather than bust ass for McCain, and McCain did well overall. Most folks, self-included, were willing to do some work for Christie, and I think Christie has proven himself where the hard workers will work even harder, the people who do a little will do a lot, and the not so hard workers will care enough to do at least something.I think despite Christie’s HUGE victory of Corzine, Republicans, esp in Monmouth County/D11 can and will deliver even more for him a second go-around.
But the biggest problem I see with this analysis is that none of the big towns mentioned (Neptune/Asbury Park/Long Branch) where this guy thinks there will be a huge D turnout have a well known D, or even an up and coming D, to run as a candidate in D11. They could run another newbie who makes Obama type promises, but I don’t think a new, unknown name will get that Obama media hype and I don’t know if anyone, Oprah included, would be willing to just give money away to a newbie/noone. Also important, AP and LB are “non-partisan” and while the incumbents are essentially Ds, and have been around a while, they seem to be little known outside of their own towns and those who might fit into that “well known” category (Randy Bishop?) have tried and failed for higher office before, I think multiple times. The bench just doesn’t go very deep for the Ds, at least as far as I know. Vin Gopal was supposed to be the rising star, and he was crushed, easily. And also, another big hurdle for the Ds is that they don’t have a single representative in office in the county/state now to advocate for their party; it makes fundraising and name recognition difficult. Who wants to go see Vin, he can’t do anything for them… but who wants to go see Caroline, who is elected and can do something? “Meet your Assemblywoman” sounds better than “meet a guy who lost a race but wants to try again!” All the Republicans have to do is not be corrupt, not be involved in scandals or abuse the system, and while that may seem like a lot to ask, it’s basic. Without a way to build name recognition from repeated good press, and without a “star” to drag out for fundraising, I just don’t see how the Ds will find and run candidates that gets voters out, or build a “machine” that could get Booker a vote or two over Christie. It seems like the Ds want to make a rising star out of Bill Shea, beneficiary of the taxpayer dollar at the young age of 33, but unless Bill moves out of Howell, he won’t be running in D11 and I don’t think the Lakewood Rs will be electing him in 30 either.
IMO, I would say that the D11 candidates will be just fine in 2013. I think there *could* (dare I even say SHOULD) be a Republican primary challenge in D11 — the Rs have a lot of good, well known names around the various towns with good conservative Republican records, but the party under Chairman Oxley seems to be united, very strong and thinking big picture, I think winning a primary challenge to an incumbent would be difficult if not impossible.
So anyhow, I wouldn’t bet so much Matt, but hey, by 2013, sports betting may at least be legal.
I wonder where’s Art to discuss other changes happening soon? Like who’ll be appointed freeholder instead of Rob Clifton?
appreciate the analyses and optimism, but, in an off year, when much time and effort and money went to secure big Rep. victories for Monmouth County and our entire legislative delegation, I hope we all had fun celebrating Tuesday night, because, unless something “magically” occurs, I unfortunately think it’s all downhill from here, over the next two years…yes, it is a threat to have Booker in the wings, he’s smart and attractive, probably a lot more so than the creepy President is, but, with all the money that pours into our largest city, Newark, one would think/hope he could get a handle on all the murders and other crimes on the upswing, there, which is very troubling.. and, I expect to see all that windfall money for their schools, which we all already fund to the enth- degree, get them the very best in improvements, and perhaps golden lockers, and finally, a better outcome for the oppressed students trying to learn, there!.. that said, Booker has a great chance of winning, you’d think our Gov.’d at least have been able to help us to gain a FEW seats this year, but, no, he was off to Boston, California, wherever, and we go and LOSE one!..I think he’s in trouble in 2013, for sure, and so are we, here… as for 2012, am scared to death at the expected,huge turnout:( 405, 000 possible voters in Monmouth, now)- we here need to find and pick a really strong freeholder to replace Rob Clifton who brings: experience, funraisinf ability, popularity, and volunteers! to assist: it’ll be popular County Clerk French, then Freeholder Curley, then the new person next year in Presidential, who, if they win, then has to run a second time in a row, with Sheriff Shaun and Freeholder Tom( and a questionably-popular Gov.), in 2013!!.. folks, we will need to be very united,diligent, and engaged, if we want to hold this county-period!.. so, we can’t rest on a nice off-year at all- the fun/challenge begins yet again, so may the interested and hardy among us, all get really ready to help!
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