What Are The Trenton Democrats Up To?
By Art Gallagher
Our friends at InTheLobby are questioning Trenton Democrats political sanity. Daily Muse says the Democrats seem to be poised to blame Governor Christie for NJ’s average 4% property tax increases, yet they are giving Christie very strong ammunition with which to run against them in the coming legislative election by failing to pass the “tool kit,” pension and benefit reform and expanded veto power over the shadow government of the authorities and commissions.
But a lot of what is taking place in Trenton these days confuses us.We get that Democrats are looking to blame Christie for the 4% rise in property taxes. Higher property taxes are always a good campaign issue, especially in a year when all 120 seats in the Legislature are up for re-election.
What we don’t get is why the Democrats are giving Christie so many talking points to counter that with on the campaign trail. They won’t pass the bulk of the tool kit; they haven’t passed the pension or benefit reforms; and they won’t give Christie the expanded veto power over authorities that he wants.
We know that the unions are opposed to the pension and benefit reforms. And we know that the Assembly is balking at any health benefit reforms, saying that the reforms should be made in collective bargaining. Which, by the way, doesn’t sound like it’s a point that will sell well with the rest of New Jersey’s voters, but we’ll see how firm the Assembly’s resolve is after Senate President Steve Sweeney posts his health benefit bill for a vote.
But that still leaves the question: why don’t Democrats call Christie’s bluff, and pass the rest of the tool kit, the epanded veto power, and the pension and benefit reforms? They’ll still have the 4% increase in property taxes, and they’ll take away one of his campaign speeches. Otherwise, he will barnstorm the state, accusing Democrats of being beholden to the special interests, and choosing them over the taxpayers.
Frankly, as it stands now, it’s almost as if Democrats instead are giving Christie a tool kit of campaign rhetoric he can them against them this fall.
I don’t think the Democrats behavior is confusing at all. They are doing what they always do; protecting the status quo and hoping to find ways to preserve the troughs from which they and their friends are swilling.
There are two things the Democrats are waiting for before they will do anything about Christie’s reform agenda. 1) The new legislative map and 2) certainty that Christie will complete or not complete his term.
The Democrats don’t want Christie’s reforms to happen ever. They want the economy to improve so that the public’s mood improves and cash starts flowing into the Trenton coffers. They want to bide their time waiting for an angry electorate to become complacent again in order that Trenton can resume its spending rampage.
If the Democrats think the new legislative map favors their retaining control of the legislature they won’t give Christie the reforms he is proposing. If the new map is one they think favors Republicans picking up at least one house of the legislature, the Dems are likely to be more cooperative with the governor.
Likewise, so long as there is a Christie for President buzz, the Democrats are motivated to stall on his agenda. Their stalling weakens Christie’s resume of accomplishment if he does run for president. If he runs, they won’t have to deal with him. They don’t know how tough Kim Guadagno is, but they don’t think she is as tough as, or as talented a politician as Christie is.
There is not likely to be any movement on Christie’s reform agenda before the November election, unless we get a new legislative map that is a clear Republican gerrymander. That is not going to happen.
Regardless of the map, Christie will make this election a statewide race. Every district will be a race between Christie and his legislative running mates vs. the Democratic legislative candidates. The governor will spend the summer and fall on the campaign trail throughout New Jersey with the power of incumbency. The election will be a referendum on Christie’s reform agenda.
If Christie pulls off another improbable statewide victory by winning both the Senate and the Assembly, turning blue jersey red, his presidential prospects will soar. The clamour for him to run for president will become a national demand. If he can turn the governor’s office over to Kim Guadagno with a Republican legislature to enact the reform agenda he can declare that he has succeeded in turning Trenton upside down and that he is accepting the call to save our country from another four years of Obama.
Should the Democrats retain control of both houses of the legislature and retain or expand their margin of majority, Christie’s national prospects become more complicated. On one hand a statewide defeat would hurt Christie’s national prospects on the top of the national ticket. On the other hand he might personally conclude that with the legislature safely in the hands of the Democrats for another 10 years that he has turned Trenton as upside down as it is going to get. In that case, the Vice Presidency might not look so bad if the thinks the eventual GOP nominee in 2012 has a chance to beat Obama.
I don’t see anything happening with Christie’s reform agenda until after the November election, nor do I see the Christie for President buzz going away or getting louder before the November election.
More from my site
Higher Prices At The Pump? Trenton Democrats Have A Plan For That
Trenton Democrats Keep Underestimating Christie
Democrats need to move on appointments
Double Dose of Bad News For Buono
Governor Christie: You need a Trenton to English dictionary to understand Democrats
Unions To Dems: Shut Up About Port Authority Toll Hikes
Trenton Democrats Need To Get Busy On Christie’s “Tool Kit”
The Democratic Map Will Be Approved Today
Gopal: When Dems Take Over Monmouth County, Republicans Will Never Win Statewide In New Jersey- AshBritt CEO Deflates Buono’s Hopes Of Making Clean Up A Campaign Issue
Art,
Speaking of new legislative map–do you have any knowledge how the 12th is going to look?
After last nights performance with Senator Jennifer Beck at the Manalapan Library–you can have her in your district vs. Kyrillos.
Here you have a woman who I believed in. Campaigned for when she was running for Assembly in my district in 2005. Yet she refuses to answer my question in a Q&A session at the county library.
She campaigns against “double-dippers” yet when I wanted to bring up the question regarding the sheriff’s department–she wouldn’t speak to me about it. I was told I can have a meeting after the meeting with her–but it was not to be discussed in public–really??? I don’t operate like that. I told one of her aides “no deal.”
According to ELEC forms on data universe, 94% of her special interest money comes from outside her district. Special interests such as the NJEA, PBA, and shockingly Solomon Dwek. I will be reminding her very soon that WE the constituents of the 12th Legislative District ARE HER SPECIAL INTERESTS!!
Art-
“I don’t think the Democrats behavior is confusing at all. They are doing what they always do; protecting the status quo and hoping to find ways to preserve the troughs from which they and their friends are swilling.”
As a Monmouth County Republican, how can you make this statement with a straight face? Lillian Burry and the rest of the “Club” have set the standard for protecting the status quo and finding ways to preserve the troughs from which they and their friends are swilling. But I guess even you are not immune from Monmouth Republican hypocrisy.
There is enough hypocrisy to go around for both parties the one problem is that the Democrats invented the word.
Time for new blood all through the ranks, the current crop, on both sides, are failures.
Brian,
Your so correct. We need new, exciting blood. the only Republican I would vote for again is John Curley. Tom Arnone–the jury is still out; he’s relatively new–but I did e-mail him information and he never got back to me. That’s not very promising if I must say.
Interesting analysis, Art….
My comment.
It is as good as it is going to get for Christie in NJ.
His election was about the rejection of Corzine, not about his charisma. During the campaign, he had no viable plan to build the NJ economy and his actions have not provided anything more than halting the tide. Of course, that is better than it was, but not enough of what is needed.
Part of that plan should be to get a new legislature.
But he can’t – regardless of whether he has any control over it or it.
The County Republicans have created a can’t win situation that they engineered in prior years. There is no abundance of exciting candidates who are ready to slash taxes in a major way. Nor would the committeemen ever select these people. That nonsense has kept many good people from becoming interested in running. So, this year, they will promote another slate of me-too challengers with no chance (with a few exceptions).
It is too late to do anything for 2011. We are stuck with the wrong legislature – at least in the foreseeable future.
The timing might be right for Christie on a national scale but the timing is wrong for Christie in NJ.
l have voted in every election, including school boards, primaries,etc since l have been eligible. l feel it is the least l can do for all those who gave their lives so we can vote.
However, am beginning to think that this year l will honor their legacy by boycotting this years slate of retreads. To vote for the d’s would be a dishonor to their sacrifice so sitting it out might be the solution.
These–incumbents on both sides–are the ones who got us in this mess and in good conscience l cannot pull the lever for any of them, including our “you tube” Governor, whom l voted twice for.
Brian,
Your sentiment is understood.
However, you might want to consider a different action than just sitting out a useless election.
If your county supports another useless candidate, you have some options.
If you have any challengers in your Primary, you might want to consider voting for him, regardless of his qualifications. The need is to break the monopoly of those who are destroying sanity. The bosses are no longer entitled to unbridled power. They are no longer entitled to blind support.
In the general election, if the choices are useless, then vote for a third party. That action probably won’t help anything in the short term, but it would encourage challengers and might help educate a few more soldiers for the future.
It is not a solution, but an action that might be a little more valuable than merely sitting back and watching everything fall apart.
Virtually no elected official at he local, County,State,or National level or worth the powder to blow them to hell!