New Jersey Gov. Christie, seeking revenue, ends 40-year tax agreement with Pa.

TRENTON, N.J. — New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is scrapping an agreement between New Jersey and Pennsylvania that has allowed taxpayers to pay income tax in the state where they live, not where they work. The Christie administration on Friday notified officials in Harrisburg, Pa., that the governor was nixing the agreement. That means wealthy Pennsylvania… Read the rest of this entry »

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If Romney takes Pennsylvania he doesn’t need Ohio. Here’s why it could happen that way

By Stuart J. Moskovitz

There’s a serious flaw in all of the polls which is misrepresenting the current state of the presidential race.  As Dick Morris has pointed out, the pollsters all assume the demographic turnout will be the same as it was in 2008.  There are many reasons why this is simply not going to happen.  Many African-American preachers have already indicated that Obama hasn’t done anything for black people and that his views on gay marriage do not match their own.  They will not be lining up the busses to take their parishioners to the polls.

Let’s see what this means. At this point, it is fairly well predicted that if Romney takes Pennsylvania, he takes the election.

This seems clear from looking at RealClearPolitics’ current calculations.  Giving Romney Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa, and Florida, which is not unreasonable, Romney needs only 26 more electoral votes. If you give him Virginia, where he is slightly ahead, he needs 13.  He can do this with Ohio.  He can do this with Wisconsin and New Hampshire.  He can do this with Pennsylvania.  Few people believe he will win Pennsylvania, where he is trailing by 5% in some polls.  (Susquehanna Polling — which is very accurate in Pennsylvania — did a poll October 18 showing Romney up by 4%.  For some reason, RealClearPolitics is using its October 4 poll showing Obama ahead by 2%.)  In 2008, in Philadelphia, the mother lode for Democratic votes and a city with a majority-African-American population, approximately 688,000 people voted in the 2008 election.  Of these, 574,930 voted for Obama.  In 2010, however, when the Republicans swept to power in the House — due to disenchantment with Obama, primarily — only 422,283 people voted in Philadelphia.

Granted, there are always fewer votes in a senatorial/gubernatorial election than in a presidential election, but this is a dramatic drop-off.  To begin with, I should point out that Republican Tom Corbett won the gubernatorial race, garnering 54.49% of the vote statewide.  In their final polls, no pollster had the Republican above 52%.  In other words, they all underestimated him by nearly 2.5%.

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Quinnipiac: Obama leading in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

90% of likely voters have made up their minds in the crucial swing states

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