Christie Reverses the Gender Gap

Women Approve of Christie More Than Men Do

Public Workers Give Governor High Marks

Guv Christie accepting Sea Bright Mayor Dina Long’s endorsement. Photo by Serena DiMaso. Taken with Tom Arone’s phone

Governor Chris Christie still looks to be cruising to reelection, according to a Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press poll released this morning.

Christie’s overall approval rating is 63%, according to Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  The governor’s ratings are slightly stronger among registered voters, 65% of whom approve of his job performance. 86% of Republicans, 64% of Independents and 52% of give Christie high marks.

On the stump, Christie has been promoting how he has reduced the size of government in New Jersey since taking office. “There’s over 5000 fewer employees in state government today than when I took office, and over 20,000 fewer government employees across the state,” Christie says in a campaign video, “We promised to make government smaller, we’ve made government smaller.”  Despite these facts, 54% of public workers approve of Christie’s job performance compared to 37% who do not.

Since Superstorm Sandy, there has been virtually no “gender gap” in Christie’s approval ratings as measured by the Monmouth Poll.  In a poll released on September 27, 2012, one month before Sandy, men approved of Christie’s performance by a 61%-31% margin. Women approved by only 6 points, 47%-41%.  In Murray’s first post Sandy poll on Christie, in December, the gender gap closed. 68% of men and 66% of women approved in December.  The trend continued in the February poll with 69% of men and 70% of women approving of the governor.  In today’s poll, the gender gap exceeded the statistical margin of error for the first time since Sandy, with the surprising result that women approve of Christie more than men do. Women approve by a 65%-26% margin and men approve by 61%-27%.

If Murray polled a head to head match up between Christie and the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor, State Senator Barbara Buono, he did not report the results today. He did report that 59% of registered voters think that Christie deserves a second term.

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Do New Jersey Voters Care About Menendez Scandal?

Which poll to believe?

New Jersey voters  either strongly disapprove of New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez and think he’s dishonest, or they really don’t care much about the news of his ongoing scandals, depending on which poll you trust.

This morning the Quinnipiac Polling Institute released a poll that indicates that Menendez approval rating is down 15 points in one month. By a 44%-28% margin, New Jersey voters say he is not honest or trustworthy. Menendez’s approval numbers are upside down with 41% of voters disapproving of him and only 36% approving.

Just a week ago, Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press released a poll with the headline Sen Menendez Unaffected By Donor Scandal . The Monmouth/APP poll says that 68% of New Jersey voters had heard about “the donor scandal” but that only 24% thought the senator was involved in any wrongdoing. The poll said that 65% either hadn’t formed an opinion or hadn’t heard enough.  The Monmouth/APP poll said that Menendez’s approval ratings werre similar to prior ratings over the last two years. Last week, 41% of the voters approved of the job Menendez is doing and only 28% disapproved.

Menendez has been in Afghanistan and out of the news for most of the week between poll releases.

Usually the Monmouth and Quinnipiac polls report consistent results, within a point or 2 and within the margin of error. But this is the second time within the last year that there has been such a large disparity between the two respected independent pollsters.  Last April, Monmouth reported Governor Christie’s approval ratings were 11 points lower than Quinnipiac reported a week prior.  There was so much talk about the different numbers last April that Monmouth Polling Director Patrick Murray wrote a column defending his work and criticising Quinnipiac.

This time around, Murray’s poll release is flawed.  His numbers are fine.  It’s his spin, which determines how most news outlets report the poll, that is the problem.

What was asked and when was it asked?

Read the rest of this entry »

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Patrick Murray: “New Jersey voters are probably a little more savvy than reporters”

Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray is a “go to guy” for journalists looking for expert opinions and analysis on New Jersey politics.

Philadelphia Inquirer reporter Matt Katz called Murray to ask him why Christie’s approval numbers are so high when many voters used the pejoratives “bully” and “arrogant” when asked to use one word to describe the Governor and when Jersey mainstream media pundits so frequently criticise Christie’s manners.  Katz mentioned The Star Ledger’s Tom Moran, Inquirer opinion writers, and the Courier-Post editorial board.  He could have included most of the Statehouse press corp, save Gannett’s Bob Ingle and the Capitol Quckies crew.

Murray’s answer was Christieesque in its refreshing honesty: “Part of the issue is, voters of New Jersey are probably a little more savvy than reporters.”

Who talks to more reporters and voters in New Jersey than Murray?  His is an expert opinion.

“Ouch,” wrote Katz, who often writes critically of Christie.

Credit Katz for including Murray’s quote in his article.  If you start seeing Ben Dworkin’s name in The Star Ledger more than Murray’s, you’ll know Chrisite was right when he called famously called Moran, the editorial page editor, “the thinnest skinned guy and America.”

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