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LD 11…..2013

By Matthew Gould, cross posted at Republican Out Of The Blue

It is no secret that the Republican field in New Jersey’s 11th legislative district ran a tough campaign this election cycle with mail pieces, some controversial, going out almost daily leading up to the election (I had the pleasure of getting 2 in one day), robocalls from everyone and their mother, door knocking and lots of fundraising. But the question is why? Why are these three popular incumbents running like their seat depends on it when the 2011 election pretty much became a lock when the Democrats announced their field?

The answer is 2013. The Republicans were 1% worried about 2011 and 99% worried about 2013

The next time New Jerseyians vote for a new state legislature is 726 days from now for those who are counting. By then the London Summer Olympics will have ended, we will hopefully still be here (granted the end of the world predictions are wrong), if all goes accordingly we will have a new President of the United States and Chris Christie will be so popular there wont even be a need for an election in New Jersey. Well that last one is a bit far fetched. But there is still a question as to why the District 11 incumbents are so concerned with 2013 and I think I have an answer for you.

Background

  • The redrawn 11th district gave democrats a voter registration advantage over Republicans of approximately 10,000, removing Republican heavy Wall Twp. and Rumson from the district and adding the Democrat saturated towns of Asbury Park, Neptune, Ocean and Long Branch. 
  • Asbury Park, Neptune and Ocean are home to a large number of minority voters. 
  • In 2009 Chris Christie won the new LD-11 65%-35% over unpopular incumbent John Corzine.
  • The Democrat map, which was chosen by Alan Rosenthal, the 11th member of the redistricting team put the 11th district in play.

What does this all mean? After the map was drawn parties only had a limited number of days to recruit candidates to run for office. The Republican Party had the clear advantage in the process as the LD-11 looped three Republican incumbents together, all with established support and campaign structures. The Democrats on the other hand were rushed to choose candidates, all of whom would be running for the first time. On top of that the Republicans had candidates in numerous other districts, most notable, 1,2,7,14,18 and 38 who were able to divert the resources of the Democrat State Committee Unions and big democratic donors from seats like LD-11 that could be possible pick ups to seats they needed to save.

 

In 2013 Gov. Christie will be running for re-election and although there is no clear cut Democratic challenger there is a chance Newark mayor Cory Booker will be nominated. Bookers possible nomination plays a big roll in the outcome of the Legislative election in D-11 come 2013. Why so much emphasis on Cory Booker? Mr. Booker has become somewhat of a popular national figure having appeared on The Oprah Winfrey show with Facebook founder Mark Zuckerburg to receive a $100 million dollar grant for Newark Public schools, he is everywhere on twitter, pioneering the way politicians use the popular social media site, his nationwide appeal opens the door for large amounts of out of state money, especially in an off year gubernatorial election where the democrats will be looking to take back the governors mansion and the NJEA will work tirelessly and spend millions of dollars of membership dues to take Christie out and Mr. Booker is a very popular minority politician.

 

I will be willing to bet a large amount of money that the democrats will be targeting the 11th district in 2013 not only as a possible pick up in the Legislature but for big democratic turn out in the gubernatorial election. This would hold especially true if Cory Booker were to get the nomination. The New Jersey democrats look at Cory Booker as an Obama type politician; charismatic, excellent communicator and campaigner and a candidate that will spark enthusiasm among minority voters. This spells possible trouble for the Republicans in district 11 come 2013, especially in towns with a large minority population, Asbury Park, Neptune and Long Branch, all of which are additions for to the 11th district for Casagrande who has very little name recognition in these towns. Mary Pat Angelini has had Asbury Park, Neptune and Long Branch in her district for sometime now so she has a slight advantage when it comes to name recognition especially since most of the towns she had not represented in the old 11th district are Republican strong holds.

 

This leads us back to the 2011 mid-term elections and the tough campaign the LD-11 Republican team   ran. I don’t think it is because they were worried about their democratic challengers in this election cycle but because of their concern for 2013.

 

None of this is set in stone, a lot can still change in 726 days. It is not known who the Democrats will nominate as their gubernatorial candidate (Republicans get to sit back and watch the bickering for once), the Republicans will not let such a large portion of Monmouth County, which produced a large plurality for Christie in 2009 fall by the wayside, money will flow in from out of state sources for both parties and the Republicans may have an ally in the White House come 2013, especially if Mitt Romney, a close Christie ally, gets the republican nomination and wins the White House and Gov. Christies popularity continues to rise as the state see’s results from his policies. Heck, there are hundreds of factors that will play into 2013 but it seems to me like Beck, Angelini and Casagrande are taking nothing for granted. A move, I think will pay off in 2 years.

 

Posted: November 10th, 2011 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , | 4 Comments »