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Christie Commutes Brian Aitken’s Sentence To Time Served

By Art Gallagher

This afternoon at 4:30 Governor Chris Christie signed a commutation order of Brian Aitken’s prison sentence of seven years for illegal possesion of firearms to time served effective today.  The Governor order that Aitken be released from prison as soon as administratively possible.

According to numerous news reports, Aitken had purchased his firearms legally while a resident of Colorado and was transporting them pursuant to instructions he had received from the New Jersey State Police while moving back to his native New Jersey when he was arrested in January of 2009.  The judge presiding over Aitken’s trial did not allow the jury to consider the exemption to New Jersey’s firearm carry law for transporting weapons between residences.

Christie’s commutation order can be viewed here.

There is a statement of the Free Brian Aitken facebook page that reads as follows:

It’s official—Governor Christie has commuted Brian’s sentence and he will be home before Christmas!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU everybody. If it wasn’t for your letters, phone calls and support this never would have happened. What a joyous Christmas this will be. Thank again from the bottom of our hearts. Brian Aitken has been freed!
Posted: December 20th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Brian Aitkin, Chris Christie | Tags: , | 3 Comments »

Chris Chrisite: The Day of Reckoning is Here

By Art Gallagher

Governor Chris Christie was featured prominently in the 60 MINUTES segment, State Budgets: Day of Reckoning last night.  See InTheLobby for a synopsis and links to the broadcast and extra footage.

There were two key phrases Christie used that caught my attention when talking about the state’s pension and retiree health care obligations. 1) Christie said that most of the general public is incredulous that there are still people still getting pensions.  Most of us have 401K’s that have been hammered and we don’t know how we are going to fund our retirements. 2) Christie said, as I have heard him say before, that while public employees are up in arms now, if he doesn’t take the necessary actions to reform the pension and benefits system, it won’t exist in 10 years.

I hope the second comment is not an indication that Christie is going to try to save the pension and benefits system.  It is beyond saving and it is not appropriate to try.

As Christie’s two least favorite conservatives (besides Sarah Palin), Paul Mulshine and Rick Merkt wrote in September, if the state pension system was a private pension system the federal government would have shut it down already.

If the federal government is not going to do the right thing regarding the insolvent state pension systems throughout the county, New Jersey and Chris Christie should lead the way.  Scrap the pension system.  Distribute the money in the system equitably to its beneficiaries’ retirement accounts and let’s move on.  Set up 401K type retirement programs for government workers and retirees.

The private sector has already handled this crisis and have given the states a model for how to do it. It’s not fair and it won’t be pretty, but it has to be done.  All we need is a leader with the courage to do it. 

I believe Chris Christie is that leader.  I hope I am right.

Posted: December 20th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Chris Christie, Economy | Tags: , , | 9 Comments »

Christie Throws NJN A Lifeline

Christie Administration Takes Action to Move Forward Transition of New Jersey Network

Governor signs NJN transition legislation, names new authority members, suspends employee layoffs

Trenton, NJ – Moving forward with the next steps in securing the future for public broadcasting in New Jersey, Governor Christie today took several actions aimed at carrying out the Administration’s goal of transitioning New Jersey Network into an independent broadcast entity that will continue to serve a New Jersey-centric programming mission, without taxpayer subsidy. 

 

These steps include: the signing of the New Jersey Public Broadcasting System Transfer Act; the direct appointment of three members to the reconstituted New Jersey Public Broadcasting Authority, as provided for in the Act; and, the temporary suspension of layoffs for NJN employees while the transition process develops.

 

“Today, we are taking the next steps to secure the future of New Jersey public television as an independent public media organization able to stand on its own without any continuing taxpayer subsidy,” said Governor Christie.  “In addition to our work already underway, these actions today pave the way for New Jersey focused programming to continue uninterrupted while New Jersey Network’s transition to a free-standing institution is completed.”

 

Governor Christie signed S-2406, the New Jersey Public Broadcasting System Transfer Act, a bill modeled on the Christie Administration’s proposal submitted to the legislature in September to accomplish the conversion of New Jersey Network from a government body to an independent entity, either to a non-profit corporation or through an agreement with an existing public broadcasting entity.

 

The Department of Treasury will be responsible for implementing the law, aspects of which is already underway, including:

·         compiling an inventory of the authority’s and foundation’s assets and liabilities;

·         identifying the methods or mechanisms required to transfer assets and liabilities;

·         receiving and approving proposals for the transfer of any or all of the authority’s or foundation’s assets; and

·         assuring that the successor to NJN can fulfill the responsibilities of a maintaining a New Jersey-focused public broadcasting operation.

In addition, Governor Christie today named the following three individuals to serve on the New Jersey Public Broadcasting Authority, effective immediately:

 

·         Treasurer Andrew Sidamon-Eristoff

·         John Inglesino, Rockaway, New Jersey

·         Anthony Della Pelle, Morristown, New Jersey

S-2406 provides for the current membership of the Authority to be sunset and reconstituted.  These appointments represent the three direct appointments authorized by the Governor under the new statute.  Two additional members will be appointed to provide for the remaining membership, one by the Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-Gloucester/Cumberland/Salem) and one by the Assembly Speaker Sheila Y. Oliver (D-Essex/Passaic).

                                                                                                

Finally, Governor Christie also announced that the layoff plan for NJN employees, initiated in September in accordance with existing collective bargaining agreements, Civil Service Commission rules and regulations, and with the goals of moving NJN from a government body to an independent entity, will be temporarily suspended to provide for the continued temporary operation of NJN while the transition is completed.

                                                                   

Senate sponsors of the legislation are Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-Gloucester/Cumberland/Salem) and Joseph Kyrillos Jr. (R-Monmouth) and in the Assembly it was sponsored by Assemblymembers Lou Greenwald (D-Camden), Alex DeCroce (R-Morris and Passaic) and Upendra Chivukula (D-Somerset/Middlesex).  

 

Posted: December 17th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Chris Christie, Press Release | Tags: , | Comments Off on Christie Throws NJN A Lifeline

Governor Chris Christie Announces Solution to Keep Standardbred Racing at the Medowlands

Trenton, NJ – Governor Chris Christie today announced a break-through agreement to keep live Standardbred racing at the Meadowlands beginning in January via a secured short-term financing plan to bridge the gap to a potential long-term solution that will make the Meadowlands racetrack a privately run, self-sustaining venture without taxpayer subsidies.

 

The agreement meets the Governor’s foremost requirement that operating and purse subsidies for Standardbred racing come to an end.   To ensure that racing at the Meadowlands can continue uninterrupted on its January schedule, the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority (NJSEA) will extend operations, secured by simulcast racing revenues, through only March 31, with no costs being absorbed by state taxpayers.

 

In the meantime, the Standardbred Breeders and Owners Association (SBOA) or its designee will be guaranteed exclusive rights to negotiate a $1 per-year lease for the Meadowlands racetrack for up to five years, with a renewal option.  If, at the end of March a lease agreement and self-sustaining operating plan is not in place, all parties agree that the NJSEA will suspend standardbred racing at the Meadowlands Racetrack, with the possible exception of the Hambletonian Meet in August 2011.

 

“It has been my goal all along to keep horse racing alive in New Jersey and at the Meadowlands with a renewed, financially-sound business model that meets the fiscal realities faced today by both the horse racing industry and the state,” Governor Christie said.  “Given the economic realities, my first interest and priority lies with taxpayers of New Jersey and ensuring the future of the sport is no longer reliant on millions of dollars in subsidies year after year.  Today, we have reached a mutually beneficial agreement for the near term, and a framework for a long-term solution to move the industry forward on an independent and self-sustaining financial foundation.”

 

“I am excited to find a way to operate the Meadowlands and several off-track wagering facilities in the private sector,” said Jeff Gural, a New York racetrack owner-operator and real estate developer.  “I think the structure that is being proposed will be well received by our customers, as we intend to produce the highest quality horse racing product in the standardbred industry.  I’ve been successful in Upstate New York at Tioga Downs, where we have been able to attract new and younger customers. We will use the same marketing strategies for the Meadowlands and hope for the same results.”

 

“We are thankful real estate entrepreneur and harness racing enthusiast Jeff Gural came to our aid during the final stretch of discussions with the Christie Administration,” Tom Luchento, president of the SBOA, said.  “The deal with the Governor to save Standardbred racing at Meadowlands will provide our industry a lifeline and give us time to implement innovative changes that will foster self-suffiency.  The time is now for the State of New Jersey and Meadowlands Racetrack to regain their status as the world’s premiere standardbred racing venue.”

 

All parties involved have agreed that the state will no longer subsidize harness racing at the Meadowlands.  If a long-term lease agreement and operating plan for self-sufficiency is not reached by March 31, 2011, all parties agree that a good faith effort will have been made by the standardbred industry and the Christie Administration to reach an agreement and avoid closure of the Meadowlands Racetrack.

 

The state’s short-term funding for the first quarter of 2011 operations will be guaranteed by the SBOA’s pledge of its right to simulcasting revenue at the Meadowlands from April 1, 2011, until the state recoups its costs.

 

Among the lease parameters agreed to today:

 

• The NJSEA will assign up to four off-track-wagering (OTW) locations, including Bayonne (but not Woodbridge), all of which would operate contingent on private operation of the Meadowlands Racetrack.

 

• The OTW locations would pay the NJSEA 10 percent of net OTW earnings.

 

• There will be no ongoing subsidies for purses or racing operations.

 

Posted: December 17th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Chris Christie, Horse Racing Industry, Press Release | Tags: , | 1 Comment »

Christie To Make Announcement Regarding Standardbred racing at the Meadowlands

By Art Gallagher

Governor Christie’s office has called a press conference for 3PM to announce a “significant development concerning Standardbred racing at the Meadowlands”

Bob Jordan at Capital Quickies is reporting that a deal has been made with Jeffrey Gural, the owner of two New York horse tracks, to lease the Meadowlands Racetrack.

Posted: December 17th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Horse Racing Industry | Tags: , , | Comments Off on Christie To Make Announcement Regarding Standardbred racing at the Meadowlands

Governor Chris Christie – “It is extraordinarily important that we all stand up for the principles we believe in…”

***

 

TRANSCRIPT

 

GOVERNOR CHRISTIE:

 

Lastly, it’s important to note here as well, that this is the product of compromise. Now, compromise can be reached in a variety of different ways, through a variety of different paths, but I want to thank the Senate President and the Speaker and the Minority Leader of the Senate and of the Assembly for traveling on this journey to the compromise with me. It is extraordinarily important that we all stand up for the principles we believe in, but also recognize that we are sent here to get the work done that the people have sent us here to do. Mayors, council people, have been crying out for this reform for a long time. And I suspect that if myself, the Speaker, and the Senate President along with the minority leaders had told you back in January of 2010 that by December of 2011, we would have a 2% hard cap on property tax levies, and a 2% hard cap on interest arbitration awards, you probably would have told us we were crazy. This is the product of people standing up for their principles, listening to the people who voted for us, and compromise where compromise is needed. The last part which I forgot, is this mirrors the 2% levy cap in respect that pension and healthcare benefits are excluded from the cap. However, the other commitment that we have made to each other and all of this have said this repeatedly over time, is that when we return in January to our work that we are going to get pension and health benefit reform benefit done. Each one of these things is a building block to finally controlling property taxes in New Jersey. We’ve got the levy cap, we’re dealing with interest arbitration, we have some other tool kit items that we’re going to have to turn to as well and then we’re going to turn to pension and health benefits as well. We’ve made that commitment to each other both privately and publically. So again, I thank the leaders of the Legislature for their willingness to work with me, their willingness to compromise, and to come to an agreement that makes sense for the people in the state. There’s nothing more important than getting property taxes under control in this state and changing the system. And I think for the first time in a long time, we have taken meaningful steps towards doing that.

 

Posted: December 10th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Chris Christie, Press Release, Property Tax Tool Kit, Property Taxes, Tool Kit | Tags: , , | Comments Off on Governor Chris Christie – “It is extraordinarily important that we all stand up for the principles we believe in…”

Christie Considering A Pardon Of Brian Aitken

By Art Gallagher

Most of the mainstream news reported from Governor Chris Christie’s press conference yesterday has to do with the progress being made on the “tool kit” of municipal government reforms that will enable local officials to reduce the cost of government and live within the 2% property tax increase cap that the State government passed last summer.

Thanks to the Star Ledger’s Paul Mulshine for reporting that Christie also acknowledged that he is considering a pardon of Brian Aitken, the young New Jersey man serving seven years in prison for transporting guns he purchased legally and in a method that he had been instructed to transport them by the New Jersey State Police.

The news reports of of Aitken’s plight make a compelling case that a gross injustice has been committed.   As a media skeptic and critic, I wonder what facts are missing from the stories.   If the stories are reasonably accurate there is no question that Aitken should be released, his record cleared and he should go on to live the productive life he was apparently leading prior to his arrest.

I trust Christie to review Aitken’s case quickly and to make a just determination.

Posted: December 10th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Brian Aitkin, Chris Christie | Tags: , | 1 Comment »

Governor Chris Christie Strengthens and Improves Tool Kit Bill to Stop Sick and Vacation Benefit Abuse

Conditional Veto Expands and Strengthens Bill Provisions to Better Protect Taxpayers and Provide Relief for Strained Local Budgets

 

 

Trenton, NJ – Governor Chris Christie today issued a conditional veto of Senate Bill 2220, a tool kit bill and element of the Christie Reform Agenda, to strengthen and improve upon the bill and more effectively stop the abuse of sick and vacation benefits, or supplemental compensation. While the bill accomplishes a large part of Governor Christie’s reform goals for these benefits, the Governor has identified provisions in the bill that can be improved upon to further assist strained local budgets and help meet the reality of Cap 2.0.

 

“This bill represents a good-faith continuation of the public employee benefits reform I signed into law earlier this year that will serve as a critical cost-savings tool for municipalities and school boards that must live within our property tax cap. I applaud the bill sponsors and the legislature for taking action on this critical reform measure. By working together, as we have in the preceding days, we are showing New Jerseyans and the country that real change is possible when to come together to work on real, meaningful solutions, in the public’s best interest,” said Governor Christie. “The changes I’ve put forward for this legislation make common sense and important improvements to strengthen the bill’s provisions and more effectively curb the unreasonable and abusive public employee payouts that come at the public’s expense.”

 

Governor Christie urged the legislature to act quickly to adopt the substantive changes in the conditional veto, and continue building upon the progress that has been made on critical elements of the Christie Reform Agenda, including comprehensive reforms to the interest arbitration system announced today.

 

“In these difficult economic and budgetary times, New Jersey taxpayers can no longer be asked to foot the bill for a system that is rife with waste and abuse. Sick days provide time off for employees who are sick, and do not represent an additional form of compensation for employees who are fortunate enough to remain healthy. Whatever rationale once justified this type of abuse, the time has come for the practice to end,” added Governor Christie. “Those individuals who abuse the public trust must not be allowed to further exploit the system for their own enrichment. The changes identified by my Administration and addressed in this conditional veto go further to put an end to these practices. I urge the legislature to continue the important progress we’ve made in delivering real reform to the people of New Jersey by acting quickly to adopt these changes and providing an important element of the tool kit to local governments.”

 

Governor Christie’s Conditional Veto makes the following improvements to S-2220, to improve and strengthen the legislation, better protect taxpayers and provide even greater budgetary relief to municipalities:

  •  
    Strengthen the public trust by suspending supplemental compensation for any employee under indictment for a crime that involves or touches his or her public office, and mandate the forfeiture of any supplemental compensation if convicted;
  • Phase out the practice of distributing cash payouts for sick days by prohibiting supplemental compensation for sick days that accumulate after the effective date of the legislation for all state, local government and school district employees;
  • Require that sick days accrued prior to the effective date of this legislation be used before those days accrued after the effective date;
  • Expand to all current employees at any point during their employment, not just hires after the effective date of the bill in the twelve months before retirement, the requirement that a physician provide written verification for use of six or more consecutive sick days; and
  • Require that vacation days accrued prior to the effective date (those not subject to the one-year carry forward provision) of this legislation be used before those days accrued after the effective date (those subject to one-year carry forward restriction).
Posted: December 9th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Chris Christie, Press Release, Property Tax Tool Kit, Property Taxes, Tool Kit | Tags: , | Comments Off on Governor Chris Christie Strengthens and Improves Tool Kit Bill to Stop Sick and Vacation Benefit Abuse

Governor Chris Christie Reaches Bipartisan Agreement on Critical Tool Kit Measures, Long-Overdue Arbitration Reform Transforms System

With 12 Days Left in the Legislative Session, Governor Christie Praises Legislative Leadership for Working Together and Taking Action

 

Trenton, NJ – With just 12 days left in the legislative session, Governor Chris Christie has reached a bipartisan agreement to enact critical elements of the Christie Reform Agenda. Working together with Senate President Steve Sweeney, Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver, Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean and Assembly Minority Leader Alex DeCroce, the result is action on transformational, long-overdue interest arbitration reform that will provide municipalities with the help they need to keep property taxes down for New Jerseyans. 

 

As part of the Christie Reform Agenda, the Governor unveiled an aggressive plan to curb property tax costs through comprehensive arbitration reform. Arbitration reform, in addition to other pieces of the Reform Agenda, get at the root of the problem facing many local governments struggling to live within their means – ever-expanding operational costs. The Governor has been traveling the state since September, talking about the importance of enacting a tool kit of reforms to help local government leaders directly address cost drivers and manage within Cap 2.0 without adversely impacting core government services.  Since the introduction of these reforms in May, hundreds of mayors and local elected officials across political parties have voiced their support for the tool kit, and underscored the tool kit’s importance in helping them manage their local budgets.

 

“Today we have shown that once again by putting the interests of New Jersey’s hard working men and women first we can achieve real, sustainable reform. Building on the first steps we took to reduce property taxes with “Cap 2.0,” we are transforming the interest arbitration process and providing  a long-term solution that will help local governments keep property taxes down and costs under control,” said Governor Chris Christie. “New Jerseyans have waited a long time to see real reform happen in Trenton, which is why they deserve nothing less. Today’s agreement is a positive step in that direction, but we still have more work to do before the end of the year.

 

“There is no doubt that by going after the issues normally considered to be off limits politically, we are changing the conversation in New Jersey and getting results. Now we’re showing the rest of the country that if you work together on substantive solutions, you can change the way government works.  We’re just starting to turn Trenton upside down and I’m confident that if we keep this same pace and continue to work together on what matters, we’re going to be able to go even farther,” concluded Governor Chris Christie.

 

The Christie bipartisan agreement on interest arbitration reform mirrors the Governor’s call for a meaningful cap that matches the tax levy cap of 2.0.  This 2 percent cap will be applied to all salary items, such as across the board and cost of living increases, step increment payments and longevity pay. While pension and health costs are exceptions, as part of the Reform Agenda, the Governor has called for considerable measures to modernize and improve the pension and benefit system and has received assurances from Democratic leadership that these reforms will be passed in 2011.

 

Moreover, important to Governor Christie’s commitment to delivering meaningful and substantive reform, there will be no additional exceptions for non-salary economic terms moving forward. The agreement creates a prohibition on allowing non-salary economic issues to be arbitrated above the cap, unless already included in an existing contract. This is an important provision because arbitrators will no longer be able to create new cost items in successor contracts.

 

The agreement also creates fast track interest arbitration that will transform the system by establishing concrete deadlines to help accelerate the impact of the new cap.    

 

The Christie Bipartisan Agreement on Interest Arbitration Reform

 

·         Meaningful Cap 2.0 That Mirrors Tax Levy Cap.  Provides a meaningful cap of 2 percent that will be applied to all salary items, such as the cost of across the board and cost of living increases, step increment payments and longevity pay. 

 

·         No Exceptions for Additional Non-Salary Economic Terms Moving Forward. The agreement prevents arbitrators from awarding any new economic items moving forward. The agreement creates a prohibition on allowing non-salary economic issues to be arbitrated above the cap, unless already included in an existing contract.  All salary items are subject to a maximum 2 percent cap.  This is an important provision because arbitrators will no longer be able to create new cost items in successor contracts

 

·         Eliminate Accruing Labor Costs By Improving the Arbitration Process. The agreement transforms the system by putting in place concrete deadlines to help eliminate delays in the arbitration process, from contract negotiation to the receipt of the actual award.  Traditionally, once a contract expires, labor costs continue to mount until a new contact is reached.  Enforcing deadlines and speeding up the process will ensure timely implementation of new contracts and the cap on interest arbitration awards.

 

o    45 Day Fast Track on Arbitration. Establishes a concrete deadline of 45 days from the filing of a request for interest arbitration to the date of award without any extensions. Both parties may request interest arbitration on the day the contract expires and awards will be implemented on the same day.  All appeals must be decided within 30 days, if arbitrators do not comply with the 45 day deadline, they will be penalized.

o    Caps Arbitrator Pay.  The agreement will cap arbitrator compensation at $1,000 per day and $7,500 per case. Capping arbitrator pay will further incentivize speedy resolution of arbitration cases.

o    Increases Ethical Standards and Training for Interest Arbitrators.

o    Randomizes the Selection of Interest Arbitrators.

 

·         2011 Effect with 2014 Sunset.  The law takes effect on January 1, 2011 and is set to sunset on April 1, 2014.

 

·         Ensuring Responsible Implementation.  The agreement also creates a Task Force to examine the impact of interest arbitration reform and the effectiveness of the cap on restricting municipal spending.  The taskforce will study the impact of the cap on taxes, services, expenditures, public safety, recruitment, retention and professionalism.  The Governor will directly appoint four members and two members will be directly appointed by the Senate President and Assembly Speaker.  The Task Force will provide its recommendations no later than December 31, 2013.  

Posted: December 9th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Chris Christie, Press Release, Property Tax Tool Kit, Tool Kit | Tags: , , | 2 Comments »

2012: Will history be made or repeat itself?

By Art Gallagher

With Repubican Randy Altschuler’s concession on Tuesday to incumbent Congressman Tim Bishop in New York’s 1st congressional district, the 2010 midterm elections have come to a close.  Republicans picked up 63 seats while taking control of the House of Representatives, and picked up 6 seats in the U.S. Senate.

The 2010 midterms have frequently been compared to the 1994 midterms when Newt Gingrich lead the House GOP to pick up 54 seats, while Republicans picked up 8 U.S. Senate seats and controlled both houses of Congress for the first time since 1954.

With the midterms behind us pundits and political junkies are shifting their focus to the 2012 Presidential election. Many have pondered whether President Obama will move to the center ala Bill Clinton after the massive loss in the ’94 midterms, “triangulating” Republicans, Independents and their issues on his way to a scandal plaqued second term, or will Obama finish out his term like Jimmy Carter, dogged by a stagflation economy, unrest in the Middle East and challenged by the left in his own party.

My friend Alan Steinberg argues that Obama’s recent deal with Congressional Republicans to extend the Bush-era tax rates for two years ehances the President’s reelection prospects because of the likely improvement in the economy that will result.  Steinberg says that the far left wing of the Democratic party condeming Obama for the deal will also help him by making him look like a centrist. Steinberg says an Obama primary victory over a left wing opponent like Howard Dean would boost the President further with an aura of success and centrism.

Alan overlooks the historical fact that every incumbent President since Gerald Ford who faced a credible primary challenge won the primary but lost the general election.  Ford was challenged by Ronald Reagan in the 1976 GOP primary and lost the election to Jimmy Carter.  Carter was challenged in the 1980 Democratic party by Ted Kennedy and lost the election to Reagan.   George H.W. Bush was challenged by Pat Buchanan in the 1992 GOP primary and lost the election to Bill Clinton.

Taxes could well be the issue that dominates the 2012 election.  Just as George H.W. Bush’s broken “NO NEW TAXES” pledge cost him dearly with the Republican base that never revered him like they did Reagan, Obama’s broken pledge to raise taxes on the rich and redistribute wealth could yet cost him dearly with his Democratic base.  Just as Bush I was no Reagan, Obama may prove to be no Clinton. Clinton, despite moving away from his leftist base,  “felt their pain” in 1996. So far Obama’s message to “the professional left” is “you are a pain.”

Should a Democrat like Dean or Hillary Clinton really become a pain and challenge Obama in the primary he or she might argue that the Clinton era tax increases on the wealthy lead to a booming ecomony, the first balanced federal budget in memory and even a surplus. 

Of course such a Democrat will ignore the fact that the Clinton 1993 tax increases did not boost the economy as Democrats had expected it would.  The “Clinton boom” and balanced budgets didn’t occur until after 1997 when the Republican Congress lowered  the capital gains tax rates, added a child credit, lowered the death tax and increased the IRA exclusions.

There is another development on the horizon that might make the 2012 election look more like ’92 when Bill Clinton defeated Bush I, than like ’96 when Clinton was reelected over Bob Dole or like 1980 when Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter.

New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg might end up the 2012 version of H. Ross Perot, the billionaire businessman who ran for President as a third party candidate against Bush I and Clinton in 1992, capturing 19% of the popular vote, and many think Bush I a second term. 

Bloomberg sounded an a lot like a presidential candidate yesterday when he bashed both major political parties, Washington gridlock and offered a “centrist way” to fix America.  Perot built the Reform Party in 1996.  Bloomberg would embrace the No Labels movement of centrists that has been building a grassroots organization over the last year. No Labels will have a major event, their “official launch,” in New York of all places on Monday December 13.  The event will be simulcast in the Internet on Monday December 13.

The other factor making 2012 look like 1996 in my crystal ball is the Republican field of Presidential contenders. So far only New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has the charisma of a Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton or candidate Obama.  Christie says he’s not running.  I believe him. He will have his hands full in New Jersey in 2011, making the kind of national travel throughout the year that would be required to compete in the GOP primaries that start in February of 2012 very unlikely.  The rest of the  Republican field doesn’t have “it.”  They are reminiscent of Bush I, Bob Dole and John McCain.

In a head to head race of Obama vs a current Republican contender other than Christie, Obama would have to be favored at this point, assuming he keeps moving to the center.   If Bloomberg runs as a No Labels candidate and spends the $1.5 billion that has been speculated, history could be made rather than repeated.

Posted: December 9th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: 2012 Presidential Politics | Tags: , , , , , , | 4 Comments »