Monmouth GOP May Face Tougher Election Than Expected
By Art Gallagher
Throughout the spring and summer the conventional wisdom has been that the Monmouth GOP will not face serious challenges in legislative and county races of 2011. 2011 is supposed to be a “good Republican year.”
It still could turn out that way. Probably will. But MMM has learned that the Democrats think they have unexpected opportunities.
On the legislative level, the Trenton Democratic machine has taken interest in the new 11th district.
Back in April after the new legislative map was released the Democrats were scrambling to field a slate of candidates. No Democratic elected officials would challenge Republican incumbents Senator Jennifer Beck or Assemblywomen Caroline Casagrande and Mary Pat Angelini. Now the Democrats think the 11th is in play and will dedicate financial and human resources to elect Ray Santiago to the Senate and Marilyn Schlossbach and Vin Gopal to the Assembly.
Both sides fear that Independent Assembly candidate Dan Jacobson will draw votes away from them and could end up being a spoiler. In his column in last week’s triCityNews, Jacobson said that he expected to take votes from both sides and that he would need 20% of the voters to cast an uninformed protest vote for him in order to win a seat. Jacobson said he expects Beck, Casagrande and Angelini to prevail in November.
On the county level, the Democrats are planning a character assassination on Freeholder Lillian Burry. They will allege conflicts of interest on Burry’s part going back to her tenure as Mayor of Colts Neck and continuing in Freehold.
Game on.
More from my site
Randy Bishop Will Not Be An 11th District Assembly Candidate
Beck, Angelini, Pledge Gay Marriage Support- Democrats Mum On Schlossbach’s Replacement
Vin Gopal Threatens Legal Action Against MoreMonmouthMusings
Showdown at the Press editorial board!- Report: Gopal Considering Another Run For Assembly
Monmouth Dems Outraise Monmouth GOP
Casagrande’s Cowardice
“An Amazing Moment” 
Long Branch Mayor Adam Schneider Endorses Republicans Beck, Angelini and Casagrande
Not worried about the 11th. It is an interesting slate. a mix of conservatives and liberals and 3 women should kill on the female vote. All 3 are hard campaigners. I predict they win not with a landslide but with a comfortable margin. Dan Jacobson will not attract conservatives. he may siphon some social liberals away from the Dems but will have a minimal to no impact on this race.
I would point out that I said months ago that Lillian would have a tough fight. She has made to many political missteps over the past 3 years.
Anti-equality marriage leader Jennifer Beck and conservative Casagrande in a gay/lesbian friendly community, that can’t wait to extract revenge in November–sprinkle in public union members pissed off at them–FUHGETABOUTIT!!!!!!
Gays have 90 votes in Asbury Park. Not sure about Ocean Grove but I suspect the same.
That issue won’t have any impact on the race.
Dan Jacobson is the only fiscal conservative in the race (as best I can tell – I’m open to suggestions otherwise).
If the Tea Party folks want to maintain respectability then they better go for Jacobson.
If they do, the race is real and he has a chance to win.
Sidenote: Republicans are ignoring the 10,000 vote registration advantace of the Dems in the 11th, and that’s a mistake.
The last time Trenton/Norcross took an interest in the 11th was Doherty and Reilly vs Kean and Corodemus. They nearly knocked off the Republicans with over $2 million dollars, but remember that district was still Republican by registration.
Can Beck et. al. fend off a $2 million challenge, particularly if Jacobson grabs the Tea Party?
Better hope Dan wins.
Tommy,
The value of that registration advantage is suspect. Long Branch, Asbury and Neptune voters don’t come out in November except in Presidential years.
Long Branch and Asbury don’t have municipal elections in November, which contributes to the low turnout.
The Doherty/Reilly race vs Corodemus and Kean was funded by Corzine. His money won’t be in play this time. Trenton will spend some money on this race, but I don’t think they have Corzine type dollars to spend.
The Tea Party is not likely to be a factor in the 11th race, as only Casagrande fits with their ideology.
Dan will wake some people up, but unless he raises and spends some serious money, he will not be a factor.
Dan’s prediction that the R women will prevail looks good.
The Dems might make it interesting and force the R’s to spend some money defending the seats that otherwise would have gone to districts considered swing, like the 14th.
I’m more concerned about Burry than I am about the women of the 11th. Lillian could be in for a fight.
Who was at the top of the ballot the year of Doherty and Reilly v Kean and Corodemus?
If there was no bigger race at the top, then the Dems proved money alone can bring out the unlikely voters.
Justified Right said at 10:55 am on August 10th, 2011:
Who was at the top of the ballot the year of Doherty and Reilly v Kean and Corodemus?
If there was no bigger race at the top, then the Dems proved money alone can bring out the unlikely voters.
Corzine and Forrester
of course they are going after the incumbent, Lillian, who happens to head up the departments that are currently considered “superfluous” in these bad economic times, but in good times were in much demand, and are still supported/used more than ever by most residents: that would be Parks, Libraries, Historical Commission, Consumer Affairs,4-H, the Agriculture Board, Elections, Clerk, Sheriff, Prosecutor, the Greenspace programs, and others, a very large array of services to pay attention to..and, it is fact that she has steadfastly fought to improve all of them, while working tirelessly to preserve as much as possible from over-development, at the closing Fort, and to keep the equine industry, and our racetrack, as strong contributors to this county’s economy, and save as many jobs as possible.. under her watch, county tax rates remained stable, a feat in itself, and we still do get a lot for our county tax dollar, in this TRIPLE-A rated county.. it’s all they have, as typical of libs, (as Obama does), to just create class-warfare on someone who has worked hard to sustain a succesful small business, and done well in her life!!. it’s b.s.!. fortunately, however,Mallet is basically rather plain, not terribly bright or in- tune with real concerns, a typical enviro-left-winger, who voted in her Dem cronies the one year they were in charge, yet rails against the Reps. hiring people loyal to them!..more typical lib hypocrisy, which I believe, though it will likely be unpleasant, with nasty, false, and unproven innuendo and accusations, she will fail to unseat Lillian and fail to get herself re-elected- she honestly just hasn’t “cut the mustard” very productively in her 3 years in Freehold..why not come to the meetings from now to the election, and watch the show: dragging in complainers to support her claims, in hopes of a free headline, whining about the majority’s decisions, grasping at the tried and true”Club Monmouth” moniker of 6 years ago, etc.-you’ll see what I mean, get the picture, and vote accordingly!……..ps, the gals in 11 will prevail, too..even though Dan writes well, is funny, and will strike a cord with a few frustrated voters!
Wow…so Madame Burry reads AND posts on your site Art…very nice.
Next time. someone please ask Madame Burry if she still thinks her mentor, friend, confidant and long time associate, Art Goodwin is still “Colts Neck Royalty” as she described him after finding out he embezzled more than $300K from the taxpayers.
As the republicans are all for pointing out, isn’t it the company you keep that makes you what you are?
Where was Lillian while the Brookdale College financial scandal with Burnham and his chums on the board was happening, before it finally came to light ? What a surprise that must have been !
The Tea party will never endorse Jacobson.
While their movement is fusled by fiscal conservatism a majority are also social conservatives.
justifed is right about the impact of the Gay vote and (0 percent of them wouldn’t vote for a Republican any way.
I meant 90%.
Where was Lillian during the Sheriff’s Department pension scandal??? As one of several departments under her oversight, she has failed to denounce the fraud that has taken place to permit double-dipping.
She indeed is in for a fight for her political life!
anyone who knows Lillian knows she never blogs!.. it doesn’t take much thought/ skill to go on the county website and check out what dept’s the Freeholders each run: Lillian, for 6 years, has done a good job with Parks, Library and Public Services, period, plus the Fort re-alignment and other, actual initiatives.. Mallet has Human Services, read, entitlements, period.. it’d be nice if in today’s discourse we could finally get past picking at people personally, like a scab til it bleeds, and focus on their actual length of time in service, and performance.. like her or not, she has served well for many years in elective office in both Matawan and Colts Neck,and 6 yrs, as Freeholder.. Mallet lost once for Assembly, and has 3 frankly un-remarkable yrs. in Freehold, period..as for Brookdale, some people understand that Pres. Burnham let many Boards of Freeholders and the public down, and that all issues are being addressed..and, many people do not believe there is any “scandal” at the Sheriff’s ofc., they are still the only 5-star accredited facility for compliance in the country, so why not get off it?..in the end, it’s experience, dedication, and performance in ofc. that get my vote, not libel/slander and character assassination!
cute & LOL: “Everyone knows” that those Freeholder assignments are just ‘liasons’ to provide a single point of contact. Correct me if I am wrong but don’t *all* the Freeholders get a yes or no vote on matters before the Board ? Doesn’t get her, or any of the others, off the hook.
Look Lilian has two perception problems. Whether the perceptions are correct I will leave to others to decide.
Problem #1 She protects her cronys even when they screw up. Now in past times this might have been called loyalty and be an admired trait. In todays world it is viewed as bordering on corrupt and is a political liability.
#2 She is the enemy of the conservative/tea party darling John Curley (who always manages to appear as a white Knight who goes after corruption wherever he sees it).
Not making a judgment just laying out the problem. This is why she will have a tough election.
To Cute and LOL:
Hate to beat a dead horse here, but when are people such as yourself going to wake up to see there is indeed a problem at the Sheriff’s Department.
You have correction officers doubling there salaries. I am not saying its scandalous on the part of the correction officers–they are indeed earning their keep by doing mandatory “doubles.” I blame that on insufficient staffing, poor management, and the sheriff agreeing to take on 287g prisoners (illegal aliens). These prisoners should be shipped to federal detention centers– NOT the county.
As for the “scandal.” There is ample proof that fraud was utilized to permit a high ranking sheriff’s officer to collect a pension and receive a salary simultaneously. This move on the part of the former sheriff is currently under investigation. Current Sheriff Golden shares some of the blame on this matter by allowing this high ranking officer to remain in office for an additional 13 months before moving him into an undersheriff spot. This move permits this man to do the same functions he did previously at a 5 thousand dollar instant raise.
I lambasted the sheriff for permitting his public information officer for having a take-home car, despite living a mere 4 miles away.
And more recently, a prosecutor’s employee had to quit her job because she was sexually terrorized (sexual harassment) by a sheriff’s employee assigned to court room “security.”
This woman subsequently quit her job and moved out of state. The employee was rightfully terminated. So please, do not tell me there are no problems at the Sheriff’s Department.
PS: Wait to the bill comes in when the correction officer’s contract is finally through the arbitration process. Each day that goes by, the amount owed these hard working men and woman get even larger. Their contract expired in 2008
TR I’m going to disagree with you on Tea Party and Social Conservatism.
While there are some Social Cons identifying as Tea Partiers, the Social Con is not there to press Social Con ideas.
The Libertarians are driving that bus. There is no way the Tea Party will refuse to back a true small government conservative based upon So Con issues.
That would mean the Tea Party is nothing more than the So Cons using a different name.
Tea Party is far from that.
Tommy,
You obviously have no idea who the most influential people in the Tea Party are. In fact I think you are clueless on the subject.
I know them very well. There has even been talk of a write in campaign against Jen Beck for her stance on socail issues. (btw I change my opinion on what happens in this race if that materializes). Now I think ultimatly they will decide to expend resources elswhere but they will certainly not be vigorous supporters and in fact I bet she is the low vote getter on the ticket.
Yes there are a fair number of libertarians but they are mere passengers on the bus.
Let me also say this that sometime after the 2012 presidential election it will be the tension b/t these two groups that will cause the movement to fade away.
Sage,
Nobody cares about your sour grape rantings because by now must people realize that they are a fantasy. (I will stop here before I overstep the bounds of decency Art expects on his blog).
TR,
You forget I was Tea Party before the rest of America boiled the water.
First, there is no “in” or “out” of the Tea Party because it isn not the Tea Party “Party.” The minute it becomes one I’m out along with all the rest of us.
Any true Tea Partier would scoff at your use of the words “influential people in the Tea Party.” Scoff!
We don’t have leaders. We are bound only by a philosophy of small government.
You are predicting a fight between libertarians and social cons “to come?”
Did you miss the 2010 elections? That fight was already had and won by we libertarians, who of course are the genesis of the concept of conservatism.
Tommy just one question.
Is the weather nice on your planet