Who will get squeezed?
Now that we know for sure that NJ will lose a congressional seat, speculation will run rampant over which two incumbents will be pushed into running against each other when the new district lines are drawn.
Redistricting has historically been an incumbent protection plan. With one incumbent sure to go, barring a retirement or a primary upset, there will be two incumbents facing off against each other in the 2012 general election.
Some incumbents have more clout than others. Seniority matters, as does money. Newly elected Jon Runyan is the logical odd man out based upon seniority. However, if New Jersey’s population has grown in the southern part of the state as many believe (those census numbers will be released in February) Runyon might be sparred. Runyan could find himself up against Rob Andrews or Chris Smith. Or maybe, if Runyan’s district in combined with Smith’s or Andrews’, the former NFL star will run for U.S. Senate against Robert Menendez.
The next most junior member of the NJ delegation is Leonard Lance of the 7th district who was first elected in 2008. In the 2000 redistricting parts of the 6th (Frank Pallone) and 7th were swapped to protect Pallone and then incumbent Mike Ferguson. That’s how Plainfield in Union County ended up in Pallone’s 6th. There has been some speculation that 6 and 7 will be combined, pitting Lance and Pallone against each other.
Such a scenario could make for an interesting GOP primary, as Anna Little has already announced that she is running against Pallone. Would Little run a primary against Lance? As good as a Lance-Little contest would be for blog traffic, Pallone’s seniority and his war chest will probably keep him safe from an incumbent.
A Rush Holt (12) vs Leonard Lance contest is possible as their districts border each other and parts of Holt’s 12th were moved into Ferguson’s 7th in the 2000 incumbent protection plan.
If northern districts are combined, like Pascrell and Garrett or Pascrell and Frelinghuysen, well that would just be boring for a Central Jersey blog.
Who do you think will be the odd man out?
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who’s had the most serious PRIMARY challenges from within their own party,say, the past 3 cycles: I believe, not living there, that Garrett, as the more conservative of the lot, has beaten down more RINO-type GOP-ers, lately.. Lance, too.. face it, the Gov.’s not such a great conservative, either, and methinks whichever R helped him the least may suffer.. last go-round, I think the GOP compromised far too much, look at how easy it was for Frankie P. the past 5 terms!.. THAT mess of a district sure ought to change!.. and, remember,we’ll never, in this still very P.C., lib state, see an effort to hurt the one black congressman, the Jewish one, or anyone with the best county treasuries/influence, ( mostly the big D ones) so, that leaves discomfort for two GOP-ers, in my mind, although it should be US getting the better deal, this time!.. am told we are for once, lawyered up with brilliant strategists and ready for it, but will believe it when I see how much we do give up!!