Little Wins Big At Middlesex GOP Convention
East Brunswick- Former Highlands Mayor Anna Little easily defeated Ernesto Cullari for the Middlesex GOP endorsement for Congress from New Jersey’s 6 district. The final tally was 149 to 48. The convention was held at East Brunswick High School.
Cullari was awarded the Monmouth County GOP endorsement on March 16. The nomination will be decided by Republicans at the polls on June 5th. The primary victor will take on Congressman Frank Pallone in the November 6 general election.
The convention unanimously endorsed State Senator Joe Kyrillos for U.S. Senator. Assemblywoman Donna Simon was endorsed in the special election for State Assembly from the 16th legislative district.
In a three way race for two Freeholder nominations, former Superior Court Judge Roger Daley was the big winner with 319 votes. Daley has twice previously served on the Middlesex County Freeholder Board. Edison businessman Sam Khan won the second Freeholder nomination over North Brunswick financial consultant Carlo DiLalla.
More from my site
CD-6 Primary: It will all come down to turnout
Little dropping out of U.S. Senate Race. Considering Rematch Against Pallone
Little attends Kyrillos’s fundraiser
Bayshore Tea Party Group Announces Endorsements
Little Enthusiasm For Anna
Little Announces For Congress, Claims GOP Support
Moment of False- Cullari: Little Blew It Against Pallone
Anna Little, David Corsi won’t be Tea Party candidates in GOP Primary
Cullari not deterred by GOP Split in Congressional District 6, New Jersey
Really good convention. Huge turnout.
The party had a problem in that there were three outstanding candidates for Freeholder. Unfortunately Carlo DiLalla came up short against Daley and Kahn. High probability that Anna Little will win the primary in June. Hope all Republicans in 6th CD get behind her.
It was no surprise with the backing of Sam Thompson that Anna Little got the line in Middlesex County. She will loose the primary come June 6th. She lost there in 2010 and will loose there again.
Middlesex County really showed their weakness today by selecting her for the line. In her speech she said she won 46% of the vote and came with in 5% of loosing. Well, I hate to break it to her, she lost by 11% in a Republican year.
Look at Monmouth County. Her HOME county. The people in Monmouth County know her the best and didn’t support her. What does that tell you? Middlesex really should have listened to the people of Monmouth County, unlike Middlesex, Monmouth knows how to elect Republicans for office.
And, if history has a way of repeating itself, the candidate who failed to get the line in Monmouth and got it in Middlesex looses. Again, in Monmouth County, they know how to pick winners.
Rullo attended the screening committee & the Middlesex convention. He personally introduced himself to every person he could speak to.
He attended the Middlesex convention after getting a nomination from the floor from Union County Freeholder candidate Chris Novak at the Union County convention earlier. Novak is a Union County committe person.
He also has support from elected officials around the state. Rullo decided early on not to split the party with floor fights & conventions. Rullo’s facebook announced support from a Union County coucil member today.
He spoke well at both conventions. I support Joe Rullo for Senate and I am not a Rullobot. http://www.rulloforsenate.com
Rullo is a putz.
Today we discovered which republican candidate Frank Pallone truly fears: Ernesto Cullari!
When at the Highlands St. Patrick’s Day Parade Pallone sent his aides to follow and monitor Ernesto Cullari.
Art,
I’m curious about the 2010 Republican primary turnout in this new Congressional district.
In the new district, how many voted in 2010 in Monmouth and how many in Middlesex? That will help indicate each county’s relative weight since Ernesto and Anna now have split the county endorsements.
And I wonder how Anna did in the towns in the new district, broken up by county, where she had faced Diane Gooch in 2010.
You’re a numbers guy, Art. I’m sure you have this information at your fingertips.
Dan Jacobson
Dan,
Thanks for such a good question.
My usual source of voter history, Labels and Lists, Inc, has yet to sort the history based upon the new district lines…at least its not in the data that they give away.
There are many variables from the norm that make an analysis like the one you suggest more challenging this year. The new district is just one anomaly.
Normally, one would look to the previous presidential year, 2008 in this case, to predict turnout. However, in 2008 the presidential primary was in February while the congressional primary was in June. Thus turnout numbers can’t be expected to match up well with this year’s circumstances. 2004 numbers don’t work because the President was an incumbent R. 2000 numbers are too old and W had the nomination locked up before June anyway.
It is still not known if the GOP presidential primary will matter in New Jersey this year. If Romney locks up the nomination in April or May, that will suppress turnout.
Will Anna and Ernesto be bracketed with a presidential candidate in the county that didn’t endorse them? Ernesto will be bracketed with Romney in Monmouth. Anna with Romney in Middlesex. Will they be off on their own on the ballot or under Santorum, Gingrich or Paul in the county that didn’t endorse them? Will Santorum, Gingrich and Paul even get on the ballot?
Most of these questions will be answered in April. Hopefully the data will be available then too. Then we can do the analysis.
Art,
As a former Middlesex County municipal chairman and someone with great knowledge of the voting patterns up there, I can probably give you some insight. I’ll speak more to general election vs primary as the new towns in CD 6 up there don’t have vibrant Republican organizations (mainly Woodbridge, Carteret and Perth Amboy) to say the least.
New CD 6 loses Red Bank, Plainfield, part of Franklin twp (Near New Brunswick), Neptune City, Neptune Twp, part of Manalapan,
New CD 6 adds all of Edison (formerly part) Woodbridge, Carteret, Perth Amboy, South Plainfield.
Analysis:
From a Rep/Dem perspective, in Monmouth County CD 6 becomes more Republican with the losses of Red Bank and Neptune despite losing part of Manalapan and Neptune City.
From a Rep/Dem perspective up north, becomes even more Democratic. The district loses Plainfield (where Little and any Republican will be hammered) but makes it up with all of Edison, Carteret, Perth Amboy and South Plainfield. Don’t let anyone fool you into believing Republicans can win Woodbridge because I haven’t seen it happen since Phil Ceria in the early 80’s. Christie winning Woodbridge in 2009 was a direct result from the Democratic organization hating Corzine for what he did to McCormick. Trust me McCormick is back on board and is no fan of the Republican administration in Trenton. He’s a McGreevey protege who knows how to play the game.
Perth Amboy and Carteret will more than make up for the loss of Plainfield. Both of those towns have strong Democratic organizations who are for sale and I am sure the Pallone street money will be gladly accepted. Don’t know much about South Plainfield but can’t tell you I ever met a Republican from there either.
Conclusion:
While the new CD6 is certainly geographically dominant to the north, any Republican who wants to have a shot in hell needs a major turn out in Monmouth County. The only way to win would be to avoid being blown out in Carteret, Woodbridge and the Amboys while blowing out Pallone in the Monmouth portion. As a Republican, you had better deliver Monmouth County in a big way to win CD6 because votes will be hard to come by in the new towns up there. We’ll see what each county line brings in the primary but things do not look good for Anna Little without Monmouth County’s 1000% support come November.
Kinda’ think we better get working on that 1000% support behind Chris Smith’s indefatigable effort to make a difference in Washington. He NEEDS our help. Handwriting is on the wall … we must spend all our energy on already established name recognition, visibility, and boundless door-to-door track record. …… “easily defeated” in Middlesex can be a ‘slam-dunk’ in Monmouth if we CONCENTRATE on the important issue. Healthier to heal and/or correct mistakes rather than be shot in the foot by selfishness. Rise above whatever it was … Topic of Campaign Seminars stresses the ‘grassroot’ route to victory … the positive and ONLY way!
Quick, someone get Sam Thompson to a doctor. His support of Anna Little can only mean the onset of severe neuralgia. Make it multiple appointments for the rest of Middlesex County who voted for her. And for the record “Little will Loose” it’s “lose” if someone doesn’t win, and “loose” to decribe your pants if you go on a diet and drop a lot of weight.
Thanks Mayor Fiore!
There is no question that CD-6 is still very much a D district. Your analysis is spot on.
Neither Cullari nor Little stand a very good chance come November. The same is true for Brian Froelich, the Democrat in CD-4, Chris Smith’s new Monmouth County dominated district. The new map is as much as an incumbent protection plan as the old map was.
To get back to the Cullari v Little primary and expanding on my answer to Dan, Little has the benefit of name recognition. That was very evident in Middlesex County yesterday.
Little lost the Monmouth GOP endorsement because of the what the insiders who grant the endorsement know about her. Most primary voters are not insiders, don’t know her well but do know her name from the 2010 race.
That should give her an edge in both Monmouth and Middlesex for the primary, BUT, normally primary voters are not line splitters.
Neither Little nor Cullari are likely to have much money to create a line crossing campaign. Most primary voters are going to come out to vote for Romney and then go down the line. If the presidential race is over by June, less voters will come out.
Thus, Dan’s basic point is sound. Whichever county has a higher Republican turnout will likely nominate the CD-6 candidate.
Thanks Art. Less we forget about the rest of the district with places like New Brunswick and Highland Park, Middlesex County is a Republican graveyard in CD6. Therefore, I cannot for the life of me understand why the MCRO wouldn’t want to follow Monmouth County’s lead when giving the line. Clearly the only chance of victory in CD6 is for huge pluralities in Monmouth County and keeping it relatively close up there. If the MCRO thinks that Little or Cullari will win any of the towns in Middlesex County they are sadly mistaken.
Sadly, Pallone’s biggest threat isn’t Little or Cullari. It’s Wisnewski, McCormick or Reiman. Any one of them can make a run at taking him out in a 2014 Primary if they so choose based on the new map.
Sadly, Pallone’s biggest threat isn’t Little or Cullari. It’s Wisnewski, McCormick or Reiman. Any one of them can make a run at taking him out in a 2014 Primary if they so choose based on the new map.
That would be more fun to watch than porn. Even Rick Santorum would enjoy it.
Sadly, if any Middlesex County Dem were to challenge Pallone, this would be the year to do it.
Only 200 signatures needed. One week to collect them. Let’s get McCormick to do it!
Gentlemen…all interesting thoughts (above.) Assuming that neither Mrs. Little or Mr. Cullari have much money to wage/buy any kind of media campaign/get out the vote effort, is there a scenario where either one gets any kind of serious help from the county party that they were endorsed by?
is there a scenario where either one gets any kind of serious help from the county party that they were endorsed by?
No.
The only way either party organization gets involved in the primary is if the presidential campaign is still competitive. At that point there will be money from the Romney campaign spent to boost turnout. That would benefit Cullari in Monmouth and Little in Middlesex.
I would give the edge to Monmouth/Cullari if that sceanario happens. Monmouth would do better at turning out the vote than Middlesex would.
The Middlesex GOP is much like the Monmouth Dems. Nice people who don’t have the numbers and don’t know how to win an election.
Republicans in Middlesex have had recent success on the municipal level, in Old Bridge and South Plainfield, but that success had little if anything to do with the county organization.
The Middlesex GOP has two dynamic Freeholder candidates in Roger Daley and Sam Khan. I wish them well. They should call Mayor Fiore, for advice on how to win.
The only way either party organization gets involved in the primary is if the presidential campaign is still competitive.
The Monmouth organization is getting involved in the Senate primary even if it’s uncontested.
His phone number on his campaign website is the wrong number
In order to discuss the 6th district you also have to talk about the 3rd district. From what I have read, Ernesto Cullari lives in the 3rd district. Yes, I realize that you don’t have to live in the district to run (you only have to live in the state), but generally people run outside the district they live in if they either have ties to the communities that are in that other district or they would stand a much better chance of winning or at the minimum be competitive in that district. Cullari would stand a Much better chance of unseating Jon Runyan in a primary than he would to unseat Pallone. Could he beat Pallone? Possibly, but if you examine the new district 6 Pallone gained more Democratic towns in Middlesex and if all things were equal Pallone would win by 30+ points.
Which brings up the next question: Why is Jon Runyan running uncontested in a primary? It is very rare freshman incumbents do not get challeneged. Yet we have Cullari running in district 6, Joe Rullo running for Senate, and Justin Murphy not even running at all. Seems to me party bosses (including Chris Christie) have their hands in this. I realize this is a Monmouth website and noone here really cares about Ocean or Burlington counties but this has to be brought up in reagrds to Cullari.
As far as Anna Little goes, it seems that she is making an attempt to salvage a political career (at least on a Federal level) that looks like its just about over. Even Anna Little knew originally not to run in this district in 2012 because she knew the numbers would not be in her favor (worse than 2010). What Anna Little was attempting to do, in my opinion, was to gain some traction in the Senate primary that would help her later on. She would use this in the case of Pallone leaving the 6th either to retirement or to run for Senate or if Chris Smith decided to retire in the 4th distrct. She didnt anticipate the fact that she would struggle to even get the signatures required to get on the ballot.
Little has ZERO chance of ever getting the nomination in CD 4.
As for Cullari, I heard he was from Asbury Park. Since when did Asbury turn into CD3? It’s CD6 from every map I’ve seen.
@ Robert. Rullo is the last republican in NJ who answers to anyone, lol. The phone number is correct it is false information as well second poster. http://www.rulloforsenate.com
@Little
Anna Little wouldnt run in CD 4 at least not in 2012. You do have to admit though, it is realistic that within the next 10 years that Chris Smith may retire. If that is a possibility, Anna Little may be eyeing running in the 4th down the road.
If Cullari is from Asbury, then I could see why he would run in the 6th. From what I heard, he currently lives in Ocean Co. and as I mentioned his chances of winning in the 3rd are much more greater than the 6th. But whatever, I really dont care for the Tea Partys views anyway as they are not true Tea Party values.
@Rullo4Senate
If Rullo doesnt answer to anyone, then maybe he should explain why he isnt challenging Runyan in the 3rd? Rullo, like the other 2 possibilities, would stand a greater chance of winning the primary in the 3rd then he would at a Senate nomination. I already know Murphy was squeezed by the establishment not to run again, whos to say the same didnt happen to Rullo? I realize running for office is a very tall task. But why would Rullo, in 2010, all of a sudden drop out of the race in the 3rd with only a few months to go? He was a guy, as you claim in your reply, doesnt answer to anyone in the GOP. He went on saying he was going to be in it till the end (2010). Opened up an office, launched a website and filed with the FEC. Even if he had gotten the signature requirement and wouldve gotten some support in the primary he couldve at least said he finished what he started. Instead he drops out, goes right on board with the Runyan train, then watched Runyan personally attack Justin Murphy (a guy who considers Murphy a friend) and doesnt even stick up for the guy.
I give Rullo a lot of credit for running for office (even though I dont agree with his views), but I believe Rullo was also squeezed by Gilmore, Layton, Paulsen and Christie not to run in the 3rd as Runyan is “off limits”. At least in 2012 he is.
Why is Joe Rullo considered a candidate for anything? This guy has done absolutely nothing except try and sell his stupid solar panels. I’ve seen high school seniors who served on their student councils with more impressive political resumes than this joker. I am holding out hope that Rullo running for office is just an overlong April Fool’s joke that will be over next Sunday. Ok – next Sunday everyone yell “April Rullos” and we can back to the serious business of picking viable candidates.
@ Rob. Rullo is running for US Senate not for Congress, and is a repubican who supports Congressman Jon Runyan no secret. There would be no reason Rullo would challenge an incumbent Republican, and I can assure you based on not getting nomination in Ocean County or Burlington Rullo has no deals, lol. As far as Justin Murphy goes he is not trusted by the regular GOP of OC so there is definately no deal. Not sure why you are thinking conspiracy theory? Good luck on your run against Runyan with all due respect. You are definately better than Adler.
@ Reality Check. Your false comments & attacks on Mr. Rullo is not worth making any comments to. Have a great day at work tomorrow, lol.
Why did you have to get the Rullobots going? Go back to work for Kyrillos at your state job tomorrow reality check.
Ernesto Cullari has lived in the 6th district for 10 years in Asbury Park.
[…] Party activist Anna Little (R-Highlands) won the backing of Middlesex County’s Republican organization over the weekend, 149 to 48, over her sole primary competitor for this cycle’s NJ-6 GOP […]
Few thoughts:
If/when Chris Smith does retire, I would expect to see multiple candidates (who already hold an elected office) on each side of the aisle trying to lay claim to his seat. Nothing against Mrs. Little, but I don’t think she would do well under those circumstances.
I’m struggling to remember any NJ Congressman or Senator losing a primary challange in recent memory. Help anyone??? Last time I can think of that happening was in 1976 when Jeff Bell defeated 4 term Reupublican Senator Clifford Case only to lose in a landslide in the general election to Bill Bradley.
With Runyan facing a strong challange in the general election (and with the President on top fo the ticket) I would think that strictly form a party loyalty point of view, this would not be the year to challange him in a R primary (which would have a very low chance of the challanger being successful and possibly weaken him just enough to cost him the general election)
Just got this from Culluri article post. Kyrillos lost to Pallone in 1992? Interesting!
Frank Pallone, Jr., Democrat 118,266
Joseph M. Kyrillos, Republican 100,949
with good records have fallen to the “FrankMachine”: (Assemb.)Joe Azzolina, (Assemb.) Steve Corodemus, (Sen.) Joe Kyrillos, (Councilman/Judge) Paul Kapalko, ( Mayor) Little, (Sen.) Brian Kennedy, as well as a few newbies: the scenario’s always the same: he doesn’t mention his opponent’s name the whole time, uses the exact same signs, stickers, etc., buys ads in every single charity ad journal and local paper in the district, and has the best “knock-and-drag” operation out of the union halls, on election day.. a true lesson in futility/frustration: here’s a guy totally averse to just about all issues, who never did a blasted thing to “save the Fort,” authored the 70%-unpopular Obamacare bill, flip-flopped on many things, especially from being -ro-life to vehemently pro-life, on and on, but, the dopes vote for the same old familiar name, every time.. very sad, am glad to be out of that district!!..
vehemently pro-CHOICE, now..
Rullo For Senate: I would appreciate it if you could reply to the following…and note that I am asking a respectful way since I do not have a dog in the race.
1) Outside of what I have read on MMM, I have never heard of Mr. Rullo or do I recall ever seen anything written about him. I did recently look at his website and looked at a couple of videos. My question than would be, in view of the fact that Mr. Kryillos seems to have a virtual lock on the County endorsements, the support of the Gov and is somewhat known in the State (although not well known) thru his time in the Legislature, through what channels or means is Mr. Rullo going to be possibly be able to build enough support to mount a serious challange by primary day? In all honosty, the only way I can think of for a virtual unknown at this point to get some statewide name recognition from Republican primary voters would be through extremely costly tv and radio advertising (in the NY and Phili markets.)
I agree with one of the previous posters that the 2010 primary race against Runyan would have seemed to have been the logical race for Mr. Rullos to pursue however that was certainly up to Mr. Rullo whether to do that or not.
Not taking anything away from any elective office Mr. Rullo might want to pursue in the future, from an outsides perspective, I dont see how the 2012 R Senate candidate is going to be anybody but Mr. Kryillos.
woops…sorry about the typos above. I can spell just don’t type very well.
@ Bob. Rullo has relentlessly attended 100s of events since October 2011 months before Kyrillos was on the map.
Rullo to date has met with almost every Tea Party around the state, and participated in their debate forums. Mr. Kyrillos was no show at all events.
Rullo attended all state plan meetings around the state, and is speaking to republican clubs around the state.
Rullo is recognized by key republicans in the state as a valuable operative for the GOP.
Rullo built a massive internet search presence, and is working the local radio station circuit.
Rullo is a putz. 〜
when the Primary’s over, we need to get past all the strong feelings, pro and con, on this Rullo guy, who will be another “also-ran” on June 6, and focus on beating all these socialist- Marxists in the Dem column!…..