LD 11…..2013

By Matthew Gould, cross posted at Republican Out Of The Blue

It is no secret that the Republican field in New Jersey’s 11th legislative district ran a tough campaign this election cycle with mail pieces, some controversial, going out almost daily leading up to the election (I had the pleasure of getting 2 in one day), robocalls from everyone and their mother, door knocking and lots of fundraising. But the question is why? Why are these three popular incumbents running like their seat depends on it when the 2011 election pretty much became a lock when the Democrats announced their field?

The answer is 2013. The Republicans were 1% worried about 2011 and 99% worried about 2013

The next time New Jerseyians vote for a new state legislature is 726 days from now for those who are counting. By then the London Summer Olympics will have ended, we will hopefully still be here (granted the end of the world predictions are wrong), if all goes accordingly we will have a new President of the United States and Chris Christie will be so popular there wont even be a need for an election in New Jersey. Well that last one is a bit far fetched. But there is still a question as to why the District 11 incumbents are so concerned with 2013 and I think I have an answer for you.

Background

• The redrawn 11th district gave democrats a voter registration advantage over Republicans of approximately 10,000, removing Republican heavy Wall Twp. and Rumson from the district and adding the Democrat saturated towns of Asbury Park, Neptune, Ocean and Long Branch. 
• Asbury Park, Neptune and Ocean are home to a large number of minority voters. 
• In 2009 Chris Christie won the new LD-11 65%-35% over unpopular incumbent John Corzine.
• The Democrat map, which was chosen by Alan Rosenthal, the 11th member of the redistricting team put the 11th district in play.

What does this all mean? After the map was drawn parties only had a limited number of days to recruit candidates to run for office. The Republican Party had the clear advantage in the process as the LD-11 looped three Republican incumbents together, all with established support and campaign structures. The Democrats on the other hand were rushed to choose candidates, all of whom would be running for the first time. On top of that the Republicans had candidates in numerous other districts, most notable, 1,2,7,14,18 and 38 who were able to divert the resources of the Democrat State Committee Unions and big democratic donors from seats like LD-11 that could be possible pick ups to seats they needed to save.

In 2013 Gov. Christie will be running for re-election and although there is no clear cut Democratic challenger there is a chance Newark mayor Cory Booker will be nominated. Bookers possible nomination plays a big roll in the outcome of the Legislative election in D-11 come 2013. Why so much emphasis on Cory Booker? Mr. Booker has become somewhat of a popular national figure having appeared on The Oprah Winfrey show with Facebook founder Mark Zuckerburg to receive a $100 million dollar grant for Newark Public schools, he is everywhere on twitter, pioneering the way politicians use the popular social media site, his nationwide appeal opens the door for large amounts of out of state money, especially in an off year gubernatorial election where the democrats will be looking to take back the governors mansion and the NJEA will work tirelessly and spend millions of dollars of membership dues to take Christie out and Mr. Booker is a very popular minority politician.

I will be willing to bet a large amount of money that the democrats will be targeting the 11th district in 2013 not only as a possible pick up in the Legislature but for big democratic turn out in the gubernatorial election. This would hold especially true if Cory Booker were to get the nomination. The New Jersey democrats look at Cory Booker as an Obama type politician; charismatic, excellent communicator and campaigner and a candidate that will spark enthusiasm among minority voters. This spells possible trouble for the Republicans in district 11 come 2013, especially in towns with a large minority population, Asbury Park, Neptune and Long Branch, all of which are additions for to the 11th district for Casagrande who has very little name recognition in these towns. Mary Pat Angelini has had Asbury Park, Neptune and Long Branch in her district for sometime now so she has a slight advantage when it comes to name recognition especially since most of the towns she had not represented in the old 11th district are Republican strong holds.

This leads us back to the 2011 mid-term elections and the tough campaign the LD-11 Republican team   ran. I don’t think it is because they were worried about their democratic challengers in this election cycle but because of their concern for 2013.

None of this is set in stone, a lot can still change in 726 days. It is not known who the Democrats will nominate as their gubernatorial candidate (Republicans get to sit back and watch the bickering for once), the Republicans will not let such a large portion of Monmouth County, which produced a large plurality for Christie in 2009 fall by the wayside, money will flow in from out of state sources for both parties and the Republicans may have an ally in the White House come 2013, especially if Mitt Romney, a close Christie ally, gets the republican nomination and wins the White House and Gov. Christies popularity continues to rise as the state see’s results from his policies. Heck, there are hundreds of factors that will play into 2013 but it seems to me like Beck, Angelini and Casagrande are taking nothing for granted. A move, I think will pay off in 2 years.

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Percentages

In “vote for two”  races, like Assembly, Council or Township Committee races, the percentages for each candidate are reported by the total of votes cast in that race, not by the number of voters who voted.

For example, in the 11th district Assembly race, Caroline Casagrande was the top vote getter with 18,679 votes.  There were 69,803 Assembly votes cast and 3799 under votes.  “Under votes” are voters who did not cast two votes in the Assembly race.  It could be voters who didn’t vote for Assembly at all or voters who cast one vote rather than two.   The County Clerk’s website reports that Casagrande received 26.76% of the vote.

The math is confusing. 

Fortunately we can look to the “vote for one” races, like the Senate races, to get a clearer picture of what happened.

In the 11th district Senate race there were 35,620 votes cast and 1240 under votes.  From this we can conclude that 36,860 people came out to vote in the district.  Jennifer Beck won handily with 56.59% of the Senate votes cast.  She earned the vote of 54.68% of the voters who came out.

Thus, Casagrande earned 50.68% of the votes of all voters who came out in the district, including those who skipped voting  in the Assembly race or only voted for one Assembly candidate rather than two.  Mary Pat Angelini got 49.97%, Vin Gopal got 41.60%, Kathy Horgan got 40.89% and Dan Jacobson received 6.35%.

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A Message to Dan Jacobson from Tommy DeSeno:

In the words of Teddy Roosevelt,

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”

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Republicans Win In Old Bridge

In one of the few area upsets, Old Bridge voters ousted Democrats after 14 years of control by electing Republican Owen Henry to the mayor’s office and his council running mates James Anderson, Eleanor “Debbie” Walker and Brian Cahill.

Henry defeated incumbent Mayor Patrick Gillespe 5,330 to 4,780.

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Brookdale Trustees sought

Monmouth County residents can apply for the three open seats

Today is the deadline to apply

FREEHOLD, NJ – The Brookdale Community College Trustee Search Committee is seeking resumes for three open seats on the college’s Board of Trustees.

Applicants should be interested in taking an active leadership role as a Trustee of Brookdale Community College and be knowledgeable in the opportunities and challenges of higher education and be willing to serve in this unpaid position for a term of four years.

“This is a terrific opportunity for a resident to take a dynamic role at New Jersey’s best community college,” Freeholder Deputy Director John P. Curley said. “Brookdale needs leaders who will help steer the course of this quality, affordable higher education institution.”

An applicant must be resident of Monmouth County for at least the last four years, and not currently an elected public official.

Any interested individual should submit a resume to the Brookdale Trustee Search Committee c/o Marion Masnick, Clerk of the Board, Monmouth County Board of Chosen Freeholders, Hall of Records, 1 East Main St., Freehold, New Jersey 07728.

All resumes must be received in the Clerk of the Board’s Office by 4:30p.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 9.

Prior applicants are urged to update their resumes even if they are still on file and/or to express their continued interest.

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GOP Sweep!

All Monmouth County and State offices have been won by the GOP, which includes the defeat of Amy Mallet, the only Democrat incumbent county-wide or State office holder in Monmouth. Buh-bye Amy!

Dan Jacobson got less than 4% of the vote. See, the voters aren’t so dumb!

Now Vin can go back and work as an operative for corrupt Democrats.

Now we know how little gay marriage means to the electorate.

Congrats to all the winners!

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Election Day Observations

Please feel free to post your observations and comments in the comments section. I have a few to share:

Turnout seems wildly inconsistent so far. What’s it look like in your District/Town?

The Red Bank muster zone was surprisingly empty this morning, I guess the bus to take them all to vote Democrat was there early.

The Holmdel Democrats Campaign sign: “Solutions that Work”. Well, Duh. Otherwise they wouldn’t be called SOLUTIONS, idiots.

Speaking of campaign signs, did you notice that most GOP signs refer to “taxpayers” and most Democrat signs refer to “workers” and “families”? Hmmm.

Also, in many of our more rural towns, the Democrats place signs on public property, and the GOP signs are in front of homes where…families live. Interesting.

Mayor Hornik has his large sign in front of the Marlboro Swim Club. Is that allowed?

Add your thoughts in the comments.

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Factually Correct Mail Piece Update

I just saw the mail piece that everyone is up in arms about. You know what? It’s not so bad. No worse than the “Dr. No” piece sent out by the Democrats, or the one with a crying little boy clutching a teddy bear.

In fact, I bet the piece wins an award. It’s really good.

Gopal’s protests still have not explained his relationship with Chaipppone, the other convict he worked for. Why the silence, Vin?

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Kiss Your Own Damn Baby! And How To Garner 11% Of The Vote

By Tommy DeSeno, also published at ricochet.com

An old friend of mine is running for state Assembly in New Jersey.   He is an independent, and has one of the more interesting campaigns you will see.

Dan Jacobson served one term in the Assembly over 20 years ago when he was in his 20s – as a Democrat.

As a more mature adult today, he has thrown off the barbed reins of the Democratic dark side.  He now sees himself as fiscally conservative as the rest of us, ranting in his weekly newspaper (disclaimer – I used to rant in columns for it) about the problems with unions and politics, among other issues Republicans would like.  

On social issues he is a Libertarian, though a bit libertine for some tastes.  The only thing left of his old Democrat ways as far as I can tell is that Dan doesn’t seem to know what a baby is or where one hangs out the first 9 months of his or her life.

Which is probably why he won’t kiss yours.

What truly makes his campaign interesting is the way he runs it:  He takes no donations.   He seeks no endorsements.   He holds no rallies.  He has no staff.  He networks with no one. 

Truly independent!    His goal seems to be a campaign that isn’t one, by a candidate who refuses to be one; thus his refusal to honor the political tradition of kissing your baby. He wants to go to Trenton not owing anyone anything.  Good luck with that, Dan.

I once ran a political experiment and found that a truly independent candidate who runs only on issues and seeks no endorsements gets 11% of the vote.  That’s important  – every campaign manager in America should know that issues will garner 11% of the vote.  I predict Dan will get 11% of the vote. 

In the meantime, check out more of his funny newspaper ads that he has run about his campaign.  They are different, and it will make you smile that this campaign is real:

http://danjacobson.net/ads.html

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Election Day is Tomorrow!

Some developments across our reader area:

Mary Pat Angelini has been endorsed by Democratic Mayor Adam Schneider of Long Branch:

From the Desk of
Mayor Adam Schneider
1141 Lincoln Square, Long Branch, NJ 07740

November, 2011

Dear Friend,

We have a very important election next week, and I’m writing to ask you to vote for my friend and our advocate, Mary Pat Angelini for the State Assembly.
I have known Mary Pat and her husband Bob for many years. Mary Pat is a smart, dedicated, compassionate and open-minded person, who will be a great representative of Long Branch and all of the communities in the 11th Legislative District.

I am a Democrat, although I have always believed that voting for the best person is the most important thing. As Long Branch Mayor, I have worked with people of all party affiliations in order to get things done. Mary Pat has been the same way in Trenton and she can put aside philosophical differences to do what’s right for her community.

With our economy facing so many problems, we can’t afford to send the wrong people to Trenton. We need all the smart and effective people we can get in government, regardless of party. That’s why I’m asking you to vote for Mary Pat Angelini for Assembly.

Please make sure you vote on Tuesday, Nov. 8.

Sincerely
Adam Schneider

Long Branch Mayor
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The Princeton Packet has endorsed a Republican for Mayor of Princeton Borough:

Princeton Borough has an opportunity next week to elect a mayor who will lead the town through some challenging times.

Should consolidation pass, the mayor will be the one to guide the borough into unity with the township. Should it fail, the mayor will have to heal the wounds and move on.

Jill Jachera has the skills, intelligence, experience and leadership abilities to best get the job done.

When speaking with her about the issues or asking about her plans for the borough’s future, her answers are thoughtful, structured, clear and concise.

A lawyer by profession, her training would be helpful in dealing with the needs of the town. She would be focused on how to accomplish what must be done if there is a transition of governments.    Her background would make her function as a strong advocate for the residents and their needs.

During two sessions to discuss the issues here at the Packet with her opponent, Yina Moore, Ms. Jachera’s answers demonstrated her grasp of what needs to be done. She proved she is able to present herself well and think on her feet.

She was frustrated by the lack of public debates and so were we. It is hard to believe that her opponent could not have found the time to debate had she so desired.

We think Ms. Jachera would bring a fresh approach and new energy to the office of mayor.

While relatively new to politics, that is not a negative. She would come into office very much free of the political baggage that is so prevalent in the borough. She is not an insider. Her allegiance would be to the people.

We also know where she stands on the issues, particularly on consolidation, which she has clearly stated she supports.

We find her opponent’s unwillingness to take a public position on what is the most important issue on the ballot to be a serious flaw in leadership, accountability, transparency and judgment.

Although her opponent is a graduate of Princeton, Ms Jachera has made improving relations and communications with the university a priority, which is something that needs to be done.While she is running as a Republican in a very much Democrat community, Ms. Jachera has shown she can work with people of either party. Indeed, she says it was Democrats who convinced her to run.

When it comes to a community the size of Princeton Borough, party politics simply should not be the deciding factor. Party politics is what is wrong with government from Washington to Trenton.

It doesn’t belong where the issues are local. What difference does it make if the person who is representing the residents’ needs of public safety, taxes, public services and recreation votes blue or red on national or state issues?

We think Jill Jachera is the best choice to be mayor for all of the residents of the borough and will breathe new life into the office.

This is an interesting race. The Democrats have a vice-like grip on local government in the Borough. Congressman Rush Holt has been involved in the local race. The Democrats major complaint about Jachera? “She works for a law firm that represents Municipalities against Labor unions.”

Hum…yeah, that’s a bad thing? Shows how out of touch The Princeton Democrats are with the current times.
______________________________________________________________________

In other local elections, Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornik still has a huge ego, despite not improving conditions in Marlboro at all.

In Pt. Pleasant Beach, the Democratic candidate has dropped out, and endorsed the GOP candidate over the Independent, incumbent former GOP Mayor.

In Red Bank, Grace Cangemi deserves to win.

In Monmouth County, The Neptune Nudniks completely dropped the ball by endorsing an incumbent democrat and an independent for the Freeholder spots. I doubt it will make a difference, as there are only about 17 people that still read the paper.

In Highlands, Art Gallagher is still on the ballot!

In Old Bridge, the GOP is making a huge fight of it, and looking to tear the Democrat machine down. The Democrats have voted huge benefits for union employees, over the objection and admonishment from the State DCA, and a Democrat operative has been arrested for vandalizing the GOP headquarters. You can’t make this stuff up.

In Eatontown, LG Kim Guadagno will be helping to get out the vote this afternoon, at the Eatontown/11th District headquarters on Highway 35.

In Marlboro, the huge ego of Jon Hornik may not be re-elected, dashing all hopes for a democrat to make a race of the next state legislative election.

Post your local election tidbits in the comments!

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